The ball is in Victoria Nuland's court. (And you thought Joe Biden was president?)
The Vineyard of the Saker
Putin rewrites the law of the geopolitical jungle
Pepe Escobar for The Saker blog
See also at VS
Afghanistan.
American plans something but ends up differently
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
Francis Lee for The Saker blog
One World
Why's The West Covering Up The Foiled Belarusian Coup Attempt?
Dances with Bears
THE BLIN-NOODLE GANG (BLINKEN-NUDELMAN) SINKS FROM THE BALTIC TO BLACK SEA AND THE SHORES OF TRIPOLI
John Helmer
Naked Capitalism
Biden’s Appeasement of Hawks and Neocons Is Crippling His Diplomacy
Medea Benjamin, cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and author of several books, including Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran ,and Nicolas J. S. Davies, an independent journalist, a researcher with CODEPINK and the author of Blood On Our Hands: the American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq
Also at NC
largi: Ukraine Warheads
See also
Why's The West Covering Up The Foiled Belarusian Coup Attempt?
Andrew Korbko
See also
THE BLIN-NOODLE GANG (BLINKEN-NUDELMAN) SINKS FROM THE BALTIC TO BLACK SEA AND THE SHORES OF TRIPOLI
John Helmer
See also
Biden’s Appeasement of Hawks and Neocons Is Crippling His Diplomacy
Medea Benjamin, cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and author of several books, including Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran ,and Nicolas J. S. Davies, an independent journalist, a researcher with CODEPINK and the author of Blood On Our Hands: the American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq
largi: Ukraine Warheads
Tom, you already know all this. Russians aren’t ignorant. They know that Turkey’s task after the fall of the Soviet Union was to bring these ex Soviet republics into NATO control lest they become neutral. For example, behind Chechnya and Georgia was Turkey pushing the buttons. And now hence Ukraine’s turn. Same in the Arab world with talk of a neo-Ottoman empire, and with Qatar as the “bridge.”
ReplyDeleteThese plans predate Erdogan. Islamist Turks, Kemalist (secular) Turks — all really the same.
You know what I’d like for Easter? More Russian ordinances on Turkish troops.
The British, Russian and Ottoman empires were contenders. The US is the successor to the British empire. The Persian Chinese and Japanese empires are also in the mix. The great game goes on. Then there are all the more or less minor empires of the past, too, e.g., French, Dutch, etc. These are all proud peoples with civilizations behind them.
ReplyDeleteAll these forces are still in play. Hysteresis and path dependence. This is what geopolitics and geostrategy are about.
The people involved in this game have a good background in history, including military history. This is why analyzing the maneuvering is almost obvious, although, of course, it goes unmentioned other than occasionally, like Zbig's book on the great game.
Interestingly, Erdogan is now being obvious about his Turkic revanchism. Russia, on the other hand, is in a consolidation phase and is not presently interested in expansion, but it will defend its perceived interests as a civilization.
It seemed like a good idea to bring Turkey into NATO at the time, but it was a predictable blunder even then. Same can be said for Eastern Europe, which is a wild card. The Russian borders are therefore a tinderbox and NATO is playing with matches. Dumb, as Putin just warned.
BTW, the great civilization influence operative in our region of the world came from Alexander (Hellenistic Empire), the Roman Empire, and Islamic Empire.
ReplyDeleteAnd most people in the West are unaware of the role of the Mongol Empire in East. The Mongol Empire was one of the world's largest. Interestingly, in the West Genghis Khan is regraded as a predator, whereas in the East Alexander is similarly regarded.
ReplyDeleteBTW, if you don't know of The HU, check out the Mongol music scene.
Victoria Nuland is in Biden's cabinet?
ReplyDeleteEastern Europe appears to hate/distrust the Russians. Job well done.
ReplyDeleteEastern Europe appears to hate/distrust the Russians. Job well done.
ReplyDeleteNothing new, they occupied the inconvenient position between the Eastern hordes and the Teutonic knights.
The point of the historical analysis is that this shapes the thinking of contemporary foreign policy folks. It's major portion of what they study.
ReplyDeleteThey see the world in terms of empires and civilizations expanding, contracting and consolidating. The objective is hegemon in the "world" they occupy.
For example, the US and Israel are expanding, and while the US seeks global dominance, Israel seeks to dominate its region. Turkey is also in an expansionist phase while Russia and China is consolidating, although China is moving toward expansion of influence.
The European empires are contracting and the British have passed their empire to the US, receiving a token position in return. The EU was conceived on the order of the Roman Empire and Holy Roman Empire as an expansionist phase of European civilization to balance the Anglo-American empire. So far that has not gone well. But the project presses on.
Russia to scrutinize military cooperation with Turkey, if it supplies drones to Ukraine
ReplyDeletehttps://tass.com/politics/1281075
What is the point of analyses that have no practical application?
ReplyDeleteExpansionism in an age of atomic weapons is insane.
Expansionism with 8 billion people is unavoidably genocidal in scale. There's no frontier left for those who are displaced.
The Great Game is over.
Israel and Turkey have common enemies (Syria, Hezbollah), common goals (strategic and commercial), hence their love for each other. When you hear Erdogan condemn Israel’s actions against the Palestinians, it’s just talk for home consumption.
ReplyDeleteYou know, the CIA has two great assets in the region; Israel and Turkey, with Israel just having a little higher status.
I call Trump a grifter. Lol... The orange baboon wishes he had Erdogan’s ability to grift. No coincidence that Trump got along well with him. Nothing but envy.
Expansionism in an age of atomic weapons is insane.
ReplyDeleteExpansionism with 8 billion people is unavoidably genocidal in scale. There's no frontier left for those who are displaced.
The Great Game is over.
Except that at least some of the US foreign policy types are apparently insane according to Ray McGovern
Strategically, the Russian military and Kremlin leaders are frequently reminded that there are crazies at the U.S. 4-Star level — beyond the military and civilian crazies in Washington and Ukraine. New weapons and deployments have reduced the time leaders need in order to distinguish between a false alarm and an actual attack. And loose talk on Twitter in the middle of Monday night by the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) adds to the things Gen. Shoigu has to worry about.
The Tweet read, in part:
We must account for the possibility of conflict leading to conditions which could very rapidly drive an adversary to consider nuclear use as their least bad option.
Writing in the U.S. Naval Institute Journal early this year, STRATCOM commander Admiral Charles A. Richard warned:
There is a real possibility that a regional crisis with Russia or China could escalate quickly to a conflict involving nuclear weapons,” he wrote, demanding that the United States “prepare for the conflict we prefer, instead of one we are likely to face.
If this betokens a change in U.S. strategic doctrine or policy, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin owes it to the world to have the words translated into understandable English. Otherwise, prudence would force Gen. Shoigu and his Chinese counterpart to read Admiral Richard’s prose — and the Tweet from STRATFOR — the the most alarming light.
Except that at least some of the US foreign policy types are apparently insane according to Ray McGovern
ReplyDeleteIt's about the families, Tom: the Clintons, the Bush's/Cheney's, Obama's/Biden's -- they've all made a monetary fortune while in office. Trump wanted his share as well. That's what Erdogan promised him (probably at first via the disgraced General Michael Flynn).
The crazies belong in an institution where they are not in charge.
ReplyDeleteThat tweet is nonsensical.
It is assumed that a military prepares for the type of conflicts they are likely to face, along with contingency plans in case their estimations are off.
The conflicts one prefers are presumably those that can be instigated. Isn't that the job of the Secretary of State?
Erdogan is more trouble than he is worth, so his days are numbered.
ReplyDeleteHawks have run US foreign policy since Truman. While presidents are nominally in charge of foreign policy they take their advice from the foreign policy establishment including the military and intel.
ReplyDeletePresidents basically act as a check on foreign policy hawkishness if it not politically advantageous to them. They don't dictate foreign policy.
That is why the foreign policy establishment and intel services are so involved in creating the narrative to get public support, as well as funding for the MIC through the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex). Presidents are generally reluctant to go against the foreign policy establishment.
For example, while Biden ordered the military to withdraw from Afghanistan, contractors and intel will be staying and perhaps special forces as needed. Also expect various "reasons" to get Biden shift position before the actually withdrawal. The foreign policy establishment, military and intel services look at the time in there and the costs involved as an investment. They are not willing to walk away from that and leave the region on the table for other players to pick up, in particular Russia, Iran and China, which are all active in the area.
Al-Qaeda Still Threat to US Personnel in Afghanistan Via Taliban Links - Pentagon
ReplyDelete“Erdogan is more trouble than he is worth, so his days are numbered.“
ReplyDeleteHe’s starting to look and sound like Biden... old. So, yeah, his days are numbered.
They can create narratives, but public support is apathetic at best. The lack of an antiwar movement in the US is the fault of the electorate. Their focus, to the extent that they can be bothered to focus, is on domestic politics.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan is an investment?
They lost the war. Someone should forward them the memo.
Afghanistan is an investment?
ReplyDeleteThey lost the war. Someone should forward them the memo.
The wars in the region are not meant to be "won" with the US leaving. The point is to be there and then extend US presence in the region. This is all about Russia, China and Iran. The rest is prelude.
Pakistan is in charge as far as Afghanistan is concerned. Who is allied with Pakistan?
ReplyDeleteNot looking good for US ambitions in that region. The spoils (supposedly a pipeline and mining) are going to go elsewhere.
MAGA wants us out of there with nothing ever to do with them ever again...
ReplyDeleteWe were never in Afghanistan pre 9/11.. gulf region we were for the oil which we don’t need anymore..,
ReplyDeleteSo in hindsight the better response to 9/11 would have been an immediate civilian directed nuclear strike on Afghanistan for maximum destruction one and done of that country and accelerated transition from gulf sources of petroleum leading to permanent withdrawal from that region...
Instead we got a series of military directed counter insurgency operations that can never end and decades of inaction on petroleum...
Why a nuclear strike on Afghanistan, when the real culprits were from Saudi Arabia?
ReplyDeleteIn hindsight, the war in Afghanistan was a waste of lives, resources and treasure.
But Tom is a student of these foreign policy types. If they insist it's an investment, then it must be! We're too dim too grasp the brilliance of their moves.
Afghan provided refuge for the terrorists to plan and organize the act of terror with impunity.... so that nation should have been eliminated...
ReplyDeleteWars are ideally between nations not people...
"Al-Qaeda Still Threat to US Personnel in Afghanistan."
ReplyDeleteDidn't a State Department official blurt out earlier this week that Al-Qaeda in Syria are US allies?
"...immediate civilian directed nuclear strike on Afghanistan..."
ReplyDeleteThis is nuts on so many levels.
"MAGA wants us out of there with nothing ever to do with them ever again..."
ReplyDeleteYeah, and head-first into China.
It's funny to watch Tucker Carlson interrupt his daily white supremacist rants on his show to bash China :)
Why a nuclear strike on Afghanistan, when the real culprits were from Saudi Arabia? In hindsight, the war in Afghanistan was a waste of lives, resources and treasure. But Tom is a student of these foreign policy types. If they insist it's an investment, then it must be! We're too dim too grasp the brilliance of their moves.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Iran were all seen as opportunities in term of Zbig's grand chessboard strategy for permanent US hegemony by taking the MC and Central Asia and then China. at the time, they thought they had Eastern Europe and Russia wrapped up owing to the collapse of the USSR, interpreted as an American victory in the region.
The neocon's and many in the foreign policy establishment still see it this way, even those Zbig himself gave up on in his later years. But now with the rise of China and resurgence of Russia, many are seeing this as a make of break moment for the US and even "Western civilization" and the liberalism on which modernism if based.
Now no other voices are allowed in the room, as DJT learned when they removed Bannon and Flynn out of the gate, and essentially charged him with treason, managing to impeach him twice without success in removing him from office. Now a lot people — Rasmussen has 51% in a recent poll — believe that DJT won the 2020 election.
And yes, this is largely about foreign policy. TPTB, including the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex), are vehemently opposed to "isolationist" America First.
It's about wealth and power, the deadly components, based on overweening pride and rapacious greed. Nothing new to see here. It's been going one for millennia with empires coming and going. The difference now is that the stakes are not the adjacent region but the entire global and near space. Who is going to leave that on the table when it is there for the taking?
This tell me that Tulsi Gabard would be assassinated if she ran for president, and polls were remotely in her favor.
ReplyDeleteWho is going to leave that on the table when it is there for the taking?
It's not there for the taking.
This is some sort of psychological group fantasy.
They can be allowed to play a lesser game of destroying smaller countries for sport - but hopefully the adults in the room would block them from going nuclear.