This is from Strategic Cultures which my Malwarebytes says is unsafe. I think it's political and the site is okay, but I won't give a link, just this extract. I go to the site using my phone. Stephen Lendman fears that the election will be rigged whatever the polls say. Mathew Jamison is a senior parliamentary at the House of Commons.
Yet their opinion poll lead rather than holding up or growing ahead of Election Day set for Thursday June 8th is actually declining as the campaign wears on. With so much of the mainstream press in Britain backing Theresa May's Tory Party and the overwhelmingly hostile campaign of nearly all the newspapers and members of his own Parliamentary Party, Mr. Corbyn, had been pronounced by many in the London media and indeed within his party in the House of Commons as a dead man walking with no hope of slashing the Tory lead let alone consistently week on week bring it down by 3-4%. Now the Tories once mighty lead has fallen by nearly 10 % in the space of three weeks or so. At this rate come election day it may even be tied between Labour and the Conservatives or a few points separating them.
How has this happened. Well, it would appear that while most of Mr. Corbyn's Parliamentary Party were plotting his downfall with various journalists he and the Labour Leadership have been developing rich policy work across a range of public policy areas in need of drastic reform. Since the formal launch of the campaign all we have had from Theresa May and her Conservatives is one vacuous slogan: «Strong and Stable leadership.» Nothing on the NHS and the funding crisis it and schools in Britain are facing. Nothing on plans to update and improve Britain's appalling infrastructure; nothing to help bring down the cost of living holding shark landlords and extortionate rents to account. Nothing on the job creation of the future. Basically on all the important domestic policies which affect people's lives, Theresa May and the Conservative Party have said and presented nothing.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party have been rolling out what appear to be well thought out; costed and popular policies with key constituencies across the UK. Many people have started to say that Jeremy Corbyn's message on the home front or his foreign policy views make a great deal of sense and he is not the Stalinist madman that the likes of the Daily Mail and the Sun have made him out to be while Mrs. May's vacuous, meaningless slogan «strong and stable leadership» is starting to wear very thin with little policy meat on the bones to back it up and what there is such as the «dementia tax» are thoroughly nasty, horrible policies. Mrs. May; her inadequate team and the party she leads may find come polling day they squandered one of the largest opinion poll leads in the shortest space of time imaginable.
"et alone consistently week on week bring it down by 3-4%."
ReplyDeletePropaganda again. The Tory percentage is holding pretty steady.
What is actually happening is that the minor parties are haemorrhaging support to Labour. The voters are telling the minor parties that they want a 'progressive alliance'. That progressive alliance being the Labour party.
But I'll lay odds that the Greens and the Lib Dems will soldier on as independent entities - despite what the electorate is clearly telling them - eternally splitting the left and handing victory to the Tories.
It was seductive to believe in it, I guess Jamison felt the same.
DeleteAre UK polling numbers more reliable than US figures?
ReplyDeleteBut I'll lay odds that the Greens and the Lib Dems will soldier on as independent entities - despite what the electorate is clearly telling them - eternally splitting the left and handing victory to the Tories.
ReplyDeleteSame happened here in Spain, but the end result was the main Socialist party losing ground to the new parties on the left. In process there was an internal struggle in the party and now the militancy has voted in the one that is pro-alliance (which the status quo of the party was trying to displace, like with Corbyn in the UK).
The probable result in the near future is that there will be a coalition between leftist forces to fight of the conservative party. I'm not completely sure of the details of the UK parliamentary system but I guess a similar thing could end up happening eventually.
In any case in seems like in most Europe we will see gridlock and stagnation in the political system due to fragmentation in UK. I guess what will happen when the next crisis hits, the conservative or 'new centrists' (like in France) parties which have a weak presence in power will be crushed by populist surge (left and right).
Trump turns out to be as useless as Obama, Border Adjustment Tax trashed by the Republican Libertarian Freedom Caucus and now government balancing its budget like a household plus trickle down cut-the-rich-folk's tax economics. Of course, he can get away with it because the elecorate lack economic and monetary literacy. I wonder how many more centuries this will last. Maybe Wall's Street's private sector debt "rent traps" as Michael Hudson calls them will bring about a collapse like the Roman Empire!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/23/trump-budget-medicaid-food-stamps-obamacare
"That is actually happening is that the minor parties are haemorrhaging support to Labour"
ReplyDeleteNot really what is happening Neil, if that was the case we should be on zero but we are up today...ok only 4% but better than we were in 15. Looks to me like the UKIP vote is imploding and going back to where they used to voted for, Libdems are going nowhere so neutral (hardly left though), the rest of the left parties were so few in number so insignificant. My vote locally will go down due to my opposition on a local issue but will be neutral as I chair 2 constituencies and the other will go up because of the same Issue but in Neoliberal Kent it's a 1 party state anyway.
I am quite surprised in that I thought this wouldn't be about policy, turns out it is.
Btw the hand went out for progressive alliances and it is happening, I had a deal with who I expected would be the Lab candidate...didn't happen as they surprisingly didn't pick him so had to stand. It is happening in close constituencies mostly, you wouldn't notice up there but elsewhere we are talking. For example in Brighton pavilion, Caroline's seat in 15 Lab went after it and spent loads and failed, they are 'standing' but have put up a 21 year old politics student and not funding, it is no 'alliance' but is basically putting up a paper candidate because their rules said they stand everywhere, that's fine then don't campaign...they arent. We have stood down in Brighton Kemptown in return because we can because we don't have that rule. What national parties are saying and what is going on locally is a different matter.
ReplyDelete"if that was the case we should be on zero but we are up today...ok only 4% but better than we were in 15. "
ReplyDeleteDepends which poll you read. Last Guardian/ICM had greens down to 2%. Most don't bother mentioning them. On the poll of polls the Greens just fall in the 'other' category. UKIP will be back there too by the end of this.
Be careful of the false consensus effect.
Some fair points, I was just taking 1 poll but around 3% is usually what we poll so nothing unusual happening with us (locals are of course different but we had a pretty good result in the recent county elections...was supposed to be the LibDems who would but they disappointed in those).
ReplyDeleteTwo polls YouGov & TNS today both have the Tories dropping 5 points. I think it's the Maybot, they tried to make it about her and have succeeded but unfortunately them for them they didn't realise how weak she is, look at the 'dementia tax' fiasco.