Saturday, June 22, 2013

New Blog On Monetary Economics by Wynne Godley student


Inspiration
This blog is intended to allow me to record and share occasional ideas, principally in the realm of monetary economics.
My main inspiration comes from the work of Wynne Godley, my supervisor at Cambridge in the 1980s. I was privileged to spend many hours with him working on the development of prototype data-driven stock-flow models of the UK economy.  My own input was perhaps limited to inputting data, but in return I learned enormous amounts about theoretical and empirical modelling.  I had been interested in the long-run dynamics of models before, but Wynne's ideas were a revelation to me and have shaped the way I have thought about macroeconomic issues ever since.
For most of the time since then, I have worked in commercial fields, paying little attention to academic economics.  This has given me a much deeper understanding of the way things really work, but has meant that I have not been exposed to more recent developments in economic thinking.  Coming back to the subject now, I'm not sure that I've missed anything important.
Nick Edmonds
Reflections on Monetary Economics
(h/t Ramanan at The Case for Concerted Action)

Friday, June 21, 2013

Jeffery Brown — One Million Protesters Fill Brazil's Streets to Vent Anti-Government Grievances


Latin American Summer.

PBS NewsHour

One Million Protesters Fill Brazil's Streets to Vent Anti-Government Grievances
Jeffery Brown

Martin Wolf — How Austerity Has Failed

Austerity has failed. It turned a nascent recovery into stagnation. That imposes huge and unnecessary costs, not just in the short run, but also in the long term: the costs of investments unmade, of businesses not started, of skills atrophied, and of hopes destroyed.
Martin Wolf takes austerity and the austerians apart.
What is being done here in the UK and also in much of the eurozone is worse than a crime, it is a blunder.
 In today's environment, it's more insulting to call someone stupid than a criminal.

New York Review of Books
How Austerity Has Failed
Martin Wolf
(h/t Bill McBride at Calculated Risk)


Jillian Berman — Some Disabled Goodwill Workers Earn As Little As 22 Cents An Hour As Execs Earn Six Figures: Report



I don't think that this is necessarily a good criticism of Goodwill. Management improved vastly after the board decided to hire professional management and their operations reflect this. I have some knowledge of hiring the handicapped since a close friend was deeply committed to this and served for a time on the president's commission on hiring the handicapped. It's an area that is not focused on enough, and as a result a lot people are not only handicapped but socially disadvantaged because of it. Giving them something constructive to do brings great benefit to their lives. Many of these people are essentially unemployable, and it takes commitment and compassion to give them a helping hand. Goodwill should be commended for its efforts in this. Instead, there is a misdirected campaign on to discredit this effort.

The Huffington Post
Some Disabled Goodwill Workers Earn As Little As 22 Cents An Hour As Execs Earn Six Figures: Report
Jillian Berman

Mark Gongloff — Banker, CEO Pay Largely Responsible For Rising Inequality: Study

Josh Bivens and Lawrence Mishel, economists at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, argue in a study responding to Mankiw that most of the rise in income inequality over the past few decades is due to the soaring pay of CEOs and Wall Street bankers who are milking money from the markets rather than generating much in the way of economic production.
"A substantial part of the extraordinary rise of top 1 percent incomes is not a result of well-functioning markets allocating pay according to value generated, but instead resulted from shifting institutional arrangements leading to shifting of rents to those at the very top," Bivens and Mishel write.
The technical term for this is "rent-seeking." Mankiw, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, suggested in his recent paper, "Defending The One Percent" that there wasn't much of this going on, that the 1 percent are just richer than you, and getting even richer all the time, because they are better than you.
But he does admit that rent-seeking could be a problem: 
If the top 1 percent is earning an extra $1 in some way that reduces the incomes of the middle class and the poor by $2, then many people will see that as a social problem worth addressing. For example, suppose the rising income share of the top 1 percent were largely attributable to successful rent-seeking. Imagine that the government were to favor its political allies by granting them monopoly power over certain products, favorable regulations, or restrictions on trade. Such a policy would likely lead to both inequality and inefficiency. Economists of all stripes would deplore it. I certainly would.
Unfortunately, this is pretty much what has happened in the past 30 years, as Bivens and Mishel show, with numbers.
They point out that the top 1 percent of earners now take in about 74 percent of all the nation's capital gains, up from just 58.5 percent in 1979. That means they are getting the bulk of price gains in stocks, bonds and homes, to name just a few of the ways you can get capital gains. Increasingly, this kind of income is gathering at the very top and staying there. These price gains don't necessarily represent value added to the economy, just higher profit margins, Bivens and Mishel suggest.
The Huffington Post
Banker, CEO Pay Largely Responsible For Rising Inequality: Study
Mark Gongloff

Jan Diehm and Katy Hall — Success Metric

The Huffington Post

Third Metric Redefines Success (INFOGRAPHIC)
Jan Diehm and Katy Hall


AFP — Mainstream media accused of belittling Brazilian protests

Brazilians marching against corruption and the cost of the 2014 World Cup are also angry at the media, including the influential Globo network, accused of belittling their movement....
Widespread disillusionment with mainstream media has led many young protesters to turn to Facebook, Twitter, YouTube or Instagram for news. 
The Raw Story
Mainstream media accused of belittling Brazilian protests
Agence France-Presse

The protest in Brazil is turning into "a big deal," and it's not getting the coverage it deserves in the US media either.

David Edwards — McConnell: ‘Absurd’ to ban corporations from having same rights as ‘people’

McConnell: ‘Absurd’ to ban corporations from having same rights as ‘people’ (via Raw Story )
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Friday said that he opposed a constitutional amendment to ban corporations from having the same rights as people because the idea was “absurd.” Speaking to the conservative American Enterprise Institute, McConnell accused President Barack Obama’…

David Ruccio — Rent-seeking and the 1 percent



I’m intrigued by the increasing references to rent-seeking as a way of making sense of the groteque unequal distribution of income in the United States. What explains this trend?We now have Joseph Stiglitz, Josh Bivens and Lawrence Mishel, and Paul Krugman all referring to rents or rent-seeking in order to analyze how the 1 percent has managed to capture a larger and larger share of the income generated within the U.S. economy. It seems that, within “polite company” (or at least what passes for polite company within mainstream economics), it’s now permissible to invoke and describe the rent-seeking behavior of the economic elite (in a manner analogous to the way rent was originally used, to describe what landlords received for the use of their land, as the return obtained by virtue of ownership, not because of anything they actually did or produced).Here’s my sense: the obscene amounts of income going into the pockets of the top 1 percent and the fact that much of that income is associated with what are increasingly seen as economically useless activities (such as returns to stock ownership, serving as Chief Executive Officers of large corporations, and the financial sector) have put the final nail in the coffin of neoclassical marginal productivity theory. It’s simply become increasingly difficult to square the concentration of income among those at the very top (and the stagnation of incomes for pretty much everyone else) with the idea that everybody gets what they deserve, according to their marginal contributions to production.

OCCASIONAL LINKS & COMMENTARY on economics, culture and society
Rent-seeking and the 1 percent
David Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

Marginalism is the basis of neoclassical economics), whose public agenda was formalization of theory and focus on efficiency through marginal analysis. It can be argued that there was also a hidden agenda of deflecting attention away from economic rent, which is inherently extractive.

Rent extraction had been central to the classical economics of Smith and Ricardo that culminated in Marx, and marginalism was successful in bring that project to a close. Now some major voices in economics are beginning to rethink that position, as we have been harping on for some time.

Economic rent includes land rent as extraction from land ownership as in feudalism, monopoly rent from productive capital as in industrial capitalism, and financial rent from finance capital as in financial capitalism. Economic rent is a market imperfection that creates friction and leads to distortion, of which inequality is one prominent manifestation. Inequality also creates friction and leads to further distortion. Generally, the recommended antidotes for economics rent are taxation and regulation.

Professor Ruccio does not think that the rent explanation gets to the core of the issue, however, nor does he see the remedies as sufficient to correct the problem, which is structural. He sees the issue as being centered on extraction of surplus value owing to class power. So while rent is not "wrong," it is an insufficient analysis in that it doesn't take the whole into account. Unless the issue of power is addressed, the problem cannot be solved since the foundation remains untouched.



Michael Graham Richard — Auto dealers try to sneak in a bill that would put "Tesla out of business in New York"

From the beginning, Tesla’s goal has been to catalyze the market for electric vehicles and selling through intermediaries at this stage of the company will not work.For Auto Dealer Associations to claim that restricting competition is in the best interests of the public is wrong and defies obvious common sense. If we are kept out of New York, it forestalls progress and defeats innovation.
Treehuggers
Auto dealers try to sneak in a bill that would put "Tesla out of business in New York"
Michael Graham Richard | Transportation / Cars

The funny thing is that one of the chief markets for Tesla, considering the price, is the financial sector centered in Manhattan, Tesla vehicles being Veblen goods at this point instead of chiefly green goods. Wall Streeters won't just cross the river to New Jersey to buy one? This is incredibly dumb.

Justin Fox — The Business-Friendly Legislature Known as SCOTUS

In his 1978 Cornell Law Review article "The Supreme Court as a Legislature," law professor Geoffrey C. Hazard Jr. points out that the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia in 1787 seriously considered creating a "Council of Revision" to review and amend the work of Congress — an explicitly legislative role that to a certain extent the Supreme Court inherited. In Federalist Paper No. 78, Alexander Hamilton acknowledges that, while it is the job of the judicial branch to dispassionately ascertain the meaning of the Constitution, judges might "be disposed to exercise WILL instead of JUDGMENT." Appointing them to lifetime terms, he continues, might at least contribute to an "independent spirit" keeping their decisions from being too obviously political. And the landmark 1803 Marbury v. Madison decision, in which the Supreme Court first asserted its authority to void the actions of the executive branch and the decisions of the legislative branch, has long been cited as an example of Realpolitik as much as jurisprudence.
Harvard Business Review | HBR Blog Network
Justin Fox | editorial director of the Harvard Business Review Group

The command system at the top of the American economy — the "politically independent" Fed and SCOTUS, neither of which are elected or accountable to the people.

Merijn Knibbe on land rent and financial rent.

Paul Krugman is tinkering with a model which explains monopoly rents on products with ‘zero’ or at least very low production costs (pharmaceutical products, computer programs like Excel). But he does not yet mention that (A) electronic fiat money is the ultimate zero production costs product while (B) the seigniorage interest profits made by the banks which produce it are to quite some extent based upon ‘land’related loans. Think of a loan for house purchase, financed by freshly produced money and a 4% interest rate. This income often is, to the extent that it’s used to buy already existing land with a high location value or leads to an inflationary increase of house prices, an often overlooked rent income.
Real-World Economics Review Blog
Links and fests (4 pics)
Merijn Knibbe


Dean Baker — The Bigger Problem With Mankiw's Plan to Give Everything to the One Percent


No, Professor Mankiw, it wasn't "the market."

CEPR
The Bigger Problem With Mankiw's Plan to Give Everything to the One Percent
Dean Baker | Co-Director

This article just skims the surface of the interaction of different part of the economy in creating wealth, non-financial and financial. In a modern economy, government co-ordinate R&D for dual military and domestic use of technological innovation, and private industry is the major beneficiary of wealth thereby created without bearing any of the cost or being required to contribute from profits beyond ordinary taxation. The Internet began as a military project, for instance, as did the interstate highway system that replaced rail as the principle form of transportation, with enormous implications for industry and commerce.

Examples like this abound. The hand of government is is everything, if only based on the public education that trains the workforce as the foundation of economic society. The notion that entrepreneurs are entirely responsible for their success and should therefore be rewarded as such in nonsense.

Warren Mosler — Friday update- deficits matter, a lot!



Macro outlook. Fiscal drag increasing. No obvious offset from other sectors. Potential contraction looming.

The Center of the Universe
Friday update- deficits matter, a lot!Warren Mosler

Bill Mitchell – Case Study – British IMF loan 1976 – Part 3

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

 
Previous parts:
▪ Case Study – British IMF loan 1976 – Part 1
▪ Case Study – British IMF loan 1976 – Part 2
Case Study – The British IMF loan in 1976
[CONTINUING - NOTE I AM PIECING THIS TOGETHER FROM A RANGE OF PRIMARY HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS AND IT IS VERY TIME CONSUMING. THE TASK IS TO DISTILL THE MASSIVE DETAIL AVAILABLE IN THE VARIOUS OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS TO PROVIDE AN ADEQUATE BACKGROUND TO WHAT HAPPENED IN THE MID 1970s. WITHOUT THAT BACKGROUND ERRONEOUS CONCLUSIONS ARE EASY TO MAKE]
Post War Period to the 1976 crisis
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Case Study – British IMF loan 1976 – Part 3
Bill Mitchell


How To Avoid The Cyclical Trap Of Arbitrarily Constraining Real Growth In Order To Make Nominal Numbers Look "Good"

Commentary by Roger Erickson

This links fiat currency operations to multiple disciplines, so it's posted at OOF.



Mark Thoma — Paul Krugman: Profits Without Production


It's the rent, stupid. Has Paul Krugman been reading Michael Hudson, or could any fool figure this out? What's taken so long?

Congrats to Professor Krugman for mentioning the unmentionable from the bully pulpit.

Economist's View
Paul Krugman: Profits Without Production
Mark Thoma


Thursday, June 20, 2013

Edited video of Mosler versus Murphy now available



MMT vs. Austrian School Debate

ModernMoneyNetwork

Kudos Rebecca Rojer

Andrew Gavin Marshall — Global Power Project: Identifying the Institutions of Control


The was posted yesterday at AlterNet and reposted today at Truthout.

The Global Power Project, an investigative series produced by Occupy.com, aims to identify and connect the worldwide institutions and individuals who comprise today's global power oligarchy. In Part 1, which appeared last week, I provided an overview examining who and what constitute the global ruling elite – often referred to as the Transnational Capitalist Class (TCC). In this second part, I will attempt to identify some of the key, dominant institutions that have facilitated and have in turn been supported by the development of this oligarchic class. This is not a study of wealth, but a study of power.
Truthout
Global Power Project: Identifying the Institutions of Control
Andrew Gavin Marshall, Occupy.com | News Analysis

Jeremy Smith — The key policy issue for China's leadership - urbanization


Chin'a leaders explain their plan for development.

Huge task. Test of central planning.

Prime
The key policy issue for China's leadership - urbanization
Jeremy Smith

See also Pepe Escobar, The Chimerica Dream: Two Nations, Two Dreams, One Pacific

Josh Bivens and Lawrence Mishel — Financial Professionals as Evidence of Rents in Top 1 Percent Incomes

The debate over the extent and causes of rising inequality of American incomes and wages has now raged for at least two decades. In this paper, we will make four arguments. First, the increase in the incomes and wages of the top 1 percent over in the last three decades should largely be interpreted as driven by the creation and/or redistribution of economic rents, and not simply as the outcome of well-functioning competitive markets rewarding skills or productivity based on marginal differences. This rise in rents accruing to the top 1 percent could be the result of increased opportunities for rent-shifting, increased incentives for rent-shifting, or a combination of both. Second, this rise in incomes at the very top has been the primary impediment to living standards growth for low and moderate-income households approaching the growth rate of economy-wide productivity. Third, because this rise in top incomes is largely driven by rents, there is the potential for checking (or even reversing) this rise through policy measures with little to no adverse impact on overall economic growth. Lastly, this analysis suggests two complementary approaches for policymakers wishing to reverse the rise in the top 1 percent’s share of income: dismantling the institutional sources of their increased ability to channel rents their way and/or reducing the return to this rent-seeking by significantly increasing marginal rates of taxation on high incomes.
Economic Policy Institute ReportThe Pay of Corporate Executives and Financial Professionals as Evidence of Rents in Top 1 Percent Incomes
Josh Bivens, Research and Policy Director, and Lawrence Mishel, President, Economic Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.

The rent is too damn high!

Lars P. Syll — Neoclassical economics – emperor without clothes

Conclusion – don’t believe a single thing of what these microfounders tell you until they have told you how they havecoped with – not evaded –Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu!
Of course, most neoclassical macroeconomists know that to use a representative agent is a flagrantly illegitimate method of ignoring real aggregation issues. They keep on with their business, nevertheless, just because it significantly simplifies what they are doing. It reminds – not so little – of the drunkard who has lost his keys in some dark place and deliberately chooses to look for them under a neighbouring street light just because it is easier to see there!
Neoclassical economics – emperor without clothes
Lars P. Syll | Professor of Social Studies and Associate Professor of Economics, Malmo University

Matias Vernengo — The Latin American left and its discontents


Summary of what's happening in Latin America. Progress on balance, if you are coming from the left of spectrum.

Naked Keynesianism

The Latin American left and its discontents
Matias Vernengo | Professor of Economics, University of Utah



Dirk Ehtns — China Credit Crunch – it’s the central bank, stupid!

The New York Times reports on the Chinese financial market mentioning a "credit crunch." However, it seems that the credit crunch is the equivalent of rising interest rates and nothing out of the ordinary....
econoblog101
China Credit Crunch – it’s the central bank, stupid!
Dirk Ehtns | Berlin School of Economics and Law

PBOC forcing lenders into line with its policy, not the market rate spiking as the gloom and doomers think.

A Fullwiler paper gets a mention, too.




David Ruccio — Who framed inequality?


More on economics and power.


OCCASIONAL LINKS & COMMENTARY on economics, culture and society

Who framed inequality?
David Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

In the neoliberal "market state," who has market power and why?


Lord Keynes — Gardiner Means on Administered Prices

Gardiner’s conclusions are worth quoting:
“... the actual behavior of administration-dominated prices … tends to differ so sharply from the behaviour to be expected from classical theory as to challenge the basic conclusions of that theory. However well the theory may apply to market-dominated prices, it would not seem to apply to the bulk of the administration-dominated prices in the sample or to that part of the industrial world which they typify. Until economic theory can explain and take into account the implications of this nonclassical behavior of administered prices, it provides a poor basis for public policy. The challenge which administered prices make to classical economics is as fundamental as that made by the quantum to classical physics.” (Means 1972: 304).
Administered price behaviour in real world economies really does lead to revolutionary conclusions for economic theory: so much of neoclassical economics and Austrian economic theory simply collapses and must be abandoned once one understands its implications.

Disequilibrium prices are deliberately created and maintained by fixprice enterprises in a vast swathe of the economy, simply because they prefer it that way. Such businesses are not generally in the habit of using flexible prices as their normal method of clearing supply, or equating demand with supply.
Social Democracy For The 21St Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective
Gardiner Means on Administered Prices
Lord Keynes

The Current Moment — The Future of Work

Although every so often there are breathless declarations of the end of work, the collapse of work, and that technology is leading to a world without work, the historical trend is the opposite. Ever since the 1970s, an increasing share of the population has been working. For instance, the graph below shows the employment to population ratio in the United States. Notably, even after the dramatic post-2008 decline, a higher percentage of Americans still work in the formal labor market than anytime before the mid 1970s....
Three recent changes to the political economy suggest not only increased participation in, but greater dependence on, wage-labor, especially by those on the bottom end of the labor market. These are a) stagnation or reduction of welfare benefits, b) stagnation or decline of wealth and c) stagnant wages and precarious employment. Welfare and wealth are alternatives to wages as sources of consumption; lower wages and precarious employment increases insecurity of and need for employment....
In all, then, we can say that alternatives to employment have gotten worse or disappeared for the majority of people in the US and Europe, while the available jobs pay, on average, less than they used to and offer less security. There is every reason to think that the most likely near future of work will give us strong reasons to think about a different way of organizing work – about a better, if less likely, future. 
The Current Moment
The Future of Work

Bill Mitchell – It is hard to defend the 1 per cent by claiming their contribution added value


Mitchell responds to Mankiw's apologetic for the "job creators" — after a short comment on Japan.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
It is hard to defend the 1 per cent by claiming their contribution added value
Bill Mitchell

See also Lars Syll, Suggestion for Mankiw’s reading list

Mankiw "defends" himself against an Internet firestorm.

Gred Mankiw's Blog
In Defense of Me
Gregory K. Mankiw | Professor of Economics and Chairman of the Economics Department at Harvard University
(h/t Ramanan)

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

David Edwards — Steve King: Secret income is ‘part of freedom’

Steve King: Secret income is ‘part of freedom’ (via Raw Story )
Rep. Steve King (R-IA) on Wednesday told a tea party rally that the Internal Revenue Service should be abolished because keeping income secret from the federal government was “part of freedom.” “You know, the IRS audited me one too many years in a row,” King explained at a Tea Party Patriots…

Eric Dolan — Warren on Trans-Pacific Partnership: If people knew what was going on, they would stop it

Warren on Trans-Pacific Partnership: If people knew what was going on, they would stop it (via Raw Story )
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Wednesday voiced her opposition to President Barack Obama’s top international trade nominee because of a secretive free trade agreement. “I am deeply concerned about the transparency record of the U.S. Trade Representative and with one ongoing trade agreement…