- U.S. growth is accelerating as the year ends, but the economy's performance in 2011 was disappointing.
- Prospects are better for 2012, but only if policymakers in Europe and Washington address critical issues.
- Europe's current recession is expected to be mild, but the threat of a deeper downturn has financial markets nervous.
- Unless U.S. lawmakers act, federal fiscal policy will shave 1.7 percentage points from real GDP in 2012.
- Businesses will likely remain reluctant to invest and hire more aggressively until after the presidential election.
Read it at Moody's Analytics/Dismal ScientistU.S. Macro Outlook 2012: Diminished Expectations
By Mark Zandi
(h/t Roger Erickson via email)