Vineyard of the Saker
One week into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine – update
http://thesaker.is/one-week-into-the-russian-special-operation-in-the-ukraine-update/
Day 7 – major moves in the south, human right report suppressed
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/day-7-major-moves-in-the-south-human-right-report-suppressed/
Warning! Viewer discretion is strongly advised! The contents of these materials are extremely graphic!
Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations in GenevaWar Crimes and Crimes against Humanity Committed by the Ukrainian Military-Political Leadership in Donbass
https://geneva.mid.ru/en_US/web/geneva_en/donbasstragedy
China Won't Join Russia Sanctions, Banking Regulator Warns
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-wont-join-west-sanctioning-russia-top-banking-regulator-warns
Lavrov Says Third World War Would Be "Nuclear" & "Destructive" (back to MAD. Don't say you weren't warned.)
Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lavrov-says-third-world-war-would-be-nuclear-destructive
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lavrov-says-third-world-war-would-be-nuclear-destructive
Compared with WWII, the sun is setting on the US, which is now trying to boost its influence by talking big and launching wars of words. Who is it trying to fool? Who can it intimidate? Forget about two wars, even one theater of war would be too much for the US.…
"For China, as officials have repeatedly made it clear, it will not join such sanctions and will, as always, carry out normal economic and trade cooperation with Russia and all parties."
Global Times (Chinese state-sponsored media) ()
GT Voice: Western sanctions only create more problems for the global economyhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253744.shtml
Analysis: Nuclear Disaster in Ukraine Could Make Swaths of Europe 'Uninhabitable for Decades'
Jake Johnson
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/2761684730989137546/2851893484304527693#
Opening Salvos Thrown – What Are Putin’s Next Steps in Ukraine?
Tom Luongo
https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/02/opening-salvos-tossed-putin-next-moves-ukraine/
Zoltan Pozsar Warns Russian Sanctions Threaten Dollar's Reserve Status
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zoltan-pozsar-warns-russian-sanctions-threaten-dollars-reserve-status
ReplyDeleteLavrov Says Third World War Would Be "Nuclear" & "Destructive"
He also said a few weeks ago that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, so what does he know? ;)
No contradiction actually. All the US had to do was to agree with Russia's security demands. There was a possibility to negotiation up until there no longer was, that is, when the Ukrainians started advancing on Donbass.
ReplyDeleteTom, I was kidding, that's why ";)"
DeleteAlso, is it really a war or, according to the saker, "a special operation."? What is the threshold for civilian, military deaths and whatnot destruction before, with all due respect to the saker, we can call it a bonafide, no-killing barred war?
Security demands? Yeah, the Ukrainians were right all along to demand those stingers and javelins. (Thank you, Obama) Anyway, they've already arrived with more lethal weapons to follow. Better late than never for the killing to escalate, let alone you-know-what.
This invasion is nuts, Tom. Any legitimate grievances the Russians my have had...
Anyway, all the talk is meaningless in the final analysis, which is determined by reality — "facts on the ground." What is happening is the beginning of an advanced phase in the zero-sum game between the West and Russia and China over the future of Western global hegemony. Time will decide. The rest is a series of iterations in the process that can be compared with moves on a chess board, which after all is a game of strategy — although the Japanese game of go is probably a better analogy.
ReplyDeleteThe United States is facing the greatest strategic threat in history with the new partnership between Russia and the Chinese regime, warned KT McFarland, former deputy national security adviser under the Trump administration.
ReplyDelete“The strategic threat is from China,” McFarland said.
“The greatest strategic threat is China, Russia together; that Chinese technology, Chinese money, Chinese ruthlessness—you know, wolf-warrior diplomacy—married up with Russian natural resources and Russian military capability, that’s a really formidable adversary for the United States.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-russia-pose-unprecedented-strategic-threat-us-former-trump-adviser
Of course, use of nukes changes everything, and makes much more probable nuclear winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
ReplyDeleteI now estimate the likelihood of nuke-use during the either this phase of the process or the next phase as more 50-50 based on the way things are moving. That could change when this realization begins to be internalize though.
Russia has 2000 tactical nukes and NATO will be the target and the means to deliver them against which there is no defense presently. Russia has said this includes all countries that support NATO with bases or command centers, regardless of whether they are members of NATO. This means all of Europe and the UK is at risk.
Striking the US would likely result in nuclear winter. But Russia has said that in case of hostilities that the US has instigated, the US will be hit too, specifically Washington, DC. I would expect New York to go right away too. But that is just an initial estimate. Russian subs can deliver enough nukes to take out much of US capability to operate.
From the reaction so far, apparently most people in the West are not aware of this or don't care.
Clarification. IIRC, Russia did not mention the initial use of nukes in attacking NATO bases and command centers in Europe. Presumably it would use convention munitions. So far Russian policy is to use nukes only if NATO conventional forces pose an existential threat to Russia, at least as I understand it Thermobaric munitions are conventional and FOAB (Russia answer to MOAB) is almost a mini-nuke in power. Therefore, thing would not go nuclear off the bat. But once hostilities between Russia and NATO would begin, escalation can be expected.
ReplyDelete.
As long as you wear a mask and social distance, you'll be safe.
ReplyDeleteIt’s a Soviet civil war… hopefully they kill each other…. We should just stay out of it…
ReplyDeleteDon't tell us, tell it to those lunatics who want NATO to impose a no-fly zone...
ReplyDeleteUkraine can do no fly zone by themselves with additional equipment..
ReplyDeleteAnd the no fly zone theyre talking about is over Ukraine not Russia…
Erik Prince was on with Bannon last week he pitched DoD late last year he would take 75-100 of the 250 imminently decommissioning F/A aircraft and man them with Ukraine and contractor pilots in Ukraine and none of this would have happened… was going to cost 200M for the program…
They didnt go for it then … maybe they’re looking at something similar now… but time is ticking…
What concerns me is the rising level of lunacy, which is now off the charts owing to the hype of infowar and Clinonista-driven Russophobia.
ReplyDeleteIn "democracies" it is politicans that make the decision to go to war and then direct the military to do so, which the military will do, as I read testimony of former US military and intel honchos like Pat Lang.
Politicians are completely unqualified on this level, and they respond to what they think voters will do in the next election. It's a totally crazy system.
We've entered much deeper into la-la land and we were pretty deep in already.
Matt, the Russian military is not going to go for a ruse like contractors. The US has been using this ploy at least since Iraq, and the Russian generals are not dopes. They will call a spade a spade.
ReplyDeleteWe are not dealing with semantics anymore but cold, hard reality.
Only lunatics would think that the US could get away with this without the Russian taking it as an act of war.
Russia already feels this is existential for them. The US and allies do not — yet. Russia will keep turning up the heat until they do or ….
ReplyDeleteI think Putin is doing the existential thing… I have a hard time velievingvthatvyounger Russians are into all this existentialism…
ReplyDeleteThey are looking at living in North Korea…
They are all going to leave and come here…. We need them here anyway so maybe for the better..
ReplyDelete@ Matt
ReplyDeletehttp://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/russia-is-crushed-completely-by.html (snark)
It’s a Soviet civil war… hopefully they kill each other…. We should just stay out of it…
ReplyDeleteExactly.
Putin has been hammering on this in his speeches on causality.
But the Blob is set on exploiting it, analogous to disaster capitalism.
Moscow better finish off the Kiev regime, or Washington will be happy to transform this conflict into Russia's next Afghanistan.
ReplyDeleteTom if by some miracle VP turns up at room temperature there is going to be a party over there that will make the wall coming down look like a Baptist Wedding…. Opposing soldiers getting drunk together etc… it will be off the hook…
ReplyDelete"Special operation" is Russia's term rather than "war," which is why The Saker uses it. He is of Russian ancestry, is fluent in Russia, is Orthodox Christian and pro-Russian. He is also trained as a military analyst, which is why I link to him.
ReplyDeleteHow one feels about this is irrelevant for analysis and can get in the way of objective analysis. Look at all the past conflicts that people read about in the history books. What counts is how the lines were redrawn. Feelings are high at the time, but irrelevant historically other than as causal factors and determinants of outcomes.
I am anti-war moralistically, which should be obvious to readers of this blog. But when I put the hat of an analyst, I try to be objective about what happened, what is happening, and what may happen if certain courses of actions are pursued.
I don't talk about my actual position on events here since it is not relevant and few hold it. It is basically the view that Krishna elaborates in the Bhagavad Gita and Meher Baba in the sections on violence and non-violence in Discourses, both of which are wrapped in a non-dual metaphysics and epistemology.
"...if by some miracle VP turns up at room temperature..."
ReplyDeleteThat took me a few seconds to figure out.
God is going to put "hooks in his jaws", i.e., Putin's jaws. The idea being that Putin is doing God's will. This is the Islamic position also, i.e., all acts come from God and there is nothing in creation but God's will. Watch the video in the following article.
ReplyDelete'He's being compelled by God': Televangelist Pat Robertson, 91, comes out of retirement to declare Putin is following God's wishes by invading Ukraine and it heralds 'end times' battle in Israel
It was Mother Teresa, I believe, who said it is easy to know God's will — it is what happens."
ReplyDeleteThe problem is, of course, that it is impossible to know this before it actually happens.
It is God's will that Pat Robertson makes a fool of himself.
ReplyDelete“That took me a few seconds to figure out.“
ReplyDeleteIt was figurative language…
Ahmed lol,
ReplyDelete“ The prediction from the elderly broadcaster is just the latest a series of so-far-unfulfilled prophecies forecasting the end of the world, many made in in his old age.
In 1976, the CBN talking head predicted that 'there is going to be a judgment on the world' that would result in its end in 1982.
In his 1990 book, The New Millennium, Robertson again asserted that the world would be destroyed on April 29, 2007, ”
iirc There is a scripture where Jesus said to the effect you can identify a false prophet because what they prophesy doesn’t happen…
These guys have to start to think about what adjustment they are going to make if at some point the nation Israel gets its ass kicked a bit and Jesus doesn’t come to rescue them during the events…
Which they won’t because their Art degrees they have have trained them to keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result the next time… ie moron factory….
Matt,
ReplyDeleteI was referring to the part that everyone including Putin can only do the will of God, not the prophecy part. As for prophecy, Islam is rich in prophecy in both the Qur'an and the prophetic traditions. And these are not your vague Nostradamus-type prophecies, but clearly mention names, dates, and places. In point of fact, Islam began with a double prophecy as regards the Romans versus the Persians, and the Muslims versus their enemies. To wit:
Battle of Antioch (613)
The Battle of Antioch took place in 613 outside Antioch, Turkey between a Byzantine army led by Emperor Heraclius and a Persian Sassanid army under Generals (spahbed) Shahin and Shahrbaraz as part of the Byzantine–Sassanid War of 602–628. The victorious Persians were able to maintain a hold on the recently taken Byzantine territory. The victory paved the way for further Sasanian advance into the Levant and Anatolia.
From the same Wikipedia article, the mention of it in the Qur'an in a Surah titled "al-Rum" (The Romans) and the first part of the prophecy (bold mine):
The Quran refers to this battle in the 30th chapter which was revealed shortly after the battle, Surat al-Rum. In it, Allah mentions that "The Romans [Byzantines] have been defeated. In a land close by; but they will soon be victorious-Within a few years. Allah's is the command before and after; and on that day the believers shall rejoice."[Quran 30:2-4] The Polytheists of Mecca made fun of the Muslims because of this Prophecy as the chances of this happening were grim. Abu Bakr made a bet with Ubay ibn Khalaf for ten camels that the prophecy would come true within three years, the bet was later revised from ten to a hundred camels and duration from three to nine years i.e. if the Romans defeated Persians in under nine years Ubayy bin Kahlad would pay Abu Bakr a hundred camels and vice versa. Eventually the Byzantines did defeat the Persians nine years later at the Battle of Issus in 622, fulfilling the prophecy made in the Quran and hence Abu Bakr won, but by that time betting had been forbidden in Islam so he had to give out his gains as charity. This incident is referred by Muslims as another Miracle of the Quran.
To clarify, what happened was that when Abu Bakr informed the Prophet Muhammad of the bet, Muhammad informed him that the word used in the Qur'an for the time period meant between 3 and 9 years, hence for the reason of rewriting the bet, which the man mentioned above would only do if the size of the bet was increased.
As this was a double prophecy, the other part of the prophecy was the Battle of Badr in 624 AD when the Muslims defeated an army three times their size, thus fulfilling the double prophecy and the beginning of the rise of Islam.
re: prophecies of the fall of the Persian empire
ReplyDeleteWhile there are many prophetic traditions prophesying the coming fall of the Persian Empire, it really culminated here, as shown by Wikipedia:
Kisra (Khosrow II) was a Persian king to whom Muhammad had sent a messenger, Abdullah ibn Hudhafah as-Sahmi, along with a letter in which Khosrow was asked to preach the religion of Islam. The account as transmitted by Muslim tradition reads:
"In the name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful. From Muhammad, the Messenger of Allah, to Kisra, the great (leader/head) of the Persians. Peace be upon him, who seeks truth and expresses belief in Allah and in His Prophet and testifies that there is no god but Allah and that He has no partner, and who believes that Muhammad is His servant and Prophet. Under the Command of Allah, I invite you to Him. He has sent me for the guidance of all people so that I may warn them all of His wrath and may present the unbelievers with an ultimatum. Embrace Islam so that you may remain safe (in this life and the next). And if you refuse to accept Islam, you will be responsible for the sins of the Magi."
Islamic tradition further states that Khosrow II tore up Muhammad's letter saying, "A pitiful slave among my subjects dares write his name before mine" and commanded Badhan, his vassal ruler of Yemen, to dispatch two valiant men to identify, seize and bring this man from Hijaz (Muhammad) to him. When Abdullah ibn Hudhafah as-Sahmi told Muhammad how Khosrow had torn his letter to pieces, Muhammad promised the destruction of Khosrow II stating, "Even so, Allah shall destroy his kingdom."
When the two men arrived to arrest him, Muhammad said:
Go back and tell your lord that tonight my Lord has killed his lord.
When Badhan made inquiry, he found that Kisra had died by the hand of his own son. Badhan and the governors of Yemen converted to Islam. You can read about the death of Kisra here:
Khosrow II
That somewhat relies on Roman’s and Byzantines being the same thing.., which one could argue are not the same as the eastern church was a new creation being divided out of preceding original Roman church…
ReplyDeleteAll new creation happens either thru division or recombination..
If they were talking specifically about the secular Byzantine nation then perhaps they were prescient …