Friday, October 4, 2019

Links — 4 Oct 2019

Popular Resistance
Hong Kong: Hoodlums Are Not Heroes And Hooliganism Is Not A Movement For Democracy
Kevin Zeese

Zero Hedge
Undercover Cops Badly Beaten As Hong Kong Protesters Rampage Over 'Anti-Mask' Law
Tyler Durden
Reminiscence of the Future
Andrei Martyanov

Oilprice.com
Russia’s Largest Oil Company [Rosneft] Ditches Dollar In New Oil Deals
Tsvetana Paraskova

Counterpunch
Capitalism’s Triumph: Labor Rights Violated in Every Country on Earth
Pete Dolack

Counterpunch
The Lies of Capitalism
Elizabeth Ottenberg

The Vineyard of the Saker
MBS must shelve his vicious war in Yemen
Pepe Escocar

South China Morning Post
Trump will try to smash the China-Russia-Iran triangle ... here’s why he will fail
Pepe Escobar

Zero Hedge
Putin: China Ready To Buy As Much Soybeans, Wheat As Russia Can Produce Amid US Trade War
Tyler Durden




Real World Economics Review — Modern monetary theory and its critics



Introduction: Whither MMT? 2The editors
Alternative paths to modern money theory 5 L. Randall Wray
Initiating a parallel electronic currency in a eurocrisis country – why it would work 23 Trond Andresen
An MMT perspective on macroeconomic policy space 32 Phil Armstrong
Monetary sovereignty is a spectrum: modern monetary theory and developing countries 46 Bruno Bonizzi, Annina Kaltenbrunner and Jo Michell
Are modern monetary theory’s lies “plausible lies”? 62 David Colander
What is modern about MMT? A concise note 72 Paul Davidson
Modern monetary theory: a European perspective 75 Dirk H. Ehnts and Maurice Höfgen
MMT: the wrong answer to the wrong question 85 Jan Kregel
Modern monetary theory and post-Keynesian economics 97 Marc Lavoie
Money’s relation to debt: some problems with MMT’s conception of money 109 Tony Lawson
The sleights of hand of MMT 129 Anne Mayhew
Tax and modern monetary theory 138 Richard Murphy
Macroeconomics vs. modern money theory: some unpleasant Keynesian arithmetic and 148 monetary dynamics Thomas I. Palley
MMT and TINA 156 Louis-Philippe Rochon
Modern monetary theory: is there any added value? 167 Malcolm Sawyer
The significance of MMT in linking money, markets, sector balances and aggregate demand 180 Alan Shipman
The political economy of modern money theory, from Brecht to Gaitskell 19 Jan Toporowski 
Articles can be downloaded individually at the link below. If you prefer, you can download whole issue.

 Real World Economics Review — 1 October 2019
Modern monetary theory and its critics 

China’s Corrupt Meritocracy — Yuen Yuen Ang


This is a useful post, but it errs inso far as it implies that reducing the power of the CCP and going to a more liberal model would reduce corruption. This has not been the case in the West, where there is also a symbiotic relationship between politicians and business and finance. 

This doesn't change by making what is fundamentally unethical legal, and corruption is also invited by a double standard of justice, lax oversight, and penalties that do not deter but rather are booked as another cost of doing business.

The difference in the West is that a democracy is not a meritocracy and therefore, many Western political leaders are not competent. 

If China becomes more liberal, corruption will not necessarily decrease but competence may. Thinking otherwise is believing the myth.

Where status, power and wealth are involved, corruption is always an issue, and the high stakes attract those that are corrupt or corruptible. And, as the post points out, the question boils down to who is going to police the police.

As a matter of fact, both Presidents Xi and Putin have appointed independent investigators and many cases have been reversed for prosecution, even of high officials.
Yuen Yuen Ang | Professor of Political Economy at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

“Avoiding Plutocracy Would Require a Political Change”: Branko Milanovic on the Future of Capitalism — Asher Schechter

In an interview with ProMarket, CUNY Graduate Center economist Branko Milanovic discussed the differences and similarities between US-style and China-style capitalism and explained why, without major reforms, liberal capitalism could lead to plutocracy.
"Could lead" or "has led"?

While I generally like Branko Milanovic's work, I think his analysis of "capitalism" is fundamentally misguided since it is based on a Western-biased view of economics and political theory. 

So-called capitalism has not "won," and its gains cannot be attributed to its having shown that it is the superior economic system.  Rather than being the tale of the spread of freedom and democracy it is represented as, the history of capitalism has been the story of the extension of Western imperialism and colonialism that began in the feudal era and continues under the regime of neoliberalism, neo-imperialism, and neocolonialism since WWI. In addition, what Milanovic calls "plutocracy," is better characterized as neo-feudalism.

This view is reminiscent of Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man (1992), which the author himself later disputed. Milanovic is aware of this and includes a trapdoor.

For example, characterizing the Chinese system as "authoritarian capitalism" is based on Western assumptions that do not accord with the facts seen objectively and certainly not with the way the Chinese leadership characterizes the system it is developing as a work in progress. The issue is really about who controls the commanding heights of the economy, the primary means of production, governmental policy, and the dominant narrative, and who holds the reins of culture. That is, how is authority exercised.

Nevertheless, the point that capitalism and liberal democracy are antithetical and that capitalism leads to plutocracy are well-taken.

Western economists generally assume that everything hangs on "the price mechanism," presuming "free markets" and rational choice by free agents as the basis for a "liberal" (capitalist) system. Well, it's a lot more complicated than that socially, political and economically, because of things like class structure, power distribution, and institutional arrangements. 

In the first place, pure capitalism (classical economic liberalism) exists nowhere. What does exist is various expressions of adulterated capitalism that are closer to neo-feudalism than liberal capitalism as an ideal. Conventional economic assumes classical economic liberalism as the natural state of the socio-economic system, but its models exist only in possibility space and not actual space. It is doubtful that classical economic liberalism could exist anywhere at scale and certainly not at the global level considering world conditions. There is just no way to get there, and there is no power center with the capacity either, about which Milanovic is more aware than most economists and other "experts" in the West.

So let's get real. In my view, Branco Milanovic looks here too much at the surface of the world economy and world order. He needs to look deeper at the world system and how it actually operates in depth. Moreover, since he is looking from a Western point of view, this is difficult for him, as it would be for any Western educated person, even someone from another culture or civilization. Milanovic did grow up in such a situation, being from Serbia in the former Yugoslavia. This does enable him to hold a broader view than most in the West. But this is just an interview, and I have not read his recent book.

But that, too, is about "capitalism," which in my view this is no longer a very useful term in analysis, since it is so assumption-laden and, moreover, has become a cliché. Everyone thinks they know what capitalism is and yet no one does really, owing to the degree of abstraction involved.

That said, this is a good post and a should-read. Milanovic is saying things needing to be said that others are not, since their view is even more limited. I just think that the analysis needs to be broader, deeper, and more nuanced. If we view economics in terms of the big three — Smith, Marx, and Keynes — a fourth view is sorely needed at this juncture, one that deals with the global economy in terms of a world order and global system that are in flux. But is there even anyone with the requisite grasp of the matter, let alone the ability to handle a matter of this scale and complexity rigorously? What type of method would apply?

ProMarket — The blog of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
“Avoiding Plutocracy Would Require a Political Change”: Branko Milanovic on the Future of Capitalism
Asher Schechter

See also

Frontline
INTERVIEW WITH WOLFGANG STREECK — ‘Marx’s writing more relevant today than ever’
John  Jipson and P.M. Jitheesh

Also
Abstract
Capitalism has always been a global system, but not in fixed ways. Different national powers have emerged and become dominant over the centuries, but the fundamental processes underlying the uneven development of global capitalism have not altered; they continue to be driven by imperialism — the struggle of large capital over economic territory of various kinds. Since the late 1960s, only the East Asian region has shown notable increases in its share of global GDP, and for the last two decades this has been dominated by the rise of China. This is directly related to the ability of the Chinese state to control the economy and to implement heterodox policies with very high investment rates. However, the Chinese case is exceptional: few other developing countries have followed a trajectory anything like that of China. Meanwhile, internal inequalities have increased across the world, as the bargaining power of capital vis‐à‐vis labour has increased dramatically in every country. This reflects the changed form of 21st century imperialism, which relies increasingly on the international legal and regulatory architecture as fortified by various multilateral, plurilateral and bilateral agreements that establish the hegemony of global capital in different ways.
Wiley Online Library
A Brave New World, or the Same Old Story with New Characters?
Jayati Ghosh

Trump promotes private Medicare coverage, drawing contrast with Democrats' health care plans — Rachel Roubein


Are you ready for limited provider networks?

Politico
Trump promotes private Medicare coverage, drawing contrast with Democrats' health care plans
Rachel Roubein

See also
Medicare Advantage plans are also a terrible waste of public dollars. They have overcharged Medicare by $30 billion in the past three years alone.
Angry Bear
Trump’s Executive Order is Backdoor Privatization of Medicare

The German Problem — Heiner Flassbeck


German mercantilism, deficit hysteria and debt phobia compounded by economic ignorance and the preference for theory over data.

From some reason through, Heiner Flassbeck does not mention the ruinous effect of adopting the euro as  the European common currency, which underlies this entire issue.

Flassbeck Economics
The German Problem
Heiner Flassbeck

"We have to get rid of the babies!"


Wow! nice platonistic thesis from this nut-job... More hijinks from female "Climate!" nutters this week...







Thursday, October 3, 2019

Military Links — 3 October 2019

Reminiscence of the Future
"Revelation" Mode.
Andrei Martyanov

RT
Moscow is helping Beijing build missile-attack warning system that only Russia & US have – Putin

The Unz Review
New Weapons and the New Tactics Which They Make Possible: Three Examples
The Saker

The Grayzone
Elite UK military unit secretly trained by leftist regime-change advocate Gilbert Achcar and other academics
Ben Norton

Zero Hedge
Martial Law Unfolding In Iraq: 30 Protesters Shot, Internet Blackout, 24-Hour Curfews
Tyler Durden


Spreading the Gospel of Modern Monetary Theory — Osita Nwanevu


A look at MMT as a social and political phenomenon that is growing. MMT is no longer "just" an macroeconomic theory as the basis for policy formulation. The ball is rolling.

The New Republic
Spreading the Gospel of Modern Monetary Theory
Osita Nwanevu

Links — 3 Oct 2019

Bruegel
Thomas Piketty’s New Book: Impressive Research, Problematic Solutions
Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jonathan Woetzel, a McKinsey senior partner, a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, and co-author of No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends; and  Jeongmin Seong, senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Shanghai.
Blog – Institute of Economic Affairs
The Thunberg phenomenon, Extinction Rebellion, and the denial of trade-offs
Kristian Niemietz

Fort Russ News
VIDEO – Putin about Greta Thunberg: I am sure she is a kind and sincere girl, but …
Drago Victorien

Checkpoint Asia
The Voice of Reason: Putin Pooh-Poohs Greta Thunberg’s UN Performance
Vladimir Soldatkin



Macroeconomics in Germany: The forgotten lesson of Hjalmar Schacht — Biagio Bossone, Stefano Labini

As Hitler rose to power, in January 1933 the economic situation in Germany was dire. Stocks of raw materials had been depleted, factories and warehouses lay empty, and about 6.5 million people (about 25% of the domestic workforce) were unemployed and on the verge of malnutrition, while the country was crushed by debt and its foreign exchange reserves approached zero.

Yet, from 1933-1938, thanks to Schacht, the economy recovered spectacularly (Figure 1).2 Schacht’s objective to jumpstart the moribund economy required money. But money was not available, since savings were inexistent and production was so restricted that savings would not accumulate (Schacht 1967). Neither could money be printed, since lending to the government would have put the Reichsbank at risk of losing control of monetary policy.

Schacht then contrived a brilliant unconventional monetary solution. For payments, state contractors and suppliers received bills of exchange issued by a company called ‘MEFO’.3 The MEFO-bills were state guaranteed, they could circulate in the economy and could be discounted by their holders at the Reichsbank in exchange for cash.

Schacht believed that the duty of the central bank was to make available to the economy as much money as necessary to facilitate output production. The issuance of bills of exchange was instrumental to this end – as each bill stood against the sale of newly produced goods, and each issue of money was based on the exchange of the new goods, central bank money issuance against bills could not be inflationary. Indeed, the employees of MEFO checked that every MEFO-bill issued was tied to a quantity of newly produced goods, and only bills issued against the sales of these goods were granted. This way, the circulation of money and the circulation of goods remained in equilibrium.4

The Reichsbank undertook to accept on demand all MEFO bills, irrespective of their size, number and due date, and to exchange them for money. The bills were discounted at a 4% interest rate. As such, they were given the character of interest-bearing money, and banks, savings banks, and firms could hold and use them exactly as if they were money. If all MEFO-bills had been presented for discount at once, inflation would have resulted. But this did not happen – making the bills both re-discountable and interest-bearing allowed for much of them to be absorbed by the market without going through the Reichsbank.5 Also, output responded remarkably well. State purchases fed into a growing demand for labour, and firms restarted investments using MEFO-bills as collateral for borrowing. Investments put additional manpower to work, and incomes and savings increased as a result, raising fiscal revenues (Guillebaud 1940).
In 1938, Schacht strongly urged terminating the MEFO programme, as full employment had been reached and the closing output gap was raising price tensions (Toniolo 1988).6 He clashed with Hitler on this, and on 19 January 1939 the Führer removed him from the Reichsbank.…
Schacht was using the real bills doctrine.

Defend Democracy Press
Macroeconomics in Germany: The forgotten lesson of Hjalmar Schacht
Biagio Bossone, Stefano Labini

Bill Mitchell— Leading indicators are suggesting recession

In the last two days, some major leading indicators have been released for the US and Europe, which have suggested the world is heading rather quickly for recession. It seems that the disruptions to global trade arising from the tariff war is impacting on US export orders rather significantly. The so-called ISM New Export Orders Index fell by 2.3 percentage points in September to a low of 41 per cent. The ISM reported that “The index had its lowest reading since March 2009 (39.4 percent)”. This is the third consecutive monthly fall (down from 50 per cent in June 2019). Across the Atlantic, the latest PMI for Germany reveals a deepening recession in its manufacturing sector, now recording index point outcomes as low as the readings during the GFC. Again, exports are being hit by China’s slowdown. However, while export sectors (for example, manufacturing) are in decline and will need the trade dispute settled quickly if they are to recover, the services sector in Japan, demonstrates the advantages of maintaining fiscal support for domestic demand. Japan’s service sector is growing despite its manufacturing sector declining in the face of the global downturn. The lesson is that policy makers have to abandon their reliance on monetary policy and, instead, embrace a new era of fiscal dominance. With revenue declining from exports, growth will rely more on domestic demand. If manufacturing is in decline and that downturn reverberates through the industry structure, then domestic demand will falter unless fiscal stimulus is introduced. It is not rocket science....
The US is running an unusually high deficit, indicating that fiscal flow is counteracting what would otherwise be a contractive condition. However, the expansion is dampened by the Fed's monetary policy. Adding "liquidity" to the financial system by increasing bank reserves is not stimulatory like adding spendable funds to bank accounts through fiscal policy. The latter increases demand while the latter restricts bank lending owing to Basel III requirements.

Europe on the other hand is still stuck in erroneous thinking about expansionary fiscal austerity. Mario Draghi finally warned about this as he prepares to leave his position as the head of the ECB.

Bill's point about the decline in the manufacturing sector and increase in the service sector offset each other to some degree. But manufacturing is about production and profit from production. When the profit rate falls, then so does investment in productive activity. This weakens an economy as the life-support system of the society going forward. It can also be inflationary if production falls behind fiscal injection. Moreover, it tends to increase the trade deficit as more products are imported.

Trump is concerned about the strength of the dollar and apparently believes that this is a result of Fed policy being too tight. But in a floating rate system, the policy rate does not have the same effect as in a fixed rate system. Moreover, as expectations of global recession mount worldwide, more funds flow into US Treasuries as the safest haven.

The trade war is also beginning to take its toll both as a result of expectations and also based on rising uncertainty and unsettled geopolitical conditions. The US and American economy (American consumer) were considered the anchor of the world economy. That assumption is now waning for good reasons on one hand and rising fear on the other.

We are not there yet, but the trajectory is not encouraging. Moreover, a socially and politically divisive battle is underway in the US over impeachment of the president. Banana republic stuff that further undermines confidence in the system.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Leading indicators are suggesting recession
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

See also

Angry Bear
Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month
NewDealdemocrat

Pankaj Mishra - China Needs to Be More Chinese

The country has stood up, but on Western terms rather than those its greatest leaders and thinkers once envisioned.


China wasn't always authoritarian, and in the past it successfully ruled as a soft state. The state was considered there to serve society, rather than the other way around.

China has fought back against the brutal Western imperialism, says Pankaj Mishra, with a counter harshness and industrialisation, but it's time for it to find its more gentle and tolerant tradition.

Xi may impress some with a display of Chinese military hardware. But the nationalism he seeks to turn into a civil religion is not only felt to be oppressive by many people -- whether Muslims in Xinjiang, Buddhists in Tibet or protesters in Hong Kong. It is also profoundly derivative, without Chinese characteristics.
Sun Yat-Sen, who is venerated as father of the Chinese nation in both the People’s Republic and Taiwan, was clear about this. Towards the end of his life, he warned his compatriots against adopting an idea of civilization developed in the West, which “when applied to society, will mean the cult of force, with aeroplanes, bombs, and cannons as its outstanding features.”

But what comes after development is significantly advanced, and the bullies lose their power to bully? Can China still offer something new and redemptive, just as its first generation of leaders hoped?
The possibility is kept alive by some Chinese thinkers at least. In a recent book, “Rethinking China’s Rise: A Liberal Critique,” Xu Jilin, one of China’s major public intellectuals, laments that the national pride sweeping the Chinese today is born out of beating the West at its own game rather than devising the rules of a new, less destructive game.
Refusing to be over-impressed by China’s material success, Xu delves into its moral, intellectual and spiritual traditions. He offers a vision of China as a tolerant society -- one that has recovered its civilizational values of pluralism and practices them domestically as well as internationally.
Bloomberg 

The Surreal Art of Michael Sowa








AJ+ Why UBI Isn't Progressive

Who doesn't want free money? Sure, a universal basic income ($1,000 a month with "no strings attached") sounds like a good idea. But under presidential candidate Andrew Yang's plan, a UBI would replace government benefits and would be paid for by the working class, not the rich.

Newsbroke's Matt Lieb explains how the "Freedom Dividend" is simply a way to maintain the current economic status quo.



Edward Snowdon Tweet - Bernie Sanders

I am neither Democrat nor Republican, but Sanders is in my opinion the most fundamentally decent man in politics. His life-long struggle for a more equitable society is a reminder of how far we have come—and a challenge to complete the journey.

#GetWellBernie

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Links — 2 Oct 2019

Mint Press News
Former Israeli Intel Official Claims Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell Worked for Israeli Intel
Whitney Webb

Progress in Political Economy
Neoliberalism against Democracy? Wendy Brown’s “In the Ruins of Neoliberalism” and the Specter of Fascism
Martijin Konings

Zero Hedge
WTO Sides With US, Says Trump Can Retaliate For Billions In Illegal Airbus Subsidies
Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge
US To Slap Tariffs On European Airplanes, Cheese, Wine, Scotch And Coffee
Tyler Durden


East Asia Forum
Banking crisis impedes India’s economy
Rajeswari Sengupta

Labor Shortages


Gonna have to soon outlaw urinalysis and be hiring all the currently unqualified drunks and dopers I guess... or wages are going to continue to increase markedly... hard to see how a big infrastructure initiative is going to be staffed or a New Green Deal...

The shortage of qualified trade workers continues to be a prime concern for the construction industry. This dearth of workers, along with the country’s threatened or actual use of tariffs, means that the meteoric rise in construction costs is only expected to continue.



Pauline Muchina and Michael Merryman-Lotze - The U.S. has killed thousands of people with lethal drones – it’s time to put a stop to it

The brutal US regime has killed thousands of innocent people with drones, and many were children. Rather than defeat terrorism, it has strengthened it. Local businesses and livelihoods have been destroyed, and family members murdered, so people turn to Jihadism.

For years, the American Friends Service Committee has joined other organizations in calling for a ban on drone warfare. The United States’ use of lethal drones has killed thousands of people – including hundreds of children – and displaced countless others. Instead of making the U.S. safer, drones have undermined efforts to end conflict and build stability and viable economies in countries around the world.

But the government’s secrecy around its use of lethal drones has concealed the real human toll of these attacks. According to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, drone attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen have killed between 8,500 and 12,000 people, including as many as 1,700 civilians – 400 of whom were children. This is a conservative estimate of how many civilians have been killed, especially since who qualifies as a "combatant" is widely disputed. These figures also don’t include killings in Iraq, Libya, and other countries.

American Friends Service Committee 

Pauline Muchina and Michael Merryman-Lotze - Pauline Muchina and Michael Merryman-Lotze

Rainer Shea - China is Saving the Uighurs From Jihadist Indoctrination

Uighur terrorists have murdered a thousand Chinese citizens so far and have injured many other through bombing raids and multiple stabbings. China re-educates these Jihadist extremists, while America hunts them down with drones. The Chinese government respects Islam, and has fair and strong laws to stop religious discrimination. 


If the Western media were really concerned about stopping the indoctrination of Uighur youth, it would be condemning not China but the United States...

For decades, the U.S. has been helping Islamic terrorist groups so that it can advance its goal of dominating the Middle East.    

... This strategic willingness to side with the terrorists that America supposedly hates has manifested in a Western campaign to destabilize China using religion and terror.

According to a series of reports from the Chinese government, the U.S. and Turkey have been aiding and abetting Uighur separatists in Xinjiang. Upon critically examing China's claims in an essay titled "Uyghur Militants in Syria: The Turkish Connection," Dr Michael Clarke has concluded that "The apparent linkage of Uyghur militants not only to long-standing sanctuaries in the 'Af-Pak' frontier region but also to the jihadist 'witches brew' of Syria points to an unprecedented trans-nationalization of Uyghur terrorism. 

For anyone who has actually followed real reporting on the ground in Syria, you would know that Uyghurs are among the most violent of all the various fighting groups in Syria."

Op Ed News


Rainer Shea - China is Saving the Uighurs From Jihadist Indoctrination

3rd International MMT Conference panel videos now available


https://www.mmtconference.org

Reserve Army Of The Hungry — Brian Romanchuk

I have returned from the 3rd annual Modern Monetary Theory conference, and I am now catching up on things. One of the observations that stuck with me was some comments about the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) made by the presenter Maggie Dickinson. She noted that the welfare state did not contract completely since the 1980s, as some components have grown, with SNAP being an example of growth. While thinking about this, I realised that the rise in food assistance (such as SNAP, as well as food banks, which have grown in importance in the other "anglo" countries at least) helps explain the breakdown in employment statistics as an indicator.
Noting that the unemployment rate is "broken" as an indicator as a result of the changing structure of the labour market is not particularly novel. For example, Bill Mitchell's academic work has documented the structural changes in employment policies in the OECD since the early 1990s, and the rise of "underemployment." (Bill Mitchell is one of the founders of MMT, and I was on a panel with at the conference.) My concern is somewhat more stark: employment status as a whole has become somewhat meaningless as an indicator.
(Note: the panels are available on video at: https://www.mmtconference.org/)
I will first discuss some of the more "technocratic" implications of my thinking first, then dip into political economic ramblings....
Bond Economics
Reserve Army Of The Hungry
Brian Romanchuk

Macro Dynamics with a Job Guarantee – Part 3: Adjustment Process — Peter Cooper

The model as outlined so far implies particular dynamics. These dynamics are driven by the quantity response of the broader economy (sector b) to mismatches in supply and demand. With the size of the labor force, level of total employment, within-sector productivity and the economy’s productive capacity all taken as exogenously given, the quantity response of sector b requires a change in the sector’s level of employment. The response of sector b induces an inverse response from the job-guarantee sector (sector j), which adjusts as required to maintain full employment at all times. The resulting variations in the composition of employment between higher-productivity sector b and lower-productivity sector j enable the adjustment of total output to total demand....
heteconomist
Macro Dynamics with a Job Guarantee – Part 3: Adjustment Process
Peter Cooper

Links — 1 Oct 2019

FRBSL — On the Economy
The White Working Class: State-Level Declines and Geographic Concentration
Bill Emmons, Lead Economist; Ana Kent, Policy Analyst; and Lowell Ricketts, Lead Analyst, Center for Household Financial Stability

BIS
Mario Draghi: Interview in the Financial Times

BIS
Richard H Clarida: The Federal Reserve's review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices

Project Syndicate
How to Rethink Capitalism
Simon Johnson | professor at MIT Sloan and former chief economist of the IMF

Project Syndicate
Are Europe’s Economic Prospects Brighter Than They Appear?
Anatole Kaletsky | Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics

Michael Roberts Blog — blogging from a marxist economist
A global manufacturing recession
Michael Roberts

Zero Hedge
Dalio: The Next Logical Steps In A Dangerous Journey To War, The 1935-45 Analog

Moon of Alabama
China's Anniversary Parade Reveals New Weapons That Will Influence U.S. Strategies

Zero Hedge
"No Force Can Shake Us": Xi Says As Hypersonic Nuclear Missiles Unveiled At China's Largest Ever Military Parade
Tyler Durden

Fort Russ News
Major for China? Massive oil deposit discovered in Asian giant
Paul Antonopoulos

Sputnik International
Huawei CEO Says Company Started 6G Research ‘A Long Time Ago’, Brushing Off Blacklisting Fears

Sputnik International
Grayzone Investigation Forces Venezuelan Opposition to Show its Hands, Top Official Resigns

Sputnik International
Chinese President Promises to Preserve 'One Country, Two Systems' Principle in Hong Kong




 


BBG: Fed Has No Choice But to Tackle Both Repo and Recession


More chatter suggesting a near term Fed increase of reserve balances... and perhaps more policy rate decreases...


Analysts have been expecting that Fed policy makers would probably announce a plan on Oct. 30, after their two-day meeting, to expand the size of the central bank’s balance sheet. The questions would simply have been by how much ... he played down the repo market’s mayhem after the Fed’s most recent decision. 
But that act just got tougher because it looks as if the Fed will have to deal with recession fears on top of repo strains.



Trump back to bashing the Fed


Well he can no longer complain they aren't "pumping in more money!"...




Larry Chin - Is the CIA behind the China-bashing Olympics protests?

Is the CIA behind the behind the Falun Gong?

This article is 11 years old but looks at the geopolitics of China and the US. Tibet and Africa are full of resources which the West wants control of.

Tibet: imperial pawn
Behind the powerful din created by the popular and celebrity-embraced “Save Tibet,” campaign is the fact that the CIA is behind the Tibet independence movement.
According to many reports, the Dalai Lama himself may be a long-time CIA asset. See The Role of the CIA behind the Dalai Lama’s holy cloak and The Tibet Card.
In addition to being geostrategically situated, Tibet is also rich with oil and gas, and minerals — and this is just part of the larger superpower warfare between the US and China. See Tibet, the “great game”, and the CIA.
The legions of pro-Tibet activists also seem largely unaware of the historical fact that the “holy land of compassion” has been a CIA pawn since the end of World War II. The infamous Tolstoi Mission sent CIA operatives into Tibet, with plans to establish it as a US military base, from which the US could control the entire Asian region. This activity flourished under the US-supported, opium-banked Nationalist Kuomintang regime of Chiang Kai-Shek.
When the Communists rose to power, the CIA trained Tibetans in guerrilla tactics to use against the regime in Peking, and thousands of Tibetans lost their lives in these battles. Who benefited? Who really gave the orders then — and who is driving the agenda now?
Global Research 
Larry Chin - Is the CIA behind the China-bashing Olympics protests?l


The Truth about the Falon Gong 

This guy spent some time with the Falun Gong. It's just his opinion, but he says they are a crazy cult and he doubts the organ harvesting myth. 





Thomas Fricke - The Myth of the Prosperity Generating Free Market Has Been Dispelled. It’s Time for a New New Deal.

This is an excellent article describing how neoliberalism has failed, and how most people have become poorer because of it.

Not only did the neoliberals encourage the mass movement of goods, services, and finance around the world, but also the mass movement of people, to lower business costs - and all done under the guise of being 'nice' liberals. Whole communities were distrupted and house prices shot up even further out of reach for ordinary people. The left got the blame, so now right-wing populism is on the rise. Everything is crumbling. 

Thomas Fricke says the science is good now so they can identify which government projects will produce excellent returns. The market is simply not interested in investing in these long term goals.

For more than a quarter of a century there was no doubt about what is right: The market trumps the state [no pun intended]. What to do with State-owned enterprises? Privatize them. Your pension? Self-provision through the free market. Unemployment benefits? Curtailments. Opening borders for Eastern Europeans? Certainly. And the next free trade round? Of course. And so forth. In the end, even Social Democrats contributed to lowering top tax rates and making hedge funds happy.
In these times a lot of prosperity was generated throughout the world. The Asians were able to sell off their cheap goods everywhere. And the West benefited from cheap clothing from Vietnam and toys from China. Germany enjoyed an export miracle because everyone needed machines made in Germany.
And yet something seems to have gone awry. There is this unease. There is this resentment. There are these downsides.
Economics 

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Matt Stoller — The Great Turn Is Beginning

Yves Smith looks around corners before the rest of us get there. She was premature on the financial crisis in 2006, on mortgage-backed securities/Magnetar, on the foreclosure fraud crisis, on the Eurozone, on the failure of Syriza, on private equity, and on the “crapification” of American corporations.
She’s early, she’s right, and she’s clear. But in D.C., where I live and work, she’s anything but celebrated. In fact, as we’ve seen, people like Yves, and many of you, are attacked and demeaned for telling the truth.

In the case of Naked Capitalism, the problem is increasingly Google and Facebook undermining web traffic and killing advertising revenue. When society becomes a game of getting to the top by shooting the messenger, what happens is… the Boeing 737 Max.

By reading this, you are saying that you choose to spend your time and your mind on things that matter, as opposed to the nonsense and bullshit that exists in so much of our world. We have to support our own. And that means throwing some coin to Yves and her crew of merry truth-tellers: Lambert and Jerri-Lynn. Remember, guest contributors like Hubert Horan with his series on Uber’s financial snake oil come here because readers like you are here. You can donate here....
Naked Capitalism
Matt Stoller: The Great Turn Is Beginning
Matt Stoller

Ryan McCarthy - Reports on China ‘organ harvesting’ derive from front groups of far-right cult Falun Gong

A wave of corporate media reports on Chinese organ harvesting rely without acknowledgement on front groups connected to the far-right Falun Gong cult, whose followers believe “Trump was sent by heaven to destroy the Communist Party.”


Western corporate media outlets have gone wild with claims that the Chinese state is “harvesting” the organs of ethnic minorities and political opposition figures. But an investigation by The Grayzone has found that these allegations originate from front groups run by the far-right opposition cult Falun Gong.


The Greyzone