In two previous columns, in March 2010 and June 2011, I informed Gazette readers of my early prediction for the presidential election based on the Keys to the White House. Nothing has changed in this final prediction. The Keys still point strongly to an Obama victory next month
The Keys to the White House are a historically based system for predicting the results of American presidential elections. I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a world-renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models.
Retrospectively, the Keys accurately account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980. Prospectively, the keys have predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008. The Keys first predicted a Democratic victory for 2008 in an article in the journal Foresight in February 2006.Gazette.Net
Allan J. Lichtman: Final prediction: The Keys to White House
Allan J. Lichtman | Distinguished Professor, Department of History, American University
Of interest if you are into prediction modeling.
1 comment:
Questionable claims:
--"The economy is in a slow recovery, not a recession"
Am I the only one who thinks we are in a DEPRESSION ?
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-- "The enactment of the health care bill secures Policy Change"
ACA doesn't do much until 2014 -- if it survives the next SCOTUS challenge.
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--"The absence of sustained, violent upheavals like those of the 1960s avoids loss of the Social Unrest key."
Does the author not read the news ? Hello, there are protests going on all over the world.
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--"The president has not suffered a major foreign policy or military failure comparable to Pearl Harbor or losing the Vietnam War"
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc.. are all victories ?
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--" elimination of Osama bin Laden secures Foreign/Military Success Key:
Al Qaeda thriving, Muslims still hate us, blowback just a matter of time.
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My take: no incumbent president has ever been re-elected with high unemployment except FDR (who had cut unemployment in half).
No incumbent president has ever been re-elected with an approval rating less than 48%. Obama's Gallup approval sits at 48% today.
I say it is too close to call. It could go either way depending on turn out.
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