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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The Cheapest Way For Trump To Save U.S. Oil — Lourcey Sams


Protectionism. This would be a kiss of death for free trade, one of the three pillars of economic liberalism, the other two being free markets and free capital flows.

How Eight Conglomerates Dominate Japanese Industry — Matt Jancer

“Chaebols”, large business groups controlled by founder families, are usually considered a crucial ingredient of South Korea’s economic miracle. But after a process of consolidation, big chaebol firms such as Hyundai established exclusive supply chains with suppliers of parts and components and began to engage in price squeezing and intellectual property extortion in bargaining with its suppliers....

ProMarket — The blog of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
The Darkest Side of Monopsony: The South Korean Case
Sangin Park

See also

Each keiretsu can have as many as 30 sub-companies—from breweries to camera and auto makers.…

Smithsonian Magazine
How Eight Conglomerates Dominate Japanese Industry
Matt Jancer

Oil Price Rises After Trump Phones Putin — Gary Littlejohn


Mostly analysis instead of oil politics.

The Vineyard of the Saker
Oil Price Rises After Trump Phones Putin
Gary Littlejohn for The Saker blog

Sputnik — China's GDP Growth to Decline to 2.3% in Baseline Scenario in 2020 - World Bank


Forget about that crash the media was forecasting.

Sputnik
China's GDP Growth to Decline to 2.3% in Baseline Scenario in 2020 - World Bank

also

Bounceback?
  • China on Tuesday said the official Purchasing Manager’s Index for March was 52.0, beating expectations for an economy hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
  • Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the official PMI to come in at 45 for the month of March, from a record low of 35.7 a month earlier.
CNBC
China says manufacturing activity expanded in March, defying expectations of a contraction
Huileng Tan

RT — Beijing won't just 'watch Huawei be slaughtered on the chopping board', company chief warns US


China ready to fire back in the trade war?
"The Chinese government will not just stand by and watch Huawei be slaughtered on the chopping board," Chairman Eric Xu told reporters at the launch of Huawei's annual report.
"Why wouldn't the Chinese government ban the use of 5G chips or 5G chip-powered base stations, smartphones and other smart devices provided by American companies, for cybersecurity reasons?"
Hmm. The chairman of Huawei may not speak for the Chinese government, but it is unlikely he would put this out without checking.

HOW COVID-19 KILLS--I'm a Surgeon--And Why We Can't Save You

It ain't pretty. I think he is trying to drive out complacency.

I've been debating with some climate change deniers for 3 weeks, but they are also Covid-19 deniers too. They say it's nothing.


The Economic Outlook — Bill McBride


Bill McBride is an analyst worth listening to on the economy even though he specializes in real estate. He doesn't have an axe to grind. He doesn't see a fast snapback.

Best line:
(Note: This was NOT a "stimulus" package, this was disaster relief).
Calculated Risk
The Economic Outlook
Bill McBride

What the Shift to Virtual Learning Could Mean for the Future of Higher Ed — Vijay Govindarajan and Anup Srivastava


Difficult to estimate now how this pandemic will change education other than to say some effects are highly likely. The digital revolution is now here of necessity and necessity is the mother of invention. Not only higher education is being effected but also primary and secondary. In addition, many are working at home for the first time. The obvious benefit is reduced transaction costs and less need for resources directed to physical plant, transportation, etc. So some change is inevitable and this can be looked at as a test case.

Harvard Business Review
What the Shift to Virtual Learning Could Mean for the Future of Higher EdVijay Govindarajan and
Anup SrivastavaVijay Govindarajan, Coxe Distinguished Professor of Management at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, and Anup Srivastava. Canada Research Chair in Accounting, Decision Making, and Capital Markets and Associate Professor at Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary

Firing of Whistleblowing Emergency Room Doctor Ming Lin By Blackstone-Owned TeamHealth Demonstrates Outsized Role of Private Equity in Hospital Staffing — Yves Smith

However, the furor over the mistreatment of Dr. Lin did largely manage to skip over the question of how TeamHealth [owned by Blackstone] is even legally in the position to effectively provide hospital services when they are not licensed to do so. Several groups protested Dr. Lin’s ouster and one, the American Academy of Emergency Medicine, focused squarely on this issue.
Similar to insurance companies approving and denying care prescribed by physicians. Screwing with provision is one thing but practicing medicine without a license is another.

WTF?

Naked Capitalism
Firing of Whistleblowing Emergency Room Doctor Ming Lin By Blackstone-Owned TeamHealth Demonstrates Outsized Role of Private Equity in Hospital Staffing
Yves Smith

Bill Mitchell — The government should pay the workers 100 per cent, not rely on wage subsidies

The buzz-word at the moment in Australian government and policy circles is ‘hibernation’ – the government is hoping, that the economy can behave like a crocodile and find some ‘river bank’ and have a ‘good sleep’ until the pandemic is over, at which time, it will burst forth into a new growth phase and unless the virus mutates into something worse in the meantime then all will be well. Their policy interventions to date – while they have been like dragging a chain as their conservative instincts are being dragged very quickly into the demands and realities of real world macroeconomics, which is different to the nonsense that is taught by mainstream economists in our now depleted universities – have been crafted to ensure nothing important changes in a structural sense in our socio-economic lives. The problem is that the existing system, which they are hoping to put into hibernation for a while, is putrid to the core and needs major changes if we are to achieve a socio-ecological transformation. Remember the failings of neoliberalism? Remember climate change? Remember the poles melting? Remember the engineered cuts to workers who rely on penalty rates at weekends to maintain a sense of material prosperity? Remember the 13.7 per cent labour underutilisation rate? Remember the failed public transport and energy sectors, privatised and lacking in investment? Remember the financial markets that were exposed by the recent Royal Commission as corrupt, inefficient and downright dangerous to the our material and psychological prosperity? We don’t need a hibernation. We need the Government to take advantage of the dislocation that is currently occurring to make some basic changes. Like wiping out the gig economy. Like … read on. At present, the stimulus interventions, which are mostly about saving capitalism from itself. We should be demanding much more....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Noam Chomsky: Coronavirus - What is at stake?

I thought this interview with Chomsky really hit the button. It's pretty chilling.


The coronavirus crisis is revealing that the powers that be of the European Union have learned nothing from the Eurocrisis. 

They are currently betraying the interests of the majority of Europeans in the same way that they have done so in 2010 -- by failing to mobilize existing money and public financial instruments in the interests of the many. With their current decisions, they are jeopardizing public health, public goods and the interests of Europeans. 




Monday, March 30, 2020

Moon of Alabama — Trump, Putin Will Discuss The End Of U.S. Shale Oil

Trump would have to make a strategic offer that Russia could not resist to get some cooperation on oil prices.But what strategic offer could Trump make that would move Putin to agree to some new deal?...
And what reason has Russia to believe that Trump or his successor would stick to any deal? As the U.S. is non-agreement-capable it has none.
The outcome of the phone call will therefore likely be nothing....
Moon of Alabama
Trump, Putin Will Discuss The End Of U.S. Shale Oil

See also

Reminiscence of the Future

The US is over a barrel.

Andrei Martyanov
Trump Wants To Talk.

Radical imagination and the intellectual edifice — Jim Vrettos interviews Michael Hudson



Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
Radical imagination and the intellectual edifice
Jim Vrettos interviews Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

U.S. Oil Production In Process Of ... Peaking Brian Romanchuk

My base case view matches what is priced into the markets: the crude oil market is glutted and demand is falling off a cliff. Storage constraints are in sight, and I am not seeing an immediate catalyst for a demand rebound. The nearly inevitable outcome is that drilling drops dead, and capacity is shuttered. At some point, one will be able to take the chart of U.S. crude liquid products (conventional oil plus the products of fracking), stick a red line through the maximum value, and all other values on the chart will below that maximum. In common parlance, this behaviour is known as a "peak." As a long-suffering card-carrying Peak Oil believer, I will be flooding the internet with "I told ya so!" missives.
I accept that one can generate some scenarios where a peak does not occur near this point. Meanwhile, I am not saying that this will be a maximum for all time; this is a "local maximum." However, I am not incredibly optimistic that the U.S. will be able to take another run at the 20 million barrels per day level any time soon....
US oil production depends on the cartel to maintain prices above market price owing to the high production cost of US oil relative to other major producers. The US as swing producer was never going to happen.

The practical alternative is for the US to nationalize oil have the government eat the difference between market price and production cost. While this would be anti-capitalistic and seemingly would be rejected out of hand, nationalization would be justifiable based on national self-sufficiency in vital resources.

Bond Economics
U.S. Oil Production In Process Of ... Peaking
Brian Romanchuk

What If We Nationalized Payroll? Pavlina Tcherneva

As the coronavirus pandemic rages on, the US Congress appropriated a whopping $2 trillion budget to tackle it (about 10% of GDP). The focus was on expanded unemployment benefits and cash assistance to families, as well as grants and loans to small firms and large corporations in hopes that they will halt the torrent of layoffs.
Across the ocean, Denmark took a different approach. The Danish government announced that it would cover 75–90% of certain worker salaries for the next 3 months. However remote the possibility here in the US, it still inspires the question: Could we have followed suit? How shall we think about such a policy?...
Multiplier Effect
What If We Nationalized Payroll?
Pavlina Tcherneva | Assistant Professor of Economics at Bard College, Research Scholar at The Levy Economics Institute, and Senior Research Associate at the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability

See also

Global Inequality
Four types of labor and the epidemic
Branko Milanovic | Visiting Presidential Professor at City University of New York Graduate Center and senior scholar at the Stone Center on Socio-economic Inequality, senior scholar at the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), and formerly lead economist in the World Bank's research department and senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Capitalism’s Triple Crisis — Mariana Mazzucato

After the 2008 financial crisis, we learned the hard way what happens when governments flood the economy with unconditional liquidity, rather than laying the foundation for a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Now that an even more severe crisis is underway, we must not repeat the same mistake....
Project Syndicate
Capitalism’s Triple Crisis
Mariana Mazzucato | RM Phillips chair in the Economics of Innovation at SPRU in the University of Sussex

Tax Justice and Modern Monetary Theory – A Guide — Yves Smith


Yves Smith:
I think Modern Monetary Theory proponents have made acceptance of their ideas a bit more difficult by not drawing a bright line between their theory, which is a description of how government spending works in a fiat currency system, versus what they believe are resulting sound policy approaches, such as setting the price of labor (a Job Guarantee) rather than the price of money.
Some folks seem slow on the uptake. How loud to MMT economists need to shout? (shakes head)

Why is the MMT position that MMT economists shares and have written about exhaustively so difficult to grok?

I suspect it is because MMT uses a different lens for looking at macroeconomics and political economy, while others continue to look through their own accustomed lenses.

Hello, MMT is not essentially about tax justice. That is a different subject that informs political economy and it is chiefly a political matter, as implied by the term, "justice." "Justice" is a legal term, not an economic one.

Political economy intersects with philosophy, sociology, evolutionary theory, anthropology, sociology, political theory, law and justice, etc. The MMT economists are doing macroeconomics, which is their field of expertise. Because MMT is a type of institutional economics that also builds on Post Keynesianism and other influences, it is difficult for other economists to categorize so they try to force it into a box that doesn't fit.

When MMT economists venture into policy, they do so personally. Macroeconomic is policy-neutral other than in its assumptions. But the commonly held assumption among macroeconomists is that the chief aim of macroeconomics is explaining the relationship of growth, employment and price. MMT offers a unique approach to this using a different lens to look at the data and issues and to construct models of different types of systems.

Naked Capitalism
Tax Justice and Modern Monetary Theory – A Guide
Yves Smith
Crosspost of a post by Richard Murphy

Bill Mitchell – My podcast with Alan Kohler

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining more attention in Australia in recent weeks. I have been shifting my face-to-face speaking commitments slowly to on-line presentations. I will be announcing more systematic MMTed classes beginning via the Internet soon. And I will do some Live Youtube presentations as well. Last week, the well-known financial market journalist Alan Kohler used his weekly column in The Australian newspaper to discuss MMT – It’s Modern Monetary Theory time as the state steps in (March 23, 2020 – subscription required). Apart from his private corporate work in the financial markets (he writes a regular briefing and does an inflight business report for Qantas), Alan presents the finance report on the national broadcaster ABC nightly news program. He is also a regular columnist in the business pages. So he has high profile. I discussed my concerns with Alan’s representation of MMT in this blog post – It’s Modern Monetary Theory time! No, it always has been! (March 23, 2020). We made contact soon after that – I E-mailed him to tell him I had written a response to his column and he rang me and we arranged to talk further. On Wednesday last week (March 25, 2020), we spoke as part of Alan’s regular podcast – published at Eureka Report (which is a subscription business service). The 48-odd minute is also published here with some additional commentary.  

Alan Kohler is an MMT critic. Here is the essence of his objection.
In his article, Alan wrote that we do not want the RBA purchasing Treasury debt directly.
Why?:
we don’t want to do that ­because we don’t trust politicians. They need to be handcuffed by the idea that all spending must be funded by taxes or debt. Otherwise where would we be? In the land of the Magic Pudding, that’s where.But that is a fabrication ­designed to prevent politicians using unlimited cash to buy votes and entrench themselves in power.The interesting question now is whether that fabrication will survive the virus or become one of its casualties.
Bill demolishes this objection, which is one of the standard ones, along with "hyperinflation," "bond vigilantes," Weimar, "Zimbabwe" and "Venezuela."

Elites prefer austerity because they view it as deflationary and deflation favors savers. Conversely, they view social welfare spending and public investment as inflationary unless it benefits them primarily. While Bill primarily attacks this as ideological bias, it is also reflective of self-interest and class-interest by the wealthy and power. There is a reason behind the veil of ideology, neoliberalism, and economic liberalism in general. The combination of self-interest and class-interest.

As a result there is a contradiction between political liberalism expressed as government of the people, for the people and by the people, the economic correlate of which is some form of socialism, and economic liberalism, which is based on capitalism and "the sanctity of private property" as determined by courts whose judges are selected from and by the elite class.

Bill hints at this but does not explore it in this post.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
My podcast with Alan Kohler
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Some Trump supporters ‘delight’ in defying pandemic protocols to stick it to liberals: report



“The white-haired Republicans seemed to delight in breaking the new rules,” Coppins writes. “They made a show of shaking hands, and complained loudly about the ‘stupid hoax’ being propagated by virus alarmists. When their tee times were up, they piled defiantly into golf carts, shoulder to shoulder, and sped off toward the first hole.”


Raw Story

Some Trump supporters ‘delight’ in defying pandemic protocols to stick it to liberals: report

Fed lowers RRR to 0%


What a bunch of duplicitous and dishonest pieces of garbage these people are...

How many months have we been told that they had to increase the Reserve Assets at the Depositories with all the "repo!" BS ever since September...  covering up their incompetence where they had a requirement of 10% of Deposits and Deposits were $13T so they reduced THEIR OWN RESERVE balances below $1.3T and created a Reserve deficiency...

So they go for months trying to create this big smokescreen about 'Reserves!" and adding all these nonrisk assets to Depositories... like it was a real technical issue or something...

Now in the middle of "virus!" armageddeon they just come out one day and say "well... now the requirement is ZERO!"..

Why didnt you just do this in September then assholes?????

These are some of the most incompetent and dishonest people on planet earth... if our medical and healthcare people were like this we would soon all be dead...

These people should all be shit canned like yesterday....





Toilet paper is a giant waste of resources

Americans consume the most toilet paper in the world but it's a very wasteful product to manufacture, according to the numbers.



  • Toilet paper consumption is unsustainable and requires a tremendous amount of resources to produce.
  • Americans use the most toilet paper in the world and have been hoarding it due to coronavirus.
  • Alternatives to toilet paper are gaining more popularity with the public.

I was going to plumb in a bidet as it's dead easy to do, but some guy on Amazon said his one leaked and it destroyed his kitchen ceiling. There is no overflow for the plumbed in type, shown below. I found the portable type to be excellent, but some are better than others. 




The Big Think


Tyler Durden - Putin Says 'The Rich Must Pay' For The COVID-19 Chaos

I thought myself the other day that it is now time to get all the money owed us out of the tax havens. There might be enough to save the economy, and ultimately, the businesses of the elite too, as the ordinary guy is too maxed out to find the money.


In contrast, Putin has settled on a more rational and compassionate plan. He’s going to launch a relief program that actually focuses on the people who need it the most. Then, he’s going to cover the costs by taxing the people who are most capable of shouldering the burden. His intention is not to “soak the rich” or to redistribute wealth. He simply wants to find the most equitable way to share the costs for this completely unexpected crisis. In short, Putin was presented with two very bad options:

1– Let the Russian people huddle in their homes (“shelter in place”) until the food runs out and the bills pile up to the ceiling.

2–Or tap into a temporary source of revenue that will help the country get through the hard times.

He wisely chose the latter option not because he’s a fiery leftist who hates the “free market”, but because he realizes that in a time of national crisis, the people who are more able to pay, should pay. It’s a question of fairness.

Tyler Durden - Putin Says 'The Rich Must Pay' For The COVID-19 Chaos

$6 Trillion ‘rescue package,’ unaffordable bailouts and buybacks: Bend over, here it comes again!

Mitchell Feierstein has always come across as a bit of a libertarian to me, but here he says that in real capitalism some worker's rights and protection, and a social safety net are necessary. I still think I prefer the Scandinavian model, none the less.

All those free market entrepreneurs who shouted that private was best - neoliberalism - and now running to the government begging for bail-outs. Now they want benefits and welfare to help them out during the hard times, and yet they always avoided paying their fair share taxes. We don't have a nice word for poor people who do things like that.


Multi-billionaire Richard Branson owns the majority of shares in Virgin Atlantic airlines, an airline which will likely seek a £7.5 billion government bailout. Had Branson deployed capital to strengthen Virgin Atlantic’s balance sheet rather than using leverage to purchase Flybe, which has since gone bankrupt, perhaps a bailout of Virgin Atlantic would not be necessary. Why shouldn’t Branson use the excessive compensation he took from his company to bail out his company?



$6 Trillion ‘rescue package,’ unaffordable bailouts and buybacks: Bend over, here it comes again!

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Lack of Mental Game











The huge coronavirus bailouts will need to be paid back. Or will they? — Philip Inman

Willem Buiter, the Columbia University academic who was a founding member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee before becoming chief economist at Citigroup, says the US and UK now have money on tap in almost limitless amounts. The funds can sit on a central bank’s balance sheet for as long as it takes.
Critics of MMT argue it can prove to be too much and overheat an economy. At that point taxes would need to be increased – something that until now few believed western governments were capable of doing.
But in a post-pandemic world, inflation is unlikely to feature, and if it does, the central bank can just rein in its lending, as and when it deems necessary to keep inflation low....
Mixing up monetary policy with MMT.

The Guardian
The huge coronavirus bailouts will need to be paid back. Or will they?
Philip Inman

Modern monetary theory, COVID-19 and the economy — Stephen Hail

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC is obviously the biggest global emergency of its kind for more than a century. The social and economic impacts are without precedent and some will be long-lasting. Its lessons will be profound. Some of them will take years to unravel. Others are clear to many, and should be clear to all, even now.
One of these lessons is that in countries like ours, the limitations on the ability of the government to engage in very large amounts of spending to support people, organisations and the economy are entirely political. They are not financial. Governments with very high levels of what is commonly regarded as "national debt" have not been and will not be constrained by that debt.
Those currency-issuing institutions described below as "monetary sovereigns" simply gain the necessary political approval for additional spending and are then able to do it. The spending is self-financing. It does not have to be funded. That is not the way modern monetary systems work....
IndependentAustralian
Modern monetary theory, COVID-19 and the economy
Stephen Hail | Lecturer in economics in the School of Economics at the University of Adelaide and a research scholar at the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity

Unlocking Society — Brian Romanchuk

There is a pointless internet debate about the trade-off between "the economy" and "health." This is being fueled by a handful of articles from highly privileged people telling poor people to go back to work because it was impacting their stock or real estate portfolios. The reality is that there is no such thing as an "economy" at this point, just "society." Although a shutdown is tenable to flush out infections, the essentials must flow. From a North American standpoint, I believe that the emphasis will be on regions, and regions will unfreeze at different times....
Bond Economics
Unlocking Society
Brian Romanchuk

Now Rats..


Not good for disease control.... With the restaurants closed the vermin are going to be coming in looking for food...no longer just an easy restaurant dumpster dive...




Here's a good resource for rodent control this guy evaluates traps... numerous trap configurations with pretty thorough evaluation for both mice and rats nice channel coming in handy these days:



Trump: "It will all come roaring back again, and fast!"


Team Trump pumping the "V Shaped Recovery" thesis...




Poll: Only 3% of Venezuelans Say Guaido Is President, Only 4 % Trust Him

The Empire and its poodles insulting the intelligence (and self-determination) of Venezuelans by insisting he is


The latest poll out of Venezuela, from early March, shows that US-backed Juan Guaido is not considered the nation’s present by hardly anybody in the country. With a 3% margin of error, only 3% identified Guaido as president.

ICI: US Retirement Assets $32 Trillion


Well at least they WERE $32 trillion....





Saturday, March 28, 2020

Trump pivoting to wartime President


Lots of hardware in this:




Abbott coming out with new test equipment next week


Might help:




Congress Goes Big, States Play a Vital Part in Recovery, and a Dollar Crunch Takes Hold — Carl R. Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Vaibhav Tandon

In the medium term, the U.S. government has now joined other countries in putting Modern Monetary Theory into operation. The lines between fiscal and monetary policy have been blurred: the Department of the Treasury is providing $450 billion in seed capital for the Federal Reserve to use as leverage to buy loans and investments. These purchases will be designed to help the economy and the financial markets recover.
Reciprocally, the Fed will undertake open-ended quantitative easing, which will absorb a good fraction of the Treasury bonds that will be issued to pay for the congressional stimulus program. This will help interest rates remain in reasonable ranges.“Modern Monetary Theory has been made operational.”
Purists will certainly feel uneasy about this apparent compromise of central bank independence. But with interest rates at zero in most major markets, traditional levers of monetary policy have been exhausted. Financing fiscal efforts is the best way for central bankers to continue to pursue their mandates. And it is worth noting that central banks have historically played key roles in lending during periods of crisis.... 
Advisor Perspectives
Congress Goes Big, States Play a Vital Part in Recovery, and a Dollar Crunch Takes Hold
Carl R. Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Vaibhav Tandon of Northern Trust

The helicopters are coming — Willem H. Buiter


Originally at Project Syndicate. Reposted at CGTN.
CGTN (China Global Television Network), formerly known as CCTV-9 and CCTV News, is an international English-language news channel. A part of the China Global Television Network group, it is owned and operated by China Central Television (CCTV), the national media organization of China, under the control of the Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China. Wikipedia
CGTN
The helicopters are coming
Willem H. Buiter | former chief economist at Citigroup, now visiting professor at Columbia University

Stephanie Kelton — Ben Walsh


Behind a paywall, but you get the picture. Stephanie now has star power and she is a great explainer. MMT just moves to the front burner.

Barron's
Stephanie Kelton
Ben Walsh

A history of FLICC: the 5 techniques of science denial — John Cook


This is useful not only as a primer on recognizing and rebutting science denialism but also as a contribution to critical thinking in general.

I should be obvious by now that dismissing something as "conspiracy theory" without an adequate foundation is just another means of discrediting opponents and  achieving narrative control. But there are conspiracy theories out there that need debunking based on sound reasoning grounded in evidence.

Crazy Uncle
A history of FLICC: the 5 techniques of science denial
John Cook
hat tip to Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism

See also by John Cook

Using critical thinking to analyze misinformation

Authorities now hunting down New Yorkers


Wow now going full Darwin and open season on New York people ...

Mike's not leaving and is riding it out at ground zero in NYC... he's chronicling some of it on his Insty here: https://www.instagram.com/stories/mikeydoggy/



46,000 store closings


This "virus!" thing just accelerating the already projected retail closings ... CMBS have to be in BIIIIIIIGGG trouble... I don't see how Treasury's $400B of Fed guarantees is going to cover it... unless Fed plans on spending 25 cents on the dollar to begin with...






Bernie: "its Bill Gates' money"


Ok we know Bernie is stupid.. ok...  but here's the thing...

How stupid are you when you have Trump saying below "Its our money... its our currency" doesn't think its Bill Gates' money obviously... 

BUT THEN, you support Bernie anyway!

THAT is EVEN MORE stupid than being Bernie in the first place...







What is 'Reality'


This from the video examining 'Reality' below:





What turns percepts and concepts into knowledge ... is judgement... answering the question "is it true?"...


The Liberal Art/Platonist methodology continuously trains our people to NOT apply judgement...they are instead trained to synthesize....  this is the main (material) problem humanity faces today... and why we continuously see the same people making the same mistakes over and over and over and over....

These people are trained to never obtain knowledge... pretty sad... they should all get their munnie back and go get some proper training...


Will US helicopter money be effective? Yes, it probably will.

This week President Trump proposed sending Americans $1,000 checks. Such a direct stimulus is also known as ‘helicopter money.’ Not all Republicans were enthusiastic about this idea. For example, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby said “I don’t know the logic of that.” In this note we take a closer look at the economic logic behind helicopter money. Based on our analysis, we expect this to be effective in slowing down a sharp decline in consumer spending, although it will probably not be enough to bring the economy back on an upward growth path.

RoboResearch

Friday, March 27, 2020

This week in OPEC


You thought YOU had a bad week...

Here US Senators telling Saudi they have to abandon it:



Getting ready to roll up their member with the largest reserves in the western hemisphere pretty soon... there is going to be one less BIG place setting at the table soon there:





And dont forget Libya another one already reduced to stone age functionality... Let's keep up the good work!!!




Just take China's USDs as compensation for the virus


To build upon the previous post ie "its our currency"...

Here just take this USD balance highlighted here that the Chicomms have accrued and just ...  ZERO it the f_ck out... 

Then we call it "even!"... Trump has no balls if he doesn't hit this account on them for what they are putting us through...






Trump: "its our currency"


hahahahhaahhahaha!!!!!!!





The Coronavirus Does Not Discriminate; Unfortunately Our Economic System Does — Thomas Masterson

Without stronger and more direct action, the fallout for the most vulnerable will be even worse and the gaps between rich and poor, whites and non-whites in the US will grow even larger. Rather than subsidies for corporations with no oversight why not help state governments fill their budget shortfalls? During the Great Recession, too little was done to help states and they responded by cutting the things that could make a difference: education and healthcare. Cutting back on these things is not just pro-cyclical, which is bad enough, it reduces the future capacity of the states to deal with the next viral pandemic (in the case of healthcare cuts), as well as reducing the growth potential of the economy. As far as transfers, rather than a one-time payment, why not monthly transfers for the duration of the crisis? There is no doubt that sending US households a cash infusion will go some way towards offsetting the reduction in the demand for goods and services. However, a one-time cash infusion will have a much lower dollar-for-dollar impact than knowing there’s money coming in regularly. In the former situation households that can are more likely to set that infusion aside in case things get even worse....
Multiplier Effect
The Coronavirus Does Not Discriminate; Unfortunately Our Economic System Does
Thomas Masterson

A Recovery With Crippled Small Businesses Looks Awkward — Brian Romanchuk

We have just seen the beginning of post-COVID economic data, and the numbers are literally off the charts. My feeling is that aggregate numbers will be meaningless, and we will need to look at industry-level data. I just wanted to look a bit ahead, to the post-lockdown future. My main concerns revolve around the small business sector, which I fear will be taking a bigger hit than larger businesses. The issue is that small businesses are a major driver of employment -- and we are likely to start with elevated unemployment levels, even after the "re-start" phase hits....
Bond Economics
A Recovery With Crippled Small Businesses Looks Awkward
Brian Romanchuk

Stephanie Kelton— As Congress Pushes a $2 Trillion Stimulus Package, the “How Will You Pay For It?” Question Is Tossed in the Trash

Throughout the Democratic presidential primary, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren offered a slew of robust proposals to reshape the American economy. Yet the Democratic presidential primary hardly engaged with questions of whether that restructuring was wise, who would benefit, and who would lose. Instead, the debate was dominated in no small part by a single question: “How will you pay for it?”

On Friday, the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi who regularly dismissed the ideas put forward by Sanders and Warren as unrealistic, waved away that question, preparing to rubber-stamp a $2 trillion Senate package aimed at staving off economic collapse amid the coronavirus pandemic....
The Intercept
As Congress Pushes a $2 Trillion Stimulus Package, the “How Will You Pay For It?” Question Is Tossed in the Trash
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

DW — Coronavirus latest: World has 'clearly' entered recession — IMF head

15:51 "It is clear that we have entered recession," said IMF head Kristalina Georgieva. Due to the pandemic, the global economy experienced a "sudden stop" and the fund is now looking for a practical approach to prevent indebted countries from "falling off the cliff."
15:23 The ongoing pandemic will have a deep economic impact and recovery could be only expected in 2021, said IMF chief Georgieva. This target can only be reached if the virus is contained and liquidity problems are not allowed to turn into issues with solvency, which is the ability to pay debts.
15:17 The world has entered a recession which is as bad or worse than the global financial crisis of 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva has said. 
The next leg down in the failure of neolibetralism.

Deutsche Welle
Coronavirus latest: World has 'clearly' entered recession — IMF head

Fed should control yield curve.

*FT Opinion (Registration required)
Why the Fed should put the Treasuries market on a war footing 
Colby Smiththers

Links — 27 Mar 2020 Part 1

Sputnik
Belgium Confirms Case of COVID-19 Transmission From Human to Cat – National Centre

The Unz Review [sad. we hardly knew ye.]
Tulsi Gabbard Falls on Her Sword, by Philip Giraldi
Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer, now Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and founding member of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

TASS [corona virus doesn't mutate]
US scientists’ findings indicate vaccine against COVID-19 may be created — analysts

TASS
New system of testing can identify those with immunity to COVID-19, says watchdog chief

Fort Russ News

Counterpunch [blame state failure on neoliberalism]

Caitlin Johnstone — Rogue Journalist
All The Craziest Things About America Are Being Highlighted By This Virus
Caitlin Johnstone

Eurasia Review
Frank Kane

Awara
Current Situation in Russia in Connection with Covid-19

The National Interest [classic denial? Of course they are not going to provide a close-up of a secret]
Stealth Mystery. Did Russia’s Su-57 Fighter Really Fire a Special Missile?
David Axe

Jacobin [expanding footprint while the nation is distracted]
The Last Thing We Need Is a Military Shock Doctrine
Sarah Lazare

Signs of the Times
Trump signs TAIPEI Act, threatening "consequences" for nations that fail to toe US line on Taiwan

The Independent - World [priorities after all]

Bannon: "CCP an enemy to humankind"


The Right is on the warpath against China out of all of this...





Fauci: "the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"


Whaaaaaaaattttttt???????

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You — Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The U.S. government is enacting measures to save the airlines, Boeing, and similarly affected corporations. While we clearly insist that these companies must be saved, there may be ethical, economic, and structural problems associated with the details of the execution. As a matter of fact, if you study the history of bailouts, there will be....
Incerto
Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (With Mark Spitznagel)

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Links — 26 Mar 2020

Reminiscence of the Future
Finally! I Was Beginning To Worry.

Dances with Bears [well played]
RUSSIA’S MEDICAL AID OPERATION TO ITALY AVOIDED, NOT JUST POLISH AIRSPACE, BUT US ATTEMPTS TO STOP IT
John Helmer

Fort Russ News
When Russians Want to do Something Well, They Call Their Army
Arthur Evans

India Punchline
Covid-19: Modi, Putin to coordinate efforts
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

Irrussianality [download paper]
Russia’s Emergence as an International Conservative Power
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

MintPress News

Moon of Alabama
More Bits On The Corona Crisis

People's Dispatch [is the US set to pull a Noriega? desperation?]
US indicts Nicolas Maduro for ‘narcoterrorism’

Venezuela denounces US charges against Maduro as another coup d’état attempt

RT [are Putin and Xi next on the list? at what point does the ROW start laughing?]
‘New way of staging a coup’: Venezuelan FM blasts US for narco-terrorism charges against Maduro

Sputnik
US ‘Narco-Terrorism’ Charges Against Maduro May Be Pretext for Panama-Style Invasion, Observer Warns

Sputnik [Russia gaining soft power, West losing it]
Putin at G20: World Can't Afford to Act in 'Every Man for Himself' Manner Amid Coronavirus Crisis

Sputnik
Indian PM Modi Urges Countrymen to Support Needy, Animals During 21-Day Lockdown

Strategic Culture Foundation
Whither Coronavirus? When Will It End and What Will Happen Along the Way
Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer, now Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and founding member of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

Strategic Culture Foundation [should-read unless you've seen Gaslight (1944 George Cukor)]
The Art of Gaslighting
Cynthia Chung

The Grayzone
How a network of Ukrainian ultra-nationalists penetrated Canada’s Conservative Party to lobby for military conflictMoss Robeson

The Grayzone
“Forced labor” stories on China brought to you by US government, NATO and arms industry to drive Cold War PR blitz
Ajit Singh

The Unz Review
Chinese, Russian Corona Aid Is 80% Useless (Says CIA?)
Anatoly Karlin

The Vineyard of the Saker
Why France is hiding a cheap and tested virus cure
Pepe Escobar

The Vineyard of the Saker
A few recent political developments which should not go unnoticed
The Saker

Zero Hedge
72% Of Americans Now Avoiding All Public Places: Gallup Poll
Tyler Durden

Summit News [hybrid war heats up, hot war not far off?]
Senator Cotton: China Unleashed This Plague On the World
Steve Watson

Zero Hedge [Cat is a global bellwether]
Caterpillar Withdraws 2020 Guidance, Halts Some US Production

Zero Hedge [a new way to look at opportunity cost 😮😮😮]
Trump Warns Suicides From The Coming Economic Depression Will Far Surpass Those From The Virus
Tyler Durden

Reuters
Canada attacks 'damaging' Trump plan to deploy troops at border


The Senate's Coronavirus Relief Package Must be Stopped! — Mike Whitney

The Senate’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Package is not fiscal stimulus and it’s not a lifeline for the tens of millions of working people who have suddenly lost their jobs. It’s a fundamental restructuring of the US economy designed to strengthen the grip of the corrupt corporate-banking oligarchy while creating a permanent underclass that will be forced to work for slave wages. This isn’t stimulus, it’s shock therapy.
More disaster capitalism?

Stop the $6 Trillion Coronavirus Corporate Coup! — Matt Stoller

The American Economic Liberties Project (my org) put out a statement against the bill, AFL-CIO official Damon Silvers, who oversaw the 2008 bailout, put out an article against the bill, as did dozens of economics and finance professors. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned of the risks of a bill tilted to big business, as did libertarian member Justin Amash. John Cassidy wrote in the New Yorker how to do a bailout without corruption. And Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin pointed out that the bill is “robbing taxpayers to bail out the rich.”
But then these two Senators, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell, cut a deal last night. And from what I can tell, it’s really really bad, and much of the bad stuff is not being included in the sleazy marketing materials from Schumer and McConnell, or in the reporting about the bill. There’s a reason for that. Sunlight would kill this thing.
That means there is a narrow way to stop it....
BIG by Matt Stoller
Stop the $6 Trillion Coronavirus Corporate Coup!
Matt Stoller

America’s Ideological Infection — Christopher R. Hill

The United States is not only in the grips of a COVID-19 crisis that threatens to derail the economy and potentially take millions of lives. It is also suffering from a president who is deeply suspicious of expertise and of governance generally....
In my view, the second sentence should read, "Americans that are deeply suspicious of expertise and of governance generally elected a president that shares this view. Blaming government policy on the president rather than the political process is myopic. Polling indicates that the president's popularity at a high. This is an opportunity cost of representative democracy in a plutocracy in which competing elite factions control the narrative through the media. 

This should not devolve into being about personalities rather than issues. Democracy requires compromise rather than standing on principle no matter, with the winning faction imposing its will based on "elections have consequences," and the losing faction doing everything possible to neutralize the winning faction and preventing it from governing. Unfortunately, this has become the American way and it is resulting in divisiveness and paralysis.

I have my own attitudes and preferences in this regard but that is of no consequences to anyone but me. As citizens we should be debating issues and discussing qualifications. Not that the leadership's character should not be a subject of discussion, but that too is largely an ideological matter. Focus on personalities is basically a distraction and is is also used factionally in narrative control. Beware of being sucked in.

Why is this so significant? In addition to being part of the democratic process based on informed debate and free inquiry, it is also a matter of the collective consciousness. It is useless to criticize others on moral and ethical grounds that are largely ideological other than for political advantage and to "feel good" by venting. This is poison individually and it breaks the coherence of collective consciousness that is necessary for solidarity and community.

Most importantly, in addition to being blinded by partisan ideology, which is manipulated, focusing on personality poisons collective consciousness and lowers the "vibration" of the nation at at time when a high vibratory level characterized by resonance and coherence is needed to address emergent challenges and seize opportunities. The Chinese character for crisis includes both challenge and opportunity. Every breakdown is an opportunity for a breakthrough. What does kill you will make you stronger. This is true individually and socially.

Mike Norman constantly emphasizes that the mental game is as important as analysis and execution in markets. This involves establishing a center and functioning from it, focusing on the important instead of being distracted by the trivial, as well as maintaining poise under fire and in spite of the emotional heat or cold of "animal spirits" (Keynes).

For most people, self-talk is not enough, even though the messaging we send ourselves is important. Useful aphorisms here are, "Don't entertain negativity," and "Be happy, don't worry," even in the most challenging circumstances. But many people need more than words.

Most people will profit by incorporating some centering practice or practices that promote managing stress and giving deep relaxation. There are many such practices available and one is best advised to look for those that fit one's own disposition, since success in this requires a discipline of regular practice.

Project Syndicate

Michael Hudson — People’s Forum: Economic Lessons for 2020

Economic Lessons for 2020: A Conversation with Dr. Michael Hudson
Peoples Forum, December 12, 2019.

Michael Hudson re-posted this today on his site.

Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
People’s Forum: Economic Lessons for 2020
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

Bill Mitchell — “We need the state to bail out the entire nation”

Major developments across the globe in monetary and fiscal policy keep happening on a daily basis at present. We are now hearing conservatives, who previously made careers out of claims that government deficits would send nations broke and more, appearing in the media now claiming “We need the state to bail out the entire nation”. Not too many economists are pushing the line that the market will deal with this crisis. They all the want the state to be front and centre as their own personal empires (income etc) becomes vulnerable. In a normal downturn there is not much sympathy for the most disadvantaged workers who bear the brunt of the unemployment. Now it is different. This crisis has the potential to wipe out the middle classes and the professional classes. And suddenly, who would have thought – the nation state is apparently back, all powerful and being begged to intervene. It is wake up time. Now no-one can be unclear about the fiscal capacity of the state. They now know that politicians who claim they don’t have enough money to do things were lying all along. They just didn’t want to do them. And when this health crisis was over we have to demand that the governments continue to lead the way financially and work out solutions to the socio-ecological climate crisis. No-one can say there is not enough funds to do whatever it takes. We all know now there are unlimited funds. The question must turn to the best way to use them. I also provide in this post some further estimates of the labour market disaster that Australia is facing as part of the development of my 10-point or something plan. It is all pretty confronting....

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
“We need the state to bail out the entire nation”
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

UK readying tests that can tell whether you had the virus


New test may be soon available...





Powell: ""we're required to get full security for our loans so that we dont lose money"


Morons:  "Fed can just run negative equity!"

Wrong....




Teresa Ghilarducci - Why Big Business Might Welcome A Carbon Tax

I recently said on Twitter that regulations would might be better than a carbon tax, but as soon as I tweeted it I wondered how easy would that be to implement worldwide and whether a tax might work better?

This article addresses that question.

Why not just use regulations instead of taxes, like mileage standards for cars? Economists know regulation is complicated. Regulations by nature have to sort between what is a target and what isn’t. The regulatory process contains numerous opportunities for lobbyists to get their particular interest excluded.

Fuel economy standards are a perfect example. The miles-per-gallon rules first applied to motor vehicles in 1978 (Corporate Average Fuel Economy or CAFE) were subject to massive lobbying by automobile companies, who succeeded in having light trucks (mostly pickups) given a lower standard. This exclusion meant less effective reduction of pollution, and also helped feed the growing market share of pickups and SUVs while helping to kill off station wagons and other car models.

Forbes 

Teresa Ghilarducci - Why Big Business Might Welcome A Carbon Tax

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Money Printer Go Brrr ... And No Inflation? — Brian Romanchuk

Although a big fiscal package is in the pipeline (admittedly the Greatest Deliberative Body in the World is playing its usual log-rolling games), smashed supply, and rampant "money printing" (ha!), breakeven inflation in the United States is cratering (figure above). This is exactly what should have happened, although the big question is whether current pricing is an overshoot of fundamentals. (I leave that market call to the reader.) I outline why this puzzling inflation perspective is the correct call -- top down inflation analysis will not work, we need to go bottom up....
Bond Economics
Money Printer Go Brrr ... And No Inflation?
Brian Romanchuk

Links — 25 Mar 2020 Part 1

Common Dreams

Antonio Fatas on the Global Economy
COVID-Economics Links (March 25)

Bruegel
Coronavirus and the politics of a common fiscal instrument
Mark Hallerberg and Stavros Zenios

econintersect.com
Why Did President Trump Call Coronavirus "Chinese Virus"?
Frank Li | Chinese ex-pat, Founder and President of W.E.I. (West-East International), a Chicago-based import & export company, B.E. from Zhejiang University (China) in 1982, M.E. from the University of Tokyo in 1985, and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University in 1988, all in Electrical Engineering

Bill Totten's Weblog

economicintersect.com
Coronavirus Reminds Americans That Pursuit Of Happiness Is Tied To The Collective Good
Christopher Beem, Managing Director of the McCourtney Institute of Democracy, Co-host of Democracy Works Podcast, Pennsylvania State University


SouthFront [information warfare as a key piece in hybrid warfare]
Shoigu Warns Of Inceasing Cyber And Propaganda Attacks Against Russian Army

SouthFront
Russia To Accelerate Testing Of Hypersonic Weapons, Start Serial Production Of Sarmat ICBM

Sputnik
Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal to Be 87% Modernized by End of 2020 – Defence Minister

Zero Hedge
EU Shrugs Off US Sanctions, Gives Millions In Coronavirus Aid To Iran
Tyler Durden

Anti-Empire