This is the first time that I've seen the electoral map has flip to Romney. While polls had Obama and Romney neck and neck, with Romney even ahead in some, the electoral map remained firmly in Obama’s corner until now. This map is courtesy of Intrade.
25 comments:
This map has Ohio as a tossup but the trend and the latest polls have Obama up by 5 points.
If Ohio had been flipping back and forth I would be worried. Obama has had a consistent lead over trend.
Lot's of people have already voted, myself included.
Predictwise has Obama Ohio 65.5 % and Romney 34.5 %.
Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite
by By NATE SILVER
The central premise behind why we see President Obama as the modest favorite is very simple: he seems to hold a slight advantage right now in enough states to carry 270 electoral votes.
Predictwise likely winner Barack Obama 63.4 % and Mitt Romney 36.6 % at 2 pm 10/22.
how can anyone believe that snake oil salesman Romney?
y,
Hey take it easy on him perhaps he simply doesn't want to be "wedded" to just one policy position.... ;) rsp,
Tom,
Intrade also showing 61% to 39% in favor of Obama, but first time showing electoral edge to Romney.
Intrade currently has Washington state as "leaning" Democrat with a 60/40 split:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/
I see a +30% drop for Obama in a day. Not sure what information could have caused that, but my only reaction is: LOL.
s/b >30% drop
Here is the current electoral map from PredictWise, showing a 96.6% chance of Obama taking WA:
http://www.predictwise.com/maps/2012president
So not sure what's going on with Intrade today (at least for WA state), but something seems amiss.
That isn't the current map.
The map shows an Obama victory, as every map I've ever seen. The chance of victory for Obama is now being estimated at 60%-70%
Ohio is the key to the electoral college vote, and the president is leading there. Mitt Romney cannot win without taking Ohio.
Should be obvious from the above that Romney's flip-flopping on the auto industry rescue put him on the wrong side of the issue in Ohio, but opposing the auto "bailout" was probably necessary to secure the nomination in the first place. The auto industry is crucial to the Ohio economy. Obama's strong stance and action to back it is costing Romney, whose position is much weaker. Interesting, because the GOP was sure that the economy would make beating Obama a slam-duck. Looks like it may sink them instead.
I would have looked more favorably on Romney had he not picked Paul Ryan as his running mate. The guy is a completely misguided sociopathic moron and he'd be one step away from the presidency.
@Tom here is how Romney wins without Ohio or Penn. I think Romney will win Ohio but who knows.
http://graphics.wsj.com/MAPMAKER/#map=333303000330330333300000333333000300300033333300333
@ Matt P.
Yes, you can build such a map, but the likelihood of Romney taking all those states is low given the present state of the polling and prediction markets.
"I think Romney will win Ohio but who knows"
This goes against all odds. Over the past months Obama has had between a tie and a lead in the vast majority of polls.
Lately the polls showing leads have benn consistently higher.
It is very unlikely when both the ticks and the trend are against you that you will pull off an upset. I suppose it's possible but…so is winning the lottery.
Nate Silver parses it today with the latest figures.
Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election
"This goes against all odds. Over the past months Obama has had between a tie and a lead in the vast majority of polls."
Huh? Ohio is very close. Within margin of error. Would I give Obama a slight edge if vote was today? Sure. But the national trend is all going Romney's way. This is the opposite of winning the lottery. An incumbent in a tie or very close race is more likely to lose IMO since he hasn't closed the deal. Undecideds will break to the challenger. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
Jesus and I just took a look at the one outlier poll from CBS which has Obama up 5 (sharply own from their earlier poll I may add). The affiliation breakdown: 35D/34I/26R.
Obama being up 5% with that type of affiliation in the poll is meaningless IMO.
"Huh? Ohio is very close. Within margin of error. "
And Obama has been ahead the entire time since January. It would only be a tie within the margin of error if Romney spent some time in the lead.
"But the national trend is all going Romney's way"
The National trend is kind of irrelevant. There are states Obama is guaranteed to win and states Romney is guaranteed to win. What matters now are the swing states, Ohio being one of them and Obama is favored 70/30 or so to win it.
Not many scenarios where Romney loses Ohio and still wins.
Did I say bet you life savings on Obama? No. But an Obama loss would be a pretty big upset at this point.
On the other hand does it really matter? They both suck when it comes to economic issues.
We're screwed either way. I only care because almost all of the people I live amongst are stark-raving mad Obama-Muslim-Kenyan-antichrist-New-World-Order-Obamacare-Ni-Clang haters that will probably be jumping out of buildings or lighting themselves on fire if Obama wins…so I will enjoy that at least. Plus Acorn.
AMAZING. You guys can't see the forest for the trees.
"Did I say bet you life savings on Obama? No. But an Obama loss would be a pretty big upset at this point."
No Paul you did compare it to winning the lottery though. What was was all that stuff about intrade earlier in these comments?
Anyone look within the last 24 hours? Anyone paying attention to the trends?
"The National trend is kind of irrelevant. There are states Obama is guaranteed to win and states Romney is guaranteed to win. What matters now are the swing states, Ohio being one of them and Obama is favored 70/30 or so to win it."
Uh no. Right now as of 8:50 PM CST Romney is the intrade favorite in Ohio 54 to 41. Could this change? Of course, but the trend is not Paul's friend.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/states/
Wow. Just went to 54-51. Illiquid market. Regardless far from 70/30/
Matt P
Intrade is based on what people think is going to happen.
I have a great deal more confidence in folks like Nate Silver, scientists, reporting how actual voters are likely to vote based on polling.
Over trend, Obama has never been behind Romney…this is a pretty good indicator of how people are going to vote, if they vote.
If they choose not to vote then all bets are off, anything can happen.
Intrade is no more an indicator of the outcome than Las Vegas is for football games. The point spread in this instance is in the polls not the betting line. They still have to play the game.
I'm going to have to put you in the pro-Romney group though. This election isn't going to affect me.
No the election may not affect you but me criticizing your logic clearly does. You seem to worship nate silver. The guy is a good read but he has a model. It looks to be out of whack this time. This is social science not physics paul. There are assumptions he makes that are questionable. Others like Barone see this differently. How about clinton's pollster? http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/romney-s-surge.html
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