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Saturday, April 30, 2022

Sitrep: Operation Z — Nightvision

The situation in Ukraine is approaching a junction point. The US/NATO is determined not to lose and is seemingly committing to do what it takes to prevail.  Nightvision lays out some scenarios involving escalation. How this may unfold is unclear but preparations are underway. While Nightvision does not mention it, NATO honchos are meeting at the US base in Ramstein to discuss strategy, along with the head of Ukraine's military. NATO versus Russia appears to be on.

Meanwhile the standoff at the Azovstal seems to be resolving.

The Vineyard of the Saker
Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision

Hitler Also Was Sentimental — Andrei Martyanov (video, no transcript 24.19)



Hitler Also Was Sentimental
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues. Martyanov was born in Baku, USSR in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. He took part in the events in the Caucasus which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In mid-1990s he moved to the United States where he currently works as Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group. He is a frequent blogger on the US Naval Institute Blog. He is author of Losing Military Supremacy, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs, and Disintegration: Indicators of the Coming American Collapse — Clarity Press
https://youtu.be/vWZSiDnxI-g

The Military Situation In The Ukraine — Jacques Baud

If you haven't read this article yet, here is reminder. Although a month old, it is still relevant. Like Virginia state senator and retired US Marine Corps colonel Richard Black, retired US Army colonel Douglas Macgregor, and retired US Army colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, his credentials are impeccable. They are unanimous in calling BS.

The Postil Magazine (April 1, 2022)
The Military Situation In The Ukraine
Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.
https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

The Long COVID Road Ahead Stephanie Kelton

We don't know what we don't know, but we are learning. And what we're learning is pretty alarming.
What my physician said. It will take long-term studies until we really understand this. By then, there will likely be more. This comes with costs, real and financial. The price tag globally is already in the trillions and the real costs in terms of resources, human resources in particular, have not yet been inventoried. So far, the emphasis has been on deaths. But that is only part of it.

Then, there is climate change.

Meanwhile, the world is caught up in endless war which is also running in the trillions in financial costs. and real losses, including lost opportunity.

We (humanity) are not coping with this well. The future is cloudy at least, if not stormy. All these are interconnected and influence each other in the world system. Now we are looking at them separately. That doesn't bode well for the future. This is what should be occupying attention about leaving the grandkids instead of the national debt foolishness.

The Lens
The Long COVID Road Ahead
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/the-long-covid-road-ahead

See also 

The Sanders Institute
https://sandersinstitute.org/fellows/dr-stephanie-kelton/

Links — 30 Apr 2022 Part 2

Moon of Alabama
Media Are Now Whitewashing Nazis They Had Previously Condemned
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/azovreplist.html

The Vineyard of the Saker
Zaur – Military serviceman of Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov’s Regiment
Translated and subtitled by Leo V. April 25, 2022 
http://thesaker.is/chechen-soldier-in-mariupol-recalls-moment-where-he-saw-azov-battalions-true-face/

The International Schiller Institute (Helga Zepp-LaRouche is the founder and president)
Video: Col. Richard Black — U.S. Leading World to Nuclear War (transcript) (You don't get more American that Richard Black and he offers a devastating criticism of current foreign and military policy.)
Interview of Richard ("Dick") Black, Col. USMC (retired), former GOP state senator for Virginia
https://schillerinstitute.com/blog/2022/04/26/video-col-richard-black-u-s-leading-world-to-nuclear-war/

Jonathan Turley
The Sweet Sound of Censorship: The Biden Administration Seeks the Perfect Pitch for Disinformation Governance
Jonathan Turley | Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/04/29/the-sweet-sound-of-censorship-the-biden-administration-seeks-the-perfect-pitch-for-disinformation-governance/

Southfront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
FAKE: Russian Warship Blown Up Near Odessa Turned Out To Be US Frigate (sunk in an exercise)
https://southfront.org/fake-russian-warship-blown-up-near-odessa-turned-out-to-be-us-frigate/

Russian Army Continues To Capture Western-Made Anti-Tank Weapons (Photos)
https://southfront.org/russian-army-continues-to-capture-western-made-anti-tank-weapons-photos/

Ukraine, Romania, Moldova … vs. Transnistria: A WW III Scenario. (dangers of escalation. The backstory is that countries are now contesting historical boundaries, i.e., revanchism)
Brett Redmayne-Titley
https://southfront.org/ukraine-romania-moldova-vs-transnistria-a-ww-iii-scenario/

Another Attempt To Evacuate Civilians From Azovstal. UN & Red Cross Involved In Negotiations
https://southfront.org/another-attempt-to-evacuate-civilians-from-azovstal-un-red-cross-involved-in-negotiations/

Defend Democracy Press
Washington Uninterested in Peace in Ukraine – Chinese Spox
http://www.defenddemocracy.press/washington-uninterested-in-peace-in-ukraine-chinese-spox/

Georgia and Moldova to be next hot spots – British Foreign Office (escalation)
http://www.defenddemocracy.press/georgia-and-moldova-to-be-next-hot-spots-british-foreign-office/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Indian Economy Needs at Least 12 Years to Recover From Pandemic: Central Bank Report
https://sputniknews.com/20220430/indian-economy-needs-at-least-12-years-to-recover-from-pandemic-central-bank-report-1095164545.html

Kim Jong-un: North Korea Has to Preventively Deter Enemy Nuclear Threat
https://sputniknews.com/20220430/kim-jong-un-north-korea-has-to-preventively-deter-enemy-nuclear-threat-1095161774.html

Most US Twitter Users Aren't as Staunch Free Speech Champions as Elon Musk Imagined, Poll Shows
https://sputniknews.com/20220430/most-us-twitter-users-arent-as-staunch-free-speech-champions-as-elon-musk-imagined-poll-shows-1095169754.html

AlterNet
Is the U.S. in a proxy war with Russia? Sergey Lavrov and Lloyd Austin seem to think so
Lucian K. Truscott IV
https://www.alternet.org/2022/04/russia-proxy-war/


Links — Apr 30 2022 Part 1

A Son of the New American Revolution
Neo-Nazis Fighting For Ukraine are Real And Other Updates
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-are-real-and-other-updates/

Reminiscence of the Future
My Good Polish Friend Mike Krupa Sent Me...
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/my-good-polish-friend-mike-krupa-sent-me.html

The Vineyard of the Saker
Ukraine war update with Pepe Escobar and Richard Medhurst (video, no transcript 1.34.52)
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-war-update-with-pepe-escobar-and-richard-medhurst/

Can NATO Re-Arm Ukraine?
James Tweedie for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/can-nato-re-arm-ukraine/

The Cradle
Why Europe cannot understand Russia
Pepe Escobar
https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/9733

The Libertarian Institute
UK Wants ‘Global NATO’ Capable of Defending Pacific
Kyle Anzalone and Will Porter
https://libertarianinstitute.org/news-roundup/uk-wants-global-nato-capable-of-defending-pacific/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Oh God It’s Going To Get SO Much Worse
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/04/30/oh-god-its-going-to-get-so-much-worse/

Jonathan Turley
“Trust Me, I’m [Now] The Government”: Jankowicz Pledges to Protect Free Speech Rights
Jonathan Turley | Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/04/30/trust-me-im-now-the-government-jankowicz-pledges-to-protect-free-speech-rights-that-she-long-dissed-and-dismissed/

Bank Capital at 1 year low

 

Fed interest rate policy reducing prices of banking system HQLA to a new 1 year low…  hence bank capital (A-L) is being degraded as liabilities remain constant…. equity index prices back to same levels in consonance as the sum of all asset values are regulated as a fixed multiple of bank capital …




Fed rate policy is working to reduce prices of bonds and equities and other financial assets… 


Friday, April 29, 2022

Links — 29 Apr 2022 Part 2

The Vineyard of the Saker
Empire of Lies Eager to Receive Mr. Sarmat’s Business Card
Pepe Escobar
http://thesaker.is/empire-of-lies-eager-to-receive-mr-sarmats-business-card/

Michael Hudson, Katie Halper and Aaron Maté (video, transcript coming — this is linked to in a separate post with no transcript)
Sociopath Neocons Sacrifice Ukrainians and Global Poor – Economist Michael Hudson
Useful Idiots
http://thesaker.is/michael-hudson-katie-halper-and-aaron-mate/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
No, This Is Not a Parody: Watch Unearthed TikTok Video of Biden’s New Head of Disinformation Bureau [Nina Jankowicz]
https://sputniknews.com/20220429/no-this-is-not-a-parody-watch-unearthed-tiktok-video-of-bidens-new-head-of-disinformation-bureau-1095155884.html

Mint Press News
The NATO to TikTok Pipeline: Why is TikTok Employing So Many National Security Agents?
Alan Macleod
https://www.mintpressnews.com/nato-tiktok-pipeline-why-tiktok-employing-national-security-agents/280336/

Defense One
The Backlash to DHS's Anti-Disinformation Board Shows How US Law Is Falling Behind the Problem ("falling behind" or unclear?)
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/04/backlash-dhss-anti-disinformation-board-shows-how-us-law-falling-behind-problem/366345/

AntiWar
Pentagon Official Says US Sees No Threat of Russia Using Nuclear Weapons
Dave DeCamp
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/29/pentagon-official-says-us-sees-no-threat-of-russia-using-nuclear-weapons/

The Silkworth Post
The West Misled the Public on Russia’s War Strategy, and the Results Are Starting to show in Donbass






Sociopath Neocons Sacrifice Ukrainians and Global Poor – Katie Halper and Aaron Maté interview Michael Hudson (video, no transcript 53.32)

 


Michael Hudson starts at 23:40

Sociopath Neocons Sacrifice Ukrainians and Global Poor – Economist Michael Hudson
Useful Idiots (Katie Halper and Aaron Maté ) interview Michael Hudson
https://youtu.be/OdlGDSnCqz0

See also

Sanctions - The Blowback (video 27.57)
Renegade, Inc. internview Michael Hudson (Apr 7, 2022)
https://youtu.be/9t66zZwR0cA

Ukraine and the Doomsday Machine – Larry Wilkerson and Paul Jay

Video, audio, and transcript.

Too much focus on "Putin" in my view, but Wilkerson is always interesting to listen to. This is mostly about use of nukes.

theanalysis.com
Ukraine and the Doomsday Machine – Larry Wilkerson and Paul Jay

No, MMT Didn't Wreck Sri Lanka — Stephanie Kelton

Debunking Bloomberg with Fadhel Kaboub
The Lens
No, MMT Didn't Wreck Sri Lanka
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/no-mmt-didnt-wreck-sri-lanka

Links — 29 Apr 2022 Part 1

The Vineyard of the Saker
Open thread for today and a few notes (the notes are of interest)
Amarynth
http://thesaker.is/open-thread-for-today-and-a-few-notes/

Svetlana Picta interviews Yriy Podolyaka about Transnistria Conflict (video, English subtitles by The Saker translation team 14.23)
http://thesaker.is/svetlana-picta-interviews-yriy-podolyaka-about-transnistria-conflict/

Anatoliy Shariy – Embargo Failure video, English subtitles by The Saker translation team 14.14)
http://thesaker.is/anatoliy-shariy-embargo-failure/
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/ukraine-doubling-down.html

https://dorseteye.com/ukraine-a-beginners-guide/

Armstrong Economics
The Insanity of Stupid People in Power Pushing for War – Rejecting Peace (cycles)
Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/the-insanity-of-stupid-people-in-power-pushing-for-war-rejecting-peace/

Southfront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Preparation Of Military Operation By NATO Countries And Ukraine Against Transnistria
https://southfront.org/transnistria29042022/

MEE
China's defence minister visits Oman as Beijing eyes foothold in Arabian Sea
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/oman-china-defence-minister-visit-bolster-strategic-military-cooperation

The Grayzone
The real Zelensky: from celebrity populist to unpopular Pinochet-style neoliberalTASS (Russian state media)
Natylie Baldwin interviews academic Olga Baysha
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/28/zelensky-celebrity-populist-pinochet-neoliberal/

Bank of Russia lowers key rate by 3 percentage points to 14% per annum
https://tass.com/economy/1445359

Conflict in Ukraine essentially between Russia, US, China’s Foreign Ministry says
https://tass.com/world/1445297

US aims to prolong military action in Ukraine to weaken Russia — China’s Foreign Ministry
https://tass.com/world/1445247

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
US Navy chief issues new China warning
https://www.rt.com/news/554702-us-navy-china-challenge/

Oilprice
Poland Threatens To Seize Russian Pipelines
Charles Kennedy
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Poland-Threatens-To-Seize-Russian-Pipelines.html

The Dreizen Report
Here comes the second front
Jacob Dreizen
https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/04/29/here-comes-the-second-front/

ECNS (Chinese official English news service)
China slams U.S. meddling around globe
http://www.ecns.cn/news/2022-04-29/detail-ihaxwerf5650404.shtml


UK Food Security: A Fork In The Road — Ross Ashcroft intervews agricultural analyst Michael Raw

Britain’s MI5 has always maintained that the UK is just four meals from anarchy. So with fractured supply chains, rising costs and failing agricultural policy, how worried should the Brits, who are net importers of food, be about our national food security?

Host, Ross Ashcroft, met up with Agricultural analyst, Michael Raw to discuss....
Renegade, Inc.
UK Food Security: A Fork In The Road
Ross Ashcroft intervews agricultural analyst Michael Raw

Gas Flares: Europe Has a Hissy, Flails About as Russia Imposes Gas Payment Countersanctions and Economies Already Feel Blowback Bite — Yves Smith

 Title should be "Gas Pains"?

Naked Capitalism
Gas Flares: Europe Has a Hissy, Flails About as Russia Imposes Gas Payment Countersanctions and Economies Already Feel Blowback Bite
Yves Smith
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/gas-flares-europe-has-a-hissy-flails-about-as-russia-imposes-gas-payment-countersanctions-and-economies-already-feel-blowback-bite.html

Opinion: There’s a big hole in the Fed’s theory of inflation—incomes are falling at a record 10.9% rate — Rex Nutting

As [MMT] economists Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray of the nonpartisan Levy Economics Institute of Bard College conclude in a paper published this month ahead of the GDP report: “Most of the government’s income support has already disappeared, so going forward it is not an important contributor to demand in the economy.”

The faucet has been turned off. Without all the extra money from Uncle Sam, U.S. households will have to live within their means once again. Demand will slow, and so too will inflation, according to the ironclad economic laws of supply and demand....
If consumer demand—fueled by free money from Washington—has overheated the economy, then our inflation problem is solved even before the Fed really gets going. “There is no excess income left to drive the economy beyond capacity,” say Nersisyan and Wray...
What's the problem, then? Supply contraction for a variety of reason. Thus, the solution is to address supply issues in this situation rather than supposed excess demand.
The prospect for stagflation—low growth with high inflation—is real. “The appropriate solution to inflation would be to work to alleviate supply-side constraints,” say Nersisyan and Wray. To do that, unfortunately, “we need more domestic investment, not less.”
These are only the MMT-related snippets. The whole article is worth reading. Some analysts are showing more sophistication than knee-jerk monetarism.

Market Watch
Opinion: There’s a big hole in the Fed’s theory of inflation—incomes are falling at a record 10.9% rate
Rex Nutting
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-big-hole-in-the-feds-theory-of-inflationincomes-are-falling-at-a-record-10-9-rate-11651165705?mod=home-page

Banking Debate Woes: Part III — Brian Romanchuk

This article finishes off a sequence of articles on an ancient debate in economics: what limits bank lending? (Links to Part I, Part II.) My argument is that the usual ways of looking at this question are highly misleading. The mainstream Economics 101 description of banking is hopeless — and then heterodox critics got bogged down in attacking a hopeless description of banking. The key to understanding banking is that they are a financial firm that borrows to invest in assets (a “levered financial entity”) — and they have some similarities to other financial firms, albeit that they have some special privileges....
Bond Economics
Banking Debate Woes: Part III
Brian Romanchuk

Thursday, April 28, 2022

Links — 28 APR 2022 Part 3

A Son of the New American Revolution
Russia Unable To Fight Another War After Catastrophic Military Losses?
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/russia-unable-to-fight-another-war-after-catastrophic-military-losses/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
PayPal Blocks Multiple Alternative Media Figures Critical Of US Empire Narratives
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/04/29/paypal-blocks-multiple-alternative-media-figures-critical-of-us-empire-narratives/ 

Common Dreams
'Staggering': Watchdog Finds Medicare Advantage Plans Deny Necessary Care
Jessica Corbett
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/28/staggering-watchdog-finds-medicare-advantage-plans-deny-necessary-care

The Last Refuge
Biden Malfunctions
Sundance
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=biden-malfunctions

Links — 28 Apr 2022 Part 2

The Vineyard of the Saker
Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-16/

Reminiscence of the Future
Me Diving Into History.
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/me-diving-into-history.html

Russian and Eurasian Politics
Putin’s War Decision and its Consequences
Gordon M. Hahn | Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group
https://gordonhahn.com/2022/04/28/putins-war-decision-and-its-consequences/

Behind the Curtain
It’s About Time
Edward Curtin
http://edwardcurtin.com/its-about-time/

Fortune
Edward Snowden says he’s the mystery man involved in the creation of leading privacy cryptocurrency Zcash
Taylor Locke
https://fortune.com/2022/04/28/edward-snowden-crypto-zcash/

The Last Refuge
Madness, Joe Biden Asks Congress for $33 Billion More for Ukraine to Fund Their Government Salaries, Pensions and Budget Obligations (well, not "taxpayer-funded, but that's funding that isn't going to further either public purpose or national security.)
Sundance
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/madness-joe-biden-asks-congress-for-33-billion-more-for-ukraine-to-fund-their-government-salaries-pensions-and-budget-obligations/

Internationalist 360º
NATO’s Fascist History
Tim Anderson | Director of the Sydney-based Centre for Counter Hegemonic Studies
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/04/28/natos-fascist-history/








Links — 28 Apr 2022 Part 1

Gilbert Doctorow — International relations, Russian affairs
Russian media today, 28 April 2022 ("the head of Russian External Intelligence (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, has spoken out about Poland’s plans to take control of part of the territory of Ukraine")
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/28/russian-media-today-28-april-2022/

A Son of the New American Revolution
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” (Important because Russians have a completely different view of history that the West, especially the US and UK, and the Russian view is closer to the facts. As a result, Russia accuses the West of falsifying history to magnify themselves. This leads to erroneous assumptions in the West about what Russians think and how they will act.)
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/those-who-cannot-remember-the-past-are-condemned-to-repeat-it/

Asia Times
Huawei defeats US chip ban to post record profits ("The Chinese tech giant’s results demonstrate the limitations of US sanctions")
Robert Lewis

One World
Korybko’s Response To Shashi Tharoor: India’s Principled Neutrality Serves Its Interests
Andrew Korybko
https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2798

Oilprice
Exxon Declares Force Majeure On Sakhalin-1
Irina Slav
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Declares-Force-Majeure-On-Sakhalin-1.html

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Rupee-Ruble Trade Must Be Encouraged to Ease Doing Business: Indian Traders' Body
https://sputniknews.com/20220428/rupee-ruble-trade-must-be-encouraged-to-ease-doing-business-indian-traders-body-1095122350.html















Bill Mitchell — The Covid trade-off between health and the economy did not exist

With yesterday’s detail CPI analysis, I am transferring the news/music blog post that normally appears on a Wednesday to today. This morning, I read the newly published report from the UK-based – Institute for Public Policy Research – Health and prosperity: Introducing the Commission on Health and Prosperity (released April 27, 2022) – which provides a sobering (to say the least) evidence base for how the pandemic has impacted on Britain’s health system and labour market. As more evidence comes out from the experience of the last 2.4 years, I wonder when those who demanded nations learn to live with the virus – by basically denying its existence – will reflect on the folly of their laissez-faire positions....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The Covid trade-off between health and the economy did not exist
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Links — 27 Apr 2022 Part 2

India Punchline
Putin warns the US to back off in Ukraine
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/putin-warns-the-us-to-back-off-in-ukraine/

Naked Capitalism
Jaishankar Calls Out Europe’s Selective Concern on Rules-Based Order
Jerri-Lynn Scofield
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/jaishankar-calls-out-european-selective-concern-on-rules-based-order.html

Consortium News
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/27/patrick-lawrence-ukraine-the-strength-of-nonalignment/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Siding With The US Empire Is Always Wrong: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/04/28/siding-with-the-us-empire-is-always-wrong-notes-from-the-edge-of-the-narrative-matrix/

Zero Hedge
US Intel Helped Ukraine Shoot Down Russian Plane Carrying "Hundreds" Of Paratroopers
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-intel-helped-ukraine-shoot-down-russian-plane-carrying-hundreds-paratroopers

DHS Creating 'Disinformation Governance Board' Ahead Of Midterms (hopefully the ACLU is on this)
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dhs-creating-disinformation-governance-board-ahead-midterms

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
Biden administration unveils ‘Disinformation Governance Board’
https://www.rt.com/news/554642-biden-creates-anti-disinfo-board/

Iran defines relations with China
https://www.rt.com/news/554636-iran-china-defense-visit/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Iran, China Agree on Expanding Military Cooperation
https://sputniknews.com/20220427/iran-china-agree-on-expanding-military-cooperation-1095110887.html

Nina Jankowicz Confirms Will Head New US Disinformation Governance Board at DHS (A "DC-based writer and analyst,she is currently a "global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars’ Kennan Institute, where she studies Russian disinformation and the democratic challenges of the technology age." She served as Fulbright-Clinton Public Policy Fellow in Ukraine in 2016-2017.)
https://sputniknews.com/20220427/nina-jankowicz-confirms-will-head-new-us-disinformation-governance-board-at-dhs-1095113401.html

Oilprice
Germany Prepares To Expropriate Russian-Run Refinery
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Germany-Prepares-To-Expropriate-Russian-Run-Refinery.html

Politico
Britain's foreign secretary: NATO should protect Taiwan (Liz Truss is clueless about military matters.)
Cristina Gallardo is a POLITICO EU reporter (clueless about military matters.)

China will be poster child for developing countries MMT — Richard Mills

Well, not exactly MMT-compliant, but close enough to be interesting. The basic idea, currency sovereignty, is OK. This means that a country that is sovereign in its currency doesn't need to obtain it because it issues it.

US on brink of recklessness in Ukraine — Stephen Bryen

Stephen Bryen is a neoconservative whose mentor was Richard Perle. A hawk, he is an unlikely person to be warning about developments, but he is also a realist. He is also an insider and speaks from experience in and knowledge of the US foreign policy and military apparatus from the POV of the right. He is looking at the unfolding situation from the point of view of a foreign policy realist rather than a foreign policy idealist. The is where neoconservatism meets in US politics. At this junction there are neoconservatives that tend to ward realism, generally Republicans, and neoconservatives that advocate for foreign policy idealism, generally Democrats.

Asia Times
US on brink of recklessness in Ukraine
Stephen Bryen | Senior Fellow at the American Center for Democracy, the Center for Security Policy. He has served as a senior staff director of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as the Executive Director of a grassroots political organization, as the head of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, as the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Trade Security Policy, and as the founder and first director of the Defense Technology Security Administration. He is the author of Technology Security and National Power: Winners and Losers, and of three volumes of Essays in Technology, Security and Strategy. Dr. Bryen was twice awarded the Defense Department’s highest civilian honor, the Distinguished Service Medal.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/us-on-brink-of-recklessness-in-ukraine/

See also

Westminster Institute (4 Fed 2022)
Russia and Ukraine: What’s Next? (Video and transcript)
Stephen Bryen
https://westminster-institute.org/events/russia-and-ukraine-whats-next/

Also

Responsible Statecraft
The horrible dangers of pushing a US proxy war in Ukraine
Anatol Lieven, Senior Research Fellow on Russia and Europe at Quincy Institute
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/04/27/the-horrible-dangers-in-pushing-a-us-proxy-war-in-ukraine/

Related

Meanwhile, economist Peter Dorman offers a typically American solution for the Ukrainian situation, bribe Russian soldiers to defect.

Econospeak
In Ukraine, Use the Weapon the Russians Can’t Match
Peter Dorman | Professor of Political Economy, The Evergreen State College
http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2022/04/in-ukraine-use-weapon-russians-cant.html












Links — 27 Apr 2022 Part 1

Gilbert Doctorow — International relations, Russian affairs
Russian Media Today, 26 April 2022
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/27/russian-media-today-26-april-2022/

A Son of the New American Revolution
Russia Ratchets Up the Pressure
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/russia-ratchets-up-the-pressure/

Moon of Alabama
Politico: "Germany approves tank sales to Ukraine, bowing to pressure"
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/politico-germany-approves-tank-sales-to-ukraine-bowing-to-pressure.html

The Vineyard of the Saker
President Putin and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres: Meeting
http://thesaker.is/president-putin-and-un-secretary-general-antonio-guterres-meeting/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Putin Vows Swift Response If Anyone Intervenes in Ukraine, Posing a Strategic Threat to Russia
https://sputniknews.com/20220427/putin-vows-swift-retaliatory-strikes-in-case-of-foreign-threats-or-intervention-in-ukraine-1095102165.html

Russia Opens First Cross-Border Railway Bridge to China
https://sputniknews.com/20220427/russia-opens-first-cross-border-railway-bridge-to-china-1095091121.html

Huawei Spent $22 Billion on Research in 2021 As Company Resists US Sanctions - Report ('The trend marks Huawei's relentless efforts to develop chips, network equipment, and even smartphones without the use of American technology, unavailable since the 2019 sanctions.")
https://sputniknews.com/20220427/huawei-spent-22-billion-on-research-in-2021-as-company-resists-us-sanctions---report-1095087131.html

TASS (Russian state media)
Attempts to interfere in situation in Ukraine to be met with instant response — Putin
https://tass.com/politics/1444327
https://tass.com/society/1443755

Oilprice
Four Buyers In Europe Have Paid In Rubles For Russia’s Gas
Tsvetana Paraskova
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Four-Buyers-In-Europe-Have-Paid-In-Rubles-For-Russias-Gas.html

Southfront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
U.S. Strategy To Change Architecture Of Global Oil & Gas Market
https://southfront.org/u-s-strategy-to-change-architecture-of-global-oil-gas-market/

Mosler Economics/Modern Monetary Theory
Europe’s debtors must pawn their gold for Eurobond Redemption
Warren Mosler
http://moslereconomics.com/2022/04/27/europes-debtors-must-pawn-their-gold-for-eurobond-redemption/

Michael Roberts Blog — blogging from a marxist economist
Has globalisation ended?
Michael Roberts
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2022/04/27/has-globalisation-ended/
Yu Yongding | former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-freeze-russian-reserves-what-it-means-for-china-by-yu-yongding-2022-04

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
China issues ‘color revolution’ warning
https://www.rt.com/news/554584-china-color-revolution-kazakhstan/

Zero Hedge
US Army To Test "Largest Drone Swarm Ever" In Utah Desert
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-army-test-largest-drone-swarm-ever-utah-desert

Putin Warns Of "Quick Response" If West Intervenes In Ukraine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-warns-quick-response-if-west-intervenes-ukraine

Modern Diplomacy
Ukraine: Another Ghouta for the White Helmets (Bellingcat - fronting for MI6?)
by Ahmad Salah
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/04/27/ukraine-another-ghouta-for-the-white-helmets/
































Peterborough letter: Canadian ‘debt’ propaganda is based on myth — Herb Wiseman

MMT. Short.

The Peterborough Examiner — Opinion
Peterborough letter: Canadian ‘debt’ propaganda is based on myth
Herb Wiseman, Village Crescent
https://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editors/2022/04/27/canadian-debt-propaganda-is-based-on-myth.html

Bill Mitchell — Australia–inflation rises but with no wage pressures evident there is no case for interest rate rises

The Tweets have started already demanding an interest rate rise in May at the next RBA Board meeting. Bankers, media commentators who just are conduits for the bankers – all with vested interests. Today’s data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Consumer Price Index, Australia (April 27, 2022) – has fuelled their mania. Inflation in the March-quarter 2022 rose to 2.1 per cent (5.1 per cent for the 12 months) on the back of rising automotive fuel costs (uncompetitive cartel and deliberate government petrol tax policies), global supply chain disruptions (pandemic) and material shortages (supply chain and bushfires). As long as these influences are present, inflation will remain at elevated levels. But with wage pressures absent, it is hard to make a case that the rising inflation is now entrenched. Certainly, the long-term expectations measures would not suggest that. I cannot see why the RBA will hike rates in May. More evidence of wage pressures would be needed one suspects.…

There is no two-variable functional relationship between the interest rate and the inflation rate. Inflation has multiple causes, so a simple solution is, well, simplistic. Addressing the issue requires analyzing the causality involved. 

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Australia – inflation rises but with no wage pressures evident there is no case for interest rate rises
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Links — 26 Apr 2022

The Vineyard of the Saker
Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-15/

Short message from the Saker
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/short-message-from-the-saker-4/

The Ukraine and the End of the History (a Russian worldview)
Batiushka for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/the-ukraine-and-the-end-of-the-history/

Moon of Alabama
A Recap Of The War In Ukraine - by Gonzalo Lira
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/a-recap-of-the-war-in-ukraine-by-gonzalo-lira.html

Reminiscence of the Future
LOL. Why Not 1.5 million. (Martyanov trashes the British defense establishment)
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/lol-why-not-15-million.html

Southfront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Lloyd Ostin [Austin] Declares US Real Goal To Defeat Russia On Battlefield – CNN (the US narrative has shifted in the last couple of weeks to regime change in Russia and Russian military defeat)
https://southfront.org/lloyd-ostin-declares-us-real-goal-to-defeat-russia-on-battlefield-cnn/

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
US will move ‘heaven and earth’ to back Ukraine – Pentagon (open-ended escalation. This is fast becoming a zero-sum game between the US and Russia, nuclear-armed states. Have they thought this through?)
https://www.rt.com/news/554567-austin-promises-heaven-earth-ukraine/

The Cradle
Aux armes, citoyens: dissecting the stage-managed French elections (France headed for increasing unrest?)
Pepe Escobar
https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/9561

Deutsche Welle
Russian demand for ruble gas payments causes first shutdowns in Poland, Bulgaria
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-demand-for-ruble-gas-payments-causes-first-shutdowns-in-poland-bulgaria/a-61602038?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

Geopolitika.ru (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
THE NWO IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORIES  (A Russian worldview)
Alexander Dugin
https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/nwo-context-international-relations-theories

Matt Taibbi
A Brief Note on the "Gentlemen's Agreement", Which is Not Just for Defense Lobbyists ("defense is only the most conspicuous example of the phenomenon in which TV news programs identify guests by illustrious past official titles, and not by their current lobbying ties or positions on corporate boards. This happens in most every industry, from health care to big Pharma to energy to Big Tech and beyond.")
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-brief-note-on-the-gentlemens-agreement

Zero Hedge
Where Are Russia's Gold Reserves Actually Stored? (sort of interesting with lots of nice pics but the actual location(s) of Russia's gold is a state secret.)
Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-are-russias-gold-reserves-actually-stored

Counterpunch
Utopian Visions as Engines for Change
Patrick Mazza
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/04/26/utopian-visions-as-engines-for-change/

Q and A session off the cuff. Andrei Martyanov (video, no transcript 35.26)

 


Q and A session off the cuff.
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues. Martyanov was born in Baku, USSR in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. He took part in the events in the Caucasus which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In mid-1990s he moved to the United States where he currently works as Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group. He is a frequent blogger on the US Naval Institute Blog. He is author of Losing Military Supremacy, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs, and Disintegration: Indicators of the Coming American Collapse — Clarity Press
https://youtu.be/3ZjgX43a12U

Vladimir Putin is Crazy? — Larry C. Johnson

This brings up the issue of worldview and interpretation of perception as information ("reality," "the facts"). Everyone's experience is shaped by subjective factors. One such factor is one's worldview, which is based on cultural and individual factors and circumstances.

Thus, it is possible to speak of particular national points of view, religious points of view, political points of view, class-based points of view, etc., and how these different categories intersect in particular individuals and groups. 

The result is that those sharing similar points of view live in a shared "reality" shaped by many factors but foundationally by the commonality of worldview. This constitutes their universe of discourse. It is how they see things and construct "the facts" based on interpretation that is largely subjective. In terms of "the news," this interpretation or point of view constitutes "the narrative."

Those who do not share in this commonality are considered in relation to the common worldview. So, if there is fundamental disagreement, the outside group is thought to be lying about reality, is ignorant, or is even crazy. This applies to members of the outside group, too. This is now proliferating not only about leaders such as Putin and Xi, but also about the Russians and Chinese as peoples. It is immature, ignorant, and arrogant, and it is leading to dangerous xenophobia and demonization. It is especially dangerous since the parties are nuclear-armed.

For example, initially the American focus was on Putin. He is evil ("Putler"). He is "crazy." Along with this was the notion that the Russian people were basically good and sane and were just waiting for the opportunity to overthrow the dictator to free themselves from oppression. But then, after the invasion, polling showed that the Russian people were overwhelmingly supportive of the leadership. Then the American perception became that Russians are evil, subhuman, crazy, etc.

Rather, "reality" is shaped not only on perception, but reports of others perception, and also by subjective factors that are shared, like a worldview, and also individual idiosyncrasies. Each of us lives in a different reality of our own construction and we tend to agree with and associate with those similarly inclined.

So, are there "alternative facts"? Yes. How can they be assessed "objectively"? Humans have devised ways of dealing with with such issues. For example, science is based on a naturalistic assumption designed to reduce subjectivity, but "science" is not fool-prove either. In the final analysis, absolute objectivity in anything other than the trivial lies beyond human grasp. This is part of "the human condition."
 
A Son of the New American Revolution
Vladimir Putin is Crazy?
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/vladimir-putin-is-crazy/

Related

This following post illustrates the point. Andrew Goodman's take on Vladimir Putin is well-informed, presents the facts as he saw them from his point of view, and provides his assessment of Putin and what he is likely to do with respect to Ukraine. The account is from the American point of view and is illustrates how a worldview shapes one's perception of reality and "the facts." Since Goodman is long-serving veteran of the US diplomatic corps, it is reasonable to conclude that this at least close to the lines along which current thinking in the State Department runs. 

How accurate a picture is this "objectively"? The problem in answering this is that no one is able to stand completely outside one's worldview, which is shaped by one's native language and culture, education, life experience in accord with one's constitutional disposition and character (and one's karmic baggage from the Eastern and Western esoteric points of view).

The interpretation says as much about how Goodman thinks as about Vladimir Putin. If one reads around, one can find a range of opinion on this, presenting very different pictures of the man based on different points of view that have been shaped by many factors and which is necessarily embedded in a worldview.

War on the Rocks
Putin the Planner
Andrew Goodman, retired from the Senior Foreign Service in 2009 after over 30 years mostly devoted to dealing with the USSR and Russia. He has taught courses on Russian foreign policy at Columbia University, the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Mary Washington University.
http://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/

Monday, April 25, 2022

Links — 25 Apr 2022 Part 2

Gilbert Doctorow — International relations, Russian affairs
Russian media today, 25 April 2022
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/25/russian-media-today-25-april-2022/

Consortium News
Joe Lauria
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/25/us-makes-it-clear-its-aim-is-to-weaken-russia/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Biden Admin. Rolls Out ‘Whole-of-Government’ Drone Plan, Admits There’s No Actual ‘Specific Threats’
https://sputniknews.com/20220426/biden-admin-rolls-out-whole-of-government-drone-plan-admits-theres-no-actual-specific-threats-1095055044.html

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
CIA may help battle ‘hostile’ drones on US soil
https://www.rt.com/news/554514-cia-nasa-threatening-drones/


Links — 25 Apr 2022 Part 1

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Moskva Riddle (If you could not access this post at SCF, try this link.)
Pepe Escobar
http://thesaker.is/the-moskva-riddle/

Reminiscence of the Future
It Is Becoming A Sports Of Sort (Larry Johnson). (The Larry Johnson post was linked to here at MNE yesterday. Most Western military analysts stating their views publicly still seem to be deceived by the initial Russian feint toward Kiev that masked the real objective, Mariupol, which has fallen. Probably the ones that know, other than a few brave enough to say, Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter, for example, are afraid to say owing to total narrative control. Several prominent bloggers, Paul Robinson and Patrick Armstrong, for instance, dropped out stating this reason. Plus a short Eva Bartlett on-site video debunking the "mass graves" disinformation  in Mariupol at the end of the post.)
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/it-is-becoming-sports-of-sort-larry.html

Here Is Russia's Investigative Committee's Video...
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/here-is-russias-investigative.html
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.

India Punchline
US recruits Israel against Russia (juggling with knives)
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-recruits-israel-against-russia/

RT (Russian state-sponsored media)
UK reveals new ‘gift’ for Ukraine (armored vehicles equipped with anti-air missiles)
https://www.rt.com/news/554494-uk-stormer-vehicles-ukraine/

Internatinalist 360º
SOUTHCOM General Admits Goal to Target Russia and China Worldwide (WIII on?)
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/04/25/southcom-general-admits-goal-to-target-russia-and-china-worldwide/

Eva Bartlett Reports from Mariupol: “Ukraine Forces Used Scorched Earth Tactics”
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/04/25/eva-bartlett-reports-from-mariupol-ukraine-forces-used-scorched-earth-tactics/

Covert Action Magazine
Jeremy Kuzmarov
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/04/25/cia-behind-secret-plots-to-kidnap-torture-and-assassinate-ukrainian-dissidents-for-president-zelensky-says-ukraine-defector/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Series of Explosions Rock Transnistria's Ministry of State Security Building: Correspondent (conflict in Europe spreading?)
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/series-of-explosions-rock-transnistrias-ministry-of-state-security-correspondent-1095043993.html

Sputnik's Chief [Margarita Simonyan] Was on Neo-Nazi Kill List, Suspects Took Orders From Ukraine’s Security Service: FSB
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/neo-nazis-plotting-to-assassinate-solovyev-also-planned-to-kill-sputnik-editor-in-chief-others-fsb-1095042255.html

Putin: Russia Knows Names of CIA Curators Advising Neo-Nazis to Assassinate Russian Journalists
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/putin-russia-knows-names-of-cia-curators-advising-ukrainian-neo-nazis-to-carry-out-crimes-1095034268.html

Indian Brands Have Huge Opportunity in Russia, Entrepreneur Susil Dungarwal Says
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/indian-brands-have-huge-opportunity-in-russia-entrepreneur-susil-dungarwal-says-1094958802.html

Russia’s S-500 Missile System Enters Mass Production
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/russias-s-500-missile-system-enters-mass-production-1095034431.html

Top Iranian General Claims US-Affiliated Terrorists Behind Recent Bomb Blasts in Afghanistan
https://sputniknews.com/20220425/top-iranian-general-claims-us-affiliated-terrorists-behind-recent-bomb-blasts-in-afghanistan-1095030930.html

TASS (Russian state media)
Six neo-Nazis preparing to assassinate [Russian] journalist [Vladimir] Solovyov detained (Gilbert Doctorow is often a guest on his show.)
https://tass.com/society/1442735

Russia opens corridor, says up to Kiev to release trapped civilians used as human shields
https://tass.com/world/1442599
https://tass.com/world/1442495

Bracing Views
Edward Snowden and Turnkey Tyranny ("turnkey tyranny" would be the US post 9/11)
W. J. Astore, Lieutenant Colonel (USAF ret.), taught at the Air Force Academy, the Naval Postgraduate School, and currently at the Pennsylvania College of Technology
https://bracingviews.com/2019/10/26/edward-snowden-and-turnkey-tyranny/

Southfront
Bucha Investigation Contradicts Itself, Confirms AFU’s Atrocities (maybe "confirms" is too strong and "questions" would be more apt.)
https://southfront.org/bucha-investigation-contradicts-itself-confirms-afus-atrocities/

In Videos: Civilians From Mariupol Testify To Crimes And Atrocities By Azov Fighters (English Subtitles)
https://southfront.org/in-videos-civilians-from-mariupol-testify-to-crimes-and-atrocities-by-azov-fighters-english-subtitles/

Strategic Culture Foundation (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Alastair Crooke
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/04/25/the-dynamics-of-escalation-standing-with-ukraine/
Russia-China axis possess food, energy, technology and most of the world’s key resources. History teaches that these elements make the winners in wars

As it dawns on the West that whereas sanctions are deemed capable of bringing countries to their knees, the reality is that such capitulation never has occurred (i.e. Cuba; North Korea; Iran). And, in the case of Russia, it is possible to say that just ain’t going to happen.

Team Biden still has not fully grasped the reasons why. One point is that they picked precisely the wrong economy to try to collapse via sanctions (Russia has minimal foreign supply lines and oodles of valuable commodities). Biden’s staffers too, have never comprehended the full ramifications of Putin’s monetary jujitsu linking the rouble to gold, and the rouble to energy.

They condescend to Putin’s monetary jujitsu as yet another forlorn strike versus the dollar’s ‘impregnable’ reserve currency status. So they choose to ignore it, and assume that if only the Europeans would take fewer hot showers, wear more woollen jumpers, forego Russian energy, and ‘stand with Ukraine’, the economic collapse finally would materialise. Hallelujah!

The other reason why the West misconstrues the strategic potential of sanctions is that the Russia-China war on western hegemony is assimilated by its peoples to be an existential one. For them, it is not just about taking fewer hot showers (as for Europeans), it is about their very survival – and consequently their pain threshold is much, much higher than the West’s. The west is not going to smoke their challengers out so ridiculously easily.

At bottom, the Russia-China axis possess food, energy, technology and most of the world’s key resources. History teaches that these elements make the winners in wars.

The strategic problem though, is two-fold: Firstly, the window for a Plan ‘B’ de-escalation via a political deal in Ukraine has passed. It is all or nothing now (unless Washington folds). And secondly, albeit in slightly differing context, both Europe and Team Biden have elected to take the stakes sky-high:

The conviction that the European liberal vision faces humiliation and disdain, were Putin to ‘win’, has taken hold. And in the Obama-Clinton-Deep State nexus, it is unimaginable that Putin and Russia still regarded as the author of Russiagate for many Americans, might prevail.

The logic to this conundrum is inexorable – Escalation.

For Biden, whose approval ratings continue to tank, disaster looms in the November mid-terms. The consensus amongst U.S. insiders is that the Democrats are set to lose 60–80 seats in Congress, and a small handful (4 or 5 seats) in the Senate too. Were this to come about, it would not be just a personal humiliation, but would token administrative paralysis for the Democrats until the notional end of Biden’s term.

The only possible path out from this approaching cataclysm would be for Biden to pull a rabbit from the Ukraine ‘hat’ (one that, at the very least, would distract from soaring inflation). The Neo-cons and the Deep State (but not the Pentagon) are all for it. The arms industry naturally are loving Biden’s laundering weapons into Ukraine (with huge ‘spillage’ somehow vanishing into ‘the black’). Many in DC profit from this well-funded boondoggle.

Why are we seeing such euphoria over such a seemingly reckless scheme of escalation? Well, strategists suggest that were the Republican leadership to go bi-partisan on escalation – become complicit in ‘more war’, as it were – they argue that it might prove possible to stem Democratic losses in the mid-terms and blunt an Opposition campaign assault focussed on a mismanaged economy.

How far might Biden go with this escalation? Well, the arms splurge is a no-brainer (another boondoggle), and Special Forces are already in theatre, poised to light a fuse to any escalation; moreover, the mooted no-fly zone seems to have the added advantage of enjoying European support, particularly in the UK, amongst the Baltics (of course) and from the German ‘Greens’, too. (Spoiler Alert! First, of course, in order to implement any no-fly zone, it would be necessary to control the airspace – which Russia already dominates, and over which it implements full electronic-magnetic exclusion).

Would this be enough? Dark voices are advising not. They want ‘boots on the ground’. They even talk of tactical nukes. They argue that Biden has nothing to lose by ‘going big’, especially if the GOP are persuaded to become accomplices. Indeed, it might just save him from ignominy, they urge. U.S. military insiders already point out that the arms supply will not ‘turn around’ the war. A ‘lost war’ must be avoided going into November at all costs.

Is such a consensus for escalation realistic? Well, yes, it is possible. Recall that Hillary (Clinton) was the alchemist who fused the 1980s Neoconservative wing to the 1990s Neoliberals to create an interventionist broad-tent that could serve all tastes: Europeans could imagine themselves wielding economic power in a globally significant way for the first time, whilst the Neo-cons have resurrected their insistence on forceful military intervention as the requisite to maintaining the rules-based order. The latter are cock-a-hoop that financial war is failing.

From the Neo-cons’ perspective, it puts military action firmly back on the table and with a new ‘front’ opening: The Neo-cons today, precisely are questioning the premise that a nuclear exchange with Russia must be avoided at all costs. And from this shift away from the prohibition on actions that could trigger a nuclear exchanger, they say that circumscribing the Ukraine conflict on such basis is unnecessary and a strategic error – asserting that in their view, Putin would be unlikely to resort to nuclear weapons.

How can this Neo-con-Liberal interventionist élite superstructure wield such influence when the broader American political class historically has been ‘anti-war’? Well, the Neo-cons are the archetypal chameleons. Loved by the war industry, a regular loud presence on the networks, they rotate in and out of power, with the ‘China hawks’ nesting in the Trump corridors, whilst the ‘Russia hawks’ are migrated to populate the Biden State Department.

Is escalation already ‘baked-in’? There may yet be one iconoclastic ‘fly in the ointment’: Mr Trump! – through his symbolic act of endorsing J.D. Vance for the GOP Senate Primary in Ohio, against the wishes of the GOP Establishment.

Vance is one (amongst many) representatives of America’s populist tradition seeking office in the coming Congressional ‘churn’. But the salience here is that Vance has been questioning the rush to escalation in Ukraine. Many other would-be populist contenders among the GOP’s new crop of interesting senators and senators-in-waiting already have succumbed to GOP old-establishment pressure to endorse war. (Boondoggles again).

The GOP is divided on Ukraine at its upper representational level, but the popular base traditionally is sceptical of foreign wars. With this political endorsement, Trump is nudging the GOP towards opposing escalation in Ukraine. Ross Douthat in the NY Times confirms that the Vance endorsement connects more closely to the sources of Trump’s 2016 popularity, as he mined the anti-war sentiment amongst the deplorables, whose focus more is with caring for their own country’s welfare.

Shortly after the endorsement, Trump issued a statement:

“It doesn’t make sense that Russia and Ukraine aren’t sitting down and working out some kind of an agreement. If they don’t do it soon, there will be nothing left but death, destruction, and carnage. This is a war that never should have happened, but it did. The solution can never be as good as it would have been before the shooting started, but there is a solution, and it should be figured out now—not later—when everyone will be DEAD!”, Trump said.

Trump effectively is wedging apart the possible key fault-line for the coming elections (even if some GOP panjandrums – many of whom are funded by the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) – favour a more robust military involvement).

Trump too, always has an instinct for an opponent’s jugular: Biden may be highly attracted to the argument for escalation, but he is known to be sensitive to the thought of body-bags coming home to the U.S. before November becoming his legacy. Hence Trump’s exaggeration that sooner rather than later, everyone in Ukraine “will be DEAD!”.

Again, the fear amongst Democrats with military understanding is that the western weapons airlift to the borders of Ukraine will not change the course of war, and that Russia would prevail, even were NATO to engage. Or, in other words, the ‘unthinkable’ will occur: The West will lose to Russia. They argue that Team Biden has little choice: Better to bet on escalation than to risk losing all with a debacle in Ukraine (particularly after Afghanistan).

The eschew escalation presents such a challenge to the American missionary psyche of global leadership that momentum for it may not be overcome through Biden’s innate caution alone. The Washington Post already is reporting that “the Biden Administration is shrugging off fresh Russian warnings against providing Ukrainian forces with more advanced arms and new training – in what appears to be a calculated risk Moscow won’t escalate the war”.

The EU élites, by contrast, are not just persuaded (Hungary and one faction in Germany, apart) by the logic of escalation, they are frankly intoxicated by it. At the Munich Conference in February, it was as if the EU leaders were intent on out-bidding each other in their enthusiasm for war: Josep Borrell re-confirmed his commitment to a military solution in Ukraine: “Yes, normally wars have been won or lost on the battlefield”, he said upon arrival for a meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, when asked to comment on his previous statement that “this war will be won on the battlefield”.

Their euphoria is centred around the belief that the EU – for the first time – is wielding its economic power in a globally significant way, and, at the same time, enabling and arming a proxy war against Russia (through imagining the EU as a real Carolingian empire, actually winning on the battlefield!).

The euphoria of the EU élites – so completely de-coupled from national identities and local interests, and loyal rather to a cosmopolitan vision in which men and women of consequence network endlessly amongst themselves and bask in their peer approval – is opening deep polarisation within their own societies.

The unease arises among those who do not regard patriotism, or a scepticism towards today’s Russiaphobia, as necessarily ‘gauche’. They are concerned that perception-delimited EU élites, advocating sanctions on Russia and NATO engagement with a nuclear power, will bring disaster to Europe.

The Euro-élites are on a crusade – too highly invested in the emotional charge and euphoria of the Ukraine ‘cause’ to have even considered a Plan ‘B’.

And even if a Plan ‘B’ were to be considered, the EU has less of a reverse-gear than the U.S. The Brussels zeitgeist is set in concrete. Structurally, the EU is incapable of self-reform, or of radically changing course and wider Europe now lacks the ‘vessels’ through which decisive political change can be effected.

Hold onto your hats!

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Links — 24 Apr 2022

The Vineyard of the Saker
Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-14/

Strategic Culture Foundation (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
The Moskva Riddle
Pepe Escobar
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/04/23/the-moskva-riddle/

A Son of the New American Revolution
Russia’s Army is a Paper Tiger?
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/russias-army-is-a-paper-tiger/

MR Online
What is propelling the U.S. into increasing international military aggression?

 John Ross
https://mronline.org/2022/04/24/what-is-propelling-the-u-s-into-increasing-international-military-aggression/

Musk moving on

 

Soap opera for bazillionaires may finally be over….




Saturday, April 23, 2022

Senior Chinese finance official: Modern Monetary Theory exacerbates inequality — Bofei Zheng and Zichen Wang

Reflecting the wide interest of your Pekingnologist and the dire need to bring more quality China content to the English-language part of the world, this is a newsletter that covers a lot of subjects. Today, it is a translation of an article about MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory.

It was published in the beginning of 2022 on 中国金融 China Finance, a bi-weekly magazine under the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank. The author is 陆磊 LU Lei, Deputy Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) since June 2017. Prior to that, Lu served as the head of the Financial Stability Bureau (August 2016 to June 2017) and head of the Research Bureau (March 2014 to August 2016) of the central bank.

There have been numerous discussions on MMT in the English-language press in the recent several years, and it appears to your Pekingnologist that there haven’t been many Chinese voices, so the view from a current senior financial official in the second-largest economy should be a contribution.
Pekingnology (Feb 3)
Senior Chinese finance official: Modern Monetary Theory exacerbates inequality
Bofei Zheng and Zichen Wang
https://pekingnology.substack.com/p/senior-chinese-finance-official-modern?s=r




Nuclear False Flag? Douglas Feith as a symptom — Andrei Martyanov (video, no transcript 26.03)

 


Nuclear False Flag? Douglas Feith as a symptom

General Tommy Franks and Geopolitical Reality
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues. Martyanov was born in Baku, USSR in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. He took part in the events in the Caucasus which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In mid-1990s he moved to the United States where he currently works as Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group. He is a frequent blogger on the US Naval Institute Blog. He is author of Losing Military Supremacy, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs, and Disintegration: Indicators of the Coming American Collapse — Clarity Press
https://youtu.be/L9VbGo5N83s

Links — 23 Apr 2022 Part 1

India Punchline
US narrative won’t survive defeat in Donbass (The US info warriors will try to get ahead on this, like accuse Russia of resorting to WMD because it was losing, the seeds of which have already been planted for some time.)
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-narrative-wont-survive-defeat-in-donbass/

The Vineyard of the Saker
Where the West is stuck: The fascism of the 1930s and the ‘fascism’ of the 2020s (longish and detailed. fascism = nationalism + populism + exceptionalism + oligarchy + narrative control + militarism + imperialism + moral derangement.)
Ramin Mazaheri for the Saker blog
http://thesaker.is/where-the-west-is-stuck-the-fascism-of-the-1930s-and-the-fascism-of-the-2020s/

A West-mandated Russian “default”: who wins and who loses? (Speculative but some interesting info, too.)
Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/a-west-mandated-russian-default-who-wins-and-who-loses/

Moon of Alabama
The 'Rules Based Order' Knows No Distance
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/the-rules-based-order-knows-no-distance.html

EU Commission, U.S. Submit To Reality
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/eu-commission-us-submit-to-reality-.html

TASS (Russian state media)
US prepares provocations to accuse Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons
https://tass.com/defense/1442031

Staged use of mass destruction weapons aimed at Russia’s isolation - Defense Ministry
https://tass.com/defense/1442033

https://tass.com/defense/1442035

https://tass.com/world/1442057

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
US Has Moved on to WMD Provocations After Economic Pressure Against Russia Failed, Zakharova Says (USD/RUB now trading in the mid-70s)
https://sputniknews.com/20220423/us-has-moved-on-to-wmd-provocations-after-economic-pressure-against-russia-failed-zakharova-says-1094994876.html

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Please Use My Writings And Quotes, With Or Without Attribution (gift-based model, aka "gift economy," which was the first economic structure, as David Graeber pointed out in Debt
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/04/23/please-use-my-writings-and-quotes-with-or-without-attribution/

The Geopolitics
Changing Course: Yoon Suk-yeol and the New North Korea Policy (Yoon is a hardliner. Expect sparks.)
Gagan Hitkari
https://thegeopolitics.com/changing-course-yoon-suk-yeol-and-the-new-north-korea-policy/

Consortium News
EARTH DAY: Activists Block Newspapers Over Climate Coverage (narrative control)
Jake Johnson, Common Dreams
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/22/activists-block-newspapers-over-climate-coverage/

US Imposes Flawed Food System on the World (industrial model of agriculture)
Jim Goodman, Common Dreams
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/23/us-imposes-flawed-food-system-on-the-world/

Covert Action Magazine
U.S. Media Are Lying About Russian Atrocities in Mariupol, Says Embedded Reporter at Ground Zero (
Sonja Van den Ende, Dutch independent journalist (She has a YouTube channel. Not the greatest post. For interviews see also Patrick Lancaster on YouTube. They are among the few reporting from the front.)
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/04/23/u-s-media-are-lying-about-russian-atrocities-in-mariupol-says-embedded-reporter-at-ground-zero/

One World
It’s Fifth Generation Warfare To Falsely Describe Imran Khan As Fascist ("Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW), which can also be described as Hybrid Warfare, generally refers to the non-kinetic/non-military means that are employed by a foreign state to destabilize a targeted one." Regime change is less costly than kinetic warfare and leaves infrastructure in place after a takeover.)
https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2774

The ONLY Way That Global Warming MIGHT Be Able To Be Stopped (attack the problem at the root, financial capitalism, although Korybko does not use that terminology).
https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2773
Andrew Korybko, American geopolitical analyst and independent journalist based in Moscow, and member of the expert council for the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia

Zero Hedge
Macron Claims Banning Islamic Veil Would Spark "Civil War" In France
Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/macron-claims-banning-islamic-veil-would-spark-civil-war-france

RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
US warns China about Pacific base
https://www.rt.com/news/554368-us-respond-china-solomon

Southfront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
https://southfront.org/poland-preparing-for-war/

Internationist 360º
From Volnovakha to Mariupol: Liberated Donbass Cities Are Coming Back to Life
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/04/22/from-volnovakha-to-mariupol-liberated-donbass-cities-are-coming-back-to-life/

Strategic Culture Foundation 
The Moskva Riddle (SCF is not available through normal channels. So here is a hard copy.)

Get ready: something lethally “asymmetrical” may be about to pop up.

Neither NATO nor Russia is telling us what really happened with the Moskva, the legendary admiral ship of the Black Sea fleet.

NATO because in theory, they know. Moscow, for its part, made it clear they are not saying anything until they can be sure what happened.

One thing is certain. If the Russian Ministry of Defense finds out that NATO did it, they will let loose all the dogs from Hell on NATO, as in “asymmetrical, lethal and fast”.

On Moskva’s location: it was positioned near one of 3 drilling rigs, used for monitoring a whole sector of the Black Sea with hydrophones and NEVA-BS radar, the most westward one, BK-2 Odessa, approximately 66 km northeast from Snake Island. The whole thing was integrated in the regional monitoring systems. As in everything, literally, was monitored: ships, low flying targets, smaller echoes, even the bobbing head of an unsuspecting swimmer.

So there was a quite slim chance that anything – not to mention subsonic Neptune missiles and Bayraktar drones – could have slipped through this aerial net.

So what could have possibly happened?

It could have been some kind of underwater drone, released either from some sneaky sub, or by a SBS team, coming from the western coast, with a stopover at Snake Island. Then that drone somehow managed to drill itself through the Moskva’s hull from below – and exploded its payload inside.

What follows comes from a top source in Brussels: serious, trustworthy, proven record spanning nearly two decades. Yet he may be just spreading disinformation. Or bragging. Or that may be rock solid intel.

Before we start, we should point out it’s hard to believe the Neptune/Bayraktar fairytale angle. After all, as we’ve seen, the Russian fleet had established a multidimensional surveillance/defense layer in the direction of Odessa.

The Moskva was near Odessa, closer to Romania. A year ago, the source maintains, a new phased array locator was installed on it: the illumination range is 500 km. According to the standard Ukrainian narrative, first the Moskva was hit by a drone, and the locators and antennas were smashed. The Moskva was half blind.

Then – according to the Ukrainian narrative – they launched two Neptune cruise missiles from the shore. Guidance was carried out by NATO’s Orion, which was hanging over Romania. The missiles zoomed in on the ship with the homing heads turned off, so that the radiation beam would not be detected.

So we have guidance by NATO’s Orion, transmitting the exact coordinates, leading to two hits, and subsequent detonation of ammunition (that’s the part acknowledged by the Russian Ministry of Defense).

A strategic hit

The Moskva was on combat duty 100-120 km away from Odessa – controlling the airspace within a radius of 250-300 km. So in fact it was ensuring the overlap of the southern half of Moldova, the space from Izmail to Odessa and part of Romania (including the port of Constanta).

Its positioning could not be more strategic. Moskva was interfering with NATO’s covert transfer of military aircraft (helicopters and fighter jets) from Romania to Ukraine. It was being watched 24/7. NATO air reconnaissance was totally on it.

As the Moskva “killer”, NATO may have not chosen the Neptune, as spread by Ukrainian propaganda; the source points to the fifth-generation NSM PKR (Naval Strike Missile, with a range of 185 km, developed by Norway and the Americans.)

He describes the NSM as “able to reach the target along a programmed route thanks to the GPS-adjusted INS, independently find the target by flying up to it at an altitude of 3-5 meters. When reaching the target, the NSM maneuvers and deploys electronic interference. A highly sensitive thermal imager is used as a homing system, which independently determines the most vulnerable places of the target ship.”

As a direct consequence of hitting the Moskva, NATO managed to reopen an air corridor for the transfer of aircraft to the airfields of Chernivtsi, Transcarpathian and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

In parallel, after the destruction of the Moskva, the Black Sea Fleet, according to the source, “no longer seems to have a ship equipped with a long-range anti-aircraft missile system”. Of course a three-band radar Sky-M system remains in play in Crimea, capable of tracking all air targets at a range of up to 600 km. One wonders whether this is enough for all Russian purposes.

So what do we really have here? Fantasy or reality? There was only one way to know.

I ran the info past the inestimable Andrei Martyanov, who knew the Moskva “as Slava in 1981 when she was afloat in the Northern Bay of Sevastopol and my class which was at first summer practice on board of old cruiser Dzerzhinsky was given an extensive introduction to her. So, she was an old lady and it is too bad that she had to finish her long life this way and at this time.”

Martyanov, once again, was the consummate professional, stressing no one, at this stage, really knows what happened. But he made some crucial points: “Per NSM (if we accept this version), even with its Low Observability and GPS guidance under normal (that is sea up to state 5-6) and normal radio-permeability, even the Moskva’s old frigate radar would have seen those missiles in distances of tens of kilometers, somewhere between 15-20 for sure. NSM, as any NATO anti-shipping missile, are subsonic, with their velocity roughly 300 meters per second. That leaves, even in a 15 kilometer range, 45 seconds to detect track and develop a firing solution for whatever ‘on duty’ AD complex. More than enough reaction time.”

Martyanov also stresses, “it is impossible to hide the external impact of the anti-shipping missile – one will immediately know what hit the ship. Moreover, to hit and sink such a target as the Moskva one has to launch a salvo and not only two missiles, likely 3-4 at least. In this case, Russia would know who attacked Moskva. Does NATO know? I am positive this event has NATO written all over it, if it is not an internal sabotage which absolutely cannot be excluded at this stage. I am sure if Nebo was operational it would have seen the salvo.”

Which brings us to the inevitable clincher: “If NATO was involved, I am sure we will see some retaliation, after all, as I am on record all the time, US bases in Middle East and elsewhere are nothing more than fat prestigious targets.”

So get ready: something lethally “asymmetrical” may be about to pop up.