An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Pages
▼
Pages
▼
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Bill Gross smoked again??
Following his now-infamous bet on the Treasury market last year, where he went heavily short, Gross reversed his view in December and loaded up. Now bonds are tanking.
Gold looks like it is down another 3% today, looks like a broad liquidation as bonds are down and gold?
As far as bonds, the Fed telegraphed the end of QE2 at the end of June '11 IIRC and that was a good entry point... I'll try to get some data on the Fed's 'twit' er.. 'twist' and find out if they have telegraphed when this 'twist' is going to be over....
Resp,
PS looks like a good policy to not let folks refer to you as "Bond King" or perhaps "King" of anything! ;)
So looks like some overall pressure from 'twist' thru June else equal... then perhaps a pretty good long entry if no QE3 to immediately follow, else equal.
Could you call Bill Gross a reverse indicator? Also, have you been watching the CNBC gold promoters? They even had gold bars on the air about all day the other day. Can't you always tell a top in something when everybody is pushing it?
He thinks the Fed's 'twist' is bullish...
ReplyDeleteResp,
Wait until he covers and goes short again--which I'm sure he will--and then go long. It should be any day now.
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteGold looks like it is down another 3% today, looks like a broad liquidation as bonds are down and gold?
As far as bonds, the Fed telegraphed the end of QE2 at the end of June '11 IIRC and that was a good entry point... I'll try to get some data on the Fed's 'twit' er.. 'twist' and find out if they have telegraphed when this 'twist' is going to be over....
Resp,
PS looks like a good policy to not let folks refer to you as "Bond King" or perhaps "King" of anything! ;)
Poor Gross...
'twist' started in October '11 and is due to end in June '12:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news/economy/federal_reserve_operation_twist/index.htm
Bonds topped out right around October 1st (using TLT as proxy):
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TLT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=tlt;range=6m;indicator=wpr;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=off;source=undefined
So looks like some overall pressure from 'twist' thru June else equal... then perhaps a pretty good long entry if no QE3 to immediately follow, else equal.
Resp,
Gold's gonna hurt a lot of people.
ReplyDeleteEspecially after the shills get through distributing it to the suckers.
ReplyDeleteIf they haven't already.
Could you call Bill Gross a reverse indicator?
ReplyDeleteAlso, have you been watching the CNBC gold promoters? They even had gold bars on the air about all day the other day. Can't you always tell a top in something when everybody is pushing it?
I think the gold sellers are the only advertisers Limbaugh has left! ;)
ReplyDelete