The Vineyard of the Saker
Why Iran won’t be broken
Pepe Escobar
Friday, June 26, 2020
Why Iran won’t be broken — Pepe Escobar
The Vineyard of the Saker
Why Iran won’t be broken
Why I Voted for "The Russian Amendment" to the Russian Constitution — Anatoly Karlin
Backgrounder by a self-identified "nationalist."
Why I Voted for "The Russian Amendment" to the Russian Constitution
Anatoly Karlin
See also
While I support the right not to be discriminated against based on age, sexual preference, gender, ethnicity, etc., I think it is overreach for one entity to attempt to impose its values on another, which is a continual bone of contention between liberalism and traditionalism.
The historical dialectic between liberalism and traditionalism is one of the dominant theme of this age. Each society will have to handle it in its own way and at its own pace for the process to be relatively peaceful.
The Vineyard of the Saker
US Ambassador posts a message to the Russian people
See also
While I support the right not to be discriminated against based on age, sexual preference, gender, ethnicity, etc., I think it is overreach for one entity to attempt to impose its values on another, which is a continual bone of contention between liberalism and traditionalism.
The historical dialectic between liberalism and traditionalism is one of the dominant theme of this age. Each society will have to handle it in its own way and at its own pace for the process to be relatively peaceful.
The Vineyard of the Saker
US Ambassador posts a message to the Russian people
The Saker
TASS NATO’s budget is 20 times Russia’s military spending, says envoy
As a result of NATO’s "soaring" military activity an unpredictable military-political situation is unfolding, according to the chief Russian delegate"Unstable" is probably a better term than "unpredictable."
The difference is that NATO's force is offensive, while Russia's is defensive. It's much less costly in terms of resources to defend rather than attack. Dollar amounts are deceptive. It's "bang for the buck."
"We see the NATO countries’ attempts at gaining military superiority. There is not a hint at restraint in military spending. The alliance’s overall military budget is 20 times Russia’s defense budget," Vorobyov said.Russia will make it continually more costly for NATO to "dominate." Actually, according to military analyst Andrei Martyanov, NATO already lost dominance some time ago, even disregarding MAD, owing to advanced weaponry.
Sputnik — China Reportedly Warns US That Trade Deal Will Be at Risk if Washington Crosses 'Red Lines'
Sputnik International
China Reportedly Warns US That Trade Deal Will Be at Risk if Washington Crosses 'Red Lines'
Henry Wallace, American Visionary — Jeremy Kuzmarov
Over fifty years after his death, Henry A. Wallace, America’s Vice President from 1941-1945 and an independent candidate for president in the 1948 election, continues to evoke strong emotions. On the left, Wallace remains a figure of veneration for his progressive ideals and promotion of world peace, while among conservative and centrist Democrats, he is considered a naïve dupe of communists who underestimated the Soviet “threat.”
John Nichols’ latest book, The Fight For the Soul of the Democratic Party: The Enduring Legacy of Henry Wallace’s AntiFascist, Antiracist Politics(Verso, 2020) offers a convincing case that those on the left were correct: that Wallace was indeed a visionary who was ahead of his time in warning about a right-wing drift in American politics and danger of corporate fascism and whose policy of cooperation with the Russians might have averted the Cold War.
According to Nichols’, Wallace’s removal from the Democratic Party ticket due to back-door machinations at the 1944 Democratic Party convention in Chicago, was a major turning point in American political history. It began the Democratic Party’s trajectory away from the progressive ideals underlying Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, and towards the embrace of neoliberalism. Nichols in turn believes that the time is ripe for a new generation of Democratic Party leaders to reclaim Wallace’s legacy, and revitalize his political platform, which centered on promoting racial and gender equality and the interests of American working people, and advancing a peaceful foreign policy....Perhaps the sharpest blow to the US strategically in the past hundred year was the replacement of Henry Wallace with Harry Truman in what would be FDR's last term in office. There is a temptation to view America's "problems" as recent. They began back then and now are coming to a head with nuclear war looming abroad and incipient civil war brewing at home. Neither the Cold War nor the Civil War ever actually ended.
We cannot know for sure if things would have turned out better if Wallace had won the re-nomination and succeeded FDR as President. It is quite possible that there would have been a conservative backlash against Wallace that would have thwarted many of his plans or led to his removal from power. However, there is also the possibility that Wallace could have governed effectively and built a consensus around his ideals and changed America’s political landscape in a more progressive direction....Nichols also points out that many of today's "progressives" are not traditional progressives in the vein of Henry Wallace or George McGovern, but rather exhibit neoliberal and neoconservative tendencies.
RT — India Blocks Imports of US Products Made in China Following Deadly Border Clash
India decoupling from China.
RT
India Blocks Imports of US Products Made in China Following Deadly Border Clash
See also
India has long been well-known for its endemic corruption. Now sectarian nationalism is rearing its ugly head in the land of the rishis.
India has neither recovered from the British Raj nor has it yet discovered how to do this As a result it remains in a colonial state with the elite now looking to the American Empire to save it from itself before it implodes.
Counterpunch
Capitalism and the Throttling of Democracy in India
Colin Todhunter
Also
Sputnik International
‘Did China Encroach Our Land?’ India’s Congress Nudges Prime Minister Modi Over Ladakh Conflict
Live Attenuated Vaccines Could Protect against Most Severe COVID-19 Symptoms
Dr. Paul Fidel, Jr., from Louisiana State University Health – School of Dentistry and Professor Mairi Noverr from Tulane University School of Medicine propose the concept that administration of an unrelated live attenuated vaccine, such as the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine, could serve as a preventive measure against the worst sequelae of COVID-19.
COVID-19 has not had a big impact on children, and the authors hypothesize that one reason children are protected against viral infections that induce sepsis is their more recent and more frequent exposures to live attenuated vaccines that can also induce the trained suppressive MDSCs that limit inflammation and sepsis.
Sci News
Live Attenuated Vaccines Could Protect against Most Severe COVID-19 Symptoms
COVID-19 has not had a big impact on children, and the authors hypothesize that one reason children are protected against viral infections that induce sepsis is their more recent and more frequent exposures to live attenuated vaccines that can also induce the trained suppressive MDSCs that limit inflammation and sepsis.
Sci News
Live Attenuated Vaccines Could Protect against Most Severe COVID-19 Symptoms
Don't Blame Modi for 'No Intrusion' Claim, Blame Him for Dramatic Shift in China Policy — Prem Shankar Jha
The Wire (India)
Don't Blame Modi for 'No Intrusion' Claim, Blame Him for Dramatic Shift in China Policy
Prem Shankar Jha
Debunking the myth of ‘helicopter money’ — Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
This post is from last April. It is an excellent summary of contemporary issues, so here is again now these issues are coming to the fore owing to the publication of Stephanie Kelton's The Deficit Myth. It shows how most of the critiques aimed at MMT miss the mark since MMT doesn't hold those positions they attribute to it.
Japan Times
Debunking the myth of ‘helicopter money’
Yeva Nersisyan, associate professor of economics at Franklin & Marshall College, and L. Randall Wray is a professor of economics at Bard College and a senior scholar at the Levy Economics Institute
Originally published at Project Syndicate
Stephanie Kelton Cracks Best Seller List — Stony Brook University News
The latest book by Stony Brook’s Stephanie Kelton, The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, has been named to The New York Times best seller list for hardcover nonfiction. A professor of economics and public policy in the College of Arts and Sciences, Dr. Kelton is a leading authority on Modern Monetary Theory, an approach to economics that is drawing great interest worldwide.Stony Brook University News
Stephanie Kelton Cracks Best Seller List
The Case for a Job Guarantee by Pavlina R. Tcherneva available in the US today
Available at booksellers in the US today. It was released in Europe previously.
Wiley
The Case for a Job Guarantee
Pavlina R. Tcherneva
Book Review: The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy by Stephanie Kelton — Hans G. Despain
In The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, Stephanie Kelton dispels six key myths that have shaped the conventional understanding of deficits as inherently bad, instead arguing that deficits can strengthen economies and lead to faster growth. This book is a triumph, writes Professor Hans G. Despain, shifting normative grounds of government spending away from the false and unproductive idea that deficits are irresponsible and ruinous towards the productive political activity of deciding which spending programmes should be prioritised.LSE Blog
Book Review: The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy by Stephanie Kelton
Hans G. Despain, PhD | Professor of Political Economy at Nichols College
Ikea cute little dog commercial
I loved this when it first came out. I've been looking for it on YouTube for years, and today I found it.
The Pandemic’s Worst-Case Scenario Is Unfolding in Brazil
It's behind a paywall today, but I did manage to read it yesterday. You might get a free view.
'One day in April, he visited the morgue in the capital, Belém. “There were 120 bodies, scattered everywhere. It’s something you’d see in a war.”Bloomberg
Spain sees infections rise, grim economic forecast
IMF predicts Spain’s economy will shrink by an unprecedented 12.8% this year
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published grim expectations for Spain’s economy this year, the country registered an uptick in new COVID-19 infections again on Wednesday.
The Ministry of Health confirmed 334 new COVID-19 infections, up nearly 100 from Tuesday. Two more deaths were also reported, which raised the total number of confirmed fatalities to 28,327.
Besides having one of the highest mortality and infection rates per capita in the world from the infectious disease, the IMF now predicts Spain is set to take one of the world’s biggest financial hits from the coronavirus.
Texas Orders Bars To Close As Hospitals Flooded With Patients Amid Record Surge In COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates
Abbott orders taverns to close
Texas Gov expected to roll back reopening measures after announcing 'pause'
US sees second straight record jump in daily new cases
India cases top 500k after another record jump
Almost all US states seeing biggest jump in cases are located in south, west
Japan reports 100 new cases, biggest spike in weeks
Beijing unwinds more restrictions after latest cluster scare
Zero Edge
Texas Orders Bars To Close As Hospitals Flooded With Patients Amid Record Surge In COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates
Texas Gov expected to roll back reopening measures after announcing 'pause'
US sees second straight record jump in daily new cases
India cases top 500k after another record jump
Almost all US states seeing biggest jump in cases are located in south, west
Japan reports 100 new cases, biggest spike in weeks
Beijing unwinds more restrictions after latest cluster scare
Zero Edge
Texas Orders Bars To Close As Hospitals Flooded With Patients Amid Record Surge In COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates
Thursday, June 25, 2020
Russia Develops Drone-Disabling Systems To Protect Oil Facilities — Charles Kennedy
Innovation.
Oilprice.com
Russia Develops Drone-Disabling Systems To Protect Oil Facilities
Charles Kennedy
For the first time, the majority of people under 16 in America are nonwhite and Hispanic — Connie Lin
The next generation of US voters that will be replacing the boomers.
For the first time, the majority of people under 16 in America are nonwhite and Hispanic
Connie Lin
Funding deficits with cash, not bonds could help avoid oversized stimulus debt — Felix Salmon
My thought bubble: There's a paradox here. The people who want to print money to avoid adding to the national debt are also the people who say that the size of the national debt doesn't matter. The hope is that monetization would placate the deficit hawks, but that seems unlikely.Yes, it is only a paradox and not a contradiction. A paradox appears to be a contradiction but it not on analysis.
There are several reasons that some MMT economists favor not necessarily offsetting fiscal deficits with interest-bearing government securities.
In the first place, it is not necessary operationally. Therefore, since public payments are involved, the question arises about public purpose or some others justification based on public interest — instead of being directed toward special interests.
The obvious fact is that the policy of paying interest on public debt favors savers, for two reasons. First, owing to the interest and also owing to default-free risk. Why is paying interest to hold default-free securities not a favor to those that save. Is it in the public purpose to encourage saving?
Those who say that favoring savers is beneficial in that it provides funds for lending are mistaken. Saving doesn't cause investment, but rather investment causes saving, in that saving is the residual of income after consumption. New money is either issued by the currency issuer or results from credit extension by banks that have access to the central bank. No prior saving needed.
There could be public interest in providing default-risk free securities at interest even though it is not necessary operationally. For example, it is argued that this provision of "safe assets" reduces systemic risk. It also plays a role in the operation of the monetary and financial system. For example, debt issuance is used in monetary operations when the central bank is not setting the policy rate directly. Government securities are also the highest form of collateral.
While Bill Mitchell recommends ending the subsidy to savers as waste, since it is not needed operationally, Warren Mosler recommends limiting securities issuance to the short-term.
On the other hand, some argue, and I assume that Stephanie Kelton is in this group, that although securities issuance is not necessary operationally, there is widespread belief that it is. "Monetizing" as least part of the deficit instead of offsetting it with securities would break that false view.
One more observation is in order here. Paying interest on the debt adds spendable funds to the economy and it is therefore more inflationary than not doing so. Under ordinary circumstances, this might not show up. However, under current thinking, raising the policy rate and thereby increasing interest rates over the curve, is the preferred tool of monetary policy, in the belief that raising interest rates across the board dampens investment and cools inflationary pressure. But as rates rise, government securities pay higher interest and that adds spendable funds, increasing inflationary pressure.
While there is no operational problem in increasing the government's interest burden, since the interest is paid with issuance, there could be a problem with exacerbating inflation when inflationary pressure is rising owing to monetary policy as currently administered.
Paradox resolved.
Axios
Funding deficits with cash, not bonds could help avoid oversized stimulus debt
Unless there is major rent reform we’re going to see a horrible meltdown than the downward — Richard Murphy
...radical thinking is required now or the rental sector is itself going to collapse...Debt deflation creeping up?
Tax Research UK
Unless there is major rent reform we’re going to see a horrible meltdown than the downward
Richard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forum
Unless there is major rent reform we’re going to see a horrible meltdown than the downward
Richard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forum
Harmful State Cuts Loom Without More Federal Aid — Wesley Tharpe
State and local policymakers are waiting as long as they can to impose cuts, partly because they hope that the President and Congress will deliver more aid, and partly so they can get a better sense of the crisis’ magnitude. The economic collapse happened fast and some tax revenue isn’t due yet; most states delayed income tax filing deadlines to at least July 15 (to conform to the federal delay), with others also delaying deadlines for businesses to remit sales tax.
With business closures and layoffs sharply reducing states’ expected income and sales tax revenues, we estimate that state budget shortfalls will total about $615 billion over the current fiscal year (which ends June 30 in most states) and the next two. States must balance their budgets every year, even in recessions, setting the stage for layoffs and punishing cuts to essential services....Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Harmful State Cuts Loom Without More Federal Aid
Wesley Tharpe, Deputy Director, State Policy Research
Also at CBPP
Some wrongly argue that federal policymakers should “wait and see” before giving states more fiscal aid to help address their huge, recession-driven revenue shortfalls, in part because they haven’t spent all the aid they’ve received so far. States, however, have good reasons not to spend all of that aid just yet. And, in any case, they’ll need far more to address their extraordinary shortfalls and avoid further layoffs and other cuts that would hamper an economic recovery.
Business closures and lost income and jobs — including some 1.5 million furloughs and layoffs of state and local workers — have severely shrunk states’ sales and income tax revenues. All 39 states (plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico) that have released new revenue projections are reporting shortfalls, generally very large ones. Nationwide, we estimate, these shortfalls total about $615 billion over the next three fiscal years, not including the added costs of fighting COVID-19.
The federal aid to states thus far includes only about $70 billion to address these revenue losses. That’s far too little to help states avoid layoffs and impose school funding and other cuts that would harm families and communities while making the recession worse and delaying a recovery. States undoubtedly will spend all of that aid and still fall far short of meeting needs....
Good Reasons Why States Haven’t Yet Spent All Coronavirus Relief Funds
Michael Leachman | Vice President for State Fiscal Policy at CBPP
Michael Leachman | Vice President for State Fiscal Policy at CBPP
No More Free-Lunch Bailouts — Mariana Mazzucato
With governments spending on a massive scale to save industries and mitigate the economic fallout from COVID-19, they should be positioning their economies for a more sustainable future. Fortunately, far from remaining taboo, using state aid to change private-sector behavior has become common sense.Managed capitalism for public purpose versus neoliberalism as government favoring capital accumulation and preservation for unlimited growth and expecting "trickle down."
Project Syndicate
No More Free-Lunch Bailouts
Mariana Mazzucato | RM Phillips chair in the Economics of Innovation at SPRU in the University of Sussex
Bill Mitchell – The British government did not approach insolvency in March 2020
Insolvency is a corporate term which refers to a situation where a company is unable to pay contractual liabilities when they become due. From a balance sheet perspective, it means that the assets are valued below the liabilities. The term cannot be applied to a national government that does not issue liabilities in foreign currencies. Such a government can always meet its nominal liabilities irrespective of institutional arrangements it might have put in place to create contingent flows of numbers from one ‘box’ (account) to another ‘box’. Those arrangements do not override the intrinsic capacity of the legislator. So when the British press went crazy the other day reporting comments made by the Bank of England governor that the British government was on the cusp of insolvency, they did the British public a disservice. Donald Trump would have been finally justified in accusing the media of pushing out ‘fake’ news....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The British government did not approach insolvency in March 2020
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Why government deficits don't matter — Alan Kohler interviews Stephanie Kelton
Alan Kohler sits down with Professor Stephanie Kelton, author of the NYT Bestseller 'The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy' to take a deep dive into modern monetary theory and why inflation, not deficits themselves, are evidence of overspending, the idea of a job guarantee, plus much more.Eureka Report
Why government deficits don't matter
Alan Kohler interviews Stephanie Kelton
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
U.S. records highest single-day total of new coronavirus cases — Catherine Garcia
The Week
U.S. records highest single-day total of new coronavirus cases
Catherine Garcia
Zero Hedge — USA Plunges To 10th Place In World Competitiveness Rankings
For the second consecutive year, the US has been dethroned as the world's most competitive economy, thanks partially to President Trump's trade war. The US now ranks 10th (3rd in 2019), according to the Institute for Management Development's (IMD) new report on the ranking of most competitive world economies.Trade war.
Zero Hedge — "A Crisis Like No Other": IMF Sees Even Deeper Global Recession, Warns Markets Disconnected From Reality
In the latest revision to the IMF's economic outlook published this morning, the fund warns that the world is facing "a crisis like no other", and now expects global growth to shrink -4.9% in 2020, 1.9% below the April 2020 forecast of -3.0%.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, the IMF said, adding that the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4% down from 5.8%, a number which will also be revised lower, with China's expected 1.0% growth (down from 1.2%) the big wildcard....Zero Hedge
"A Crisis Like No Other": IMF Sees Even Deeper Global Recession, Warns Markets Disconnected From Reality
Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge — As 3 US Carriers Patrol Western Pacific, Chinese Analysts Warn US-China Stumbling Toward War
No less than two new separate reports in The South China Morning Post are warning of a coming US-China military conflict, saying the prospect is now higher than ever given that amid a rising number of naval incidents, including a recent near-collision incident, communication channels used for deconfliction have fallen silent.
The observation is based in large part on new studies by China's National Institute for South China Sea showing a steep drop-off in intergovernmental communications channels between the two sides....Zero Hedge
As 3 US Carriers Patrol Western Pacific, Chinese Analysts Warn US-China Stumbling Toward War
Tyler Durden
Also at Zero Hedge
Pentagon Produces List Of 20 Chinese Firms 'Backed By China's Military'
F-35 Stealth Jets "Elephant Walk" In Japan Amid Rising Sino-US Trade Tensions
See also
Politico
Trump national security adviser compares Xi Jinping to Josef Stalin
Daniel Lippman
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