In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, an increase of 66,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 325,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 305,000.United States Department of Labor — Employment And Training Administration
Thursday, October 10, 2013
BLS — Initial unemployment claims increase to 374,000 this week from 308,000
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They don't think it will happen, or they know that a fed gov't "default" isn't the same as when some other (not currency sovereign) entity defaults. They know they'll get paid eventually, and that the default has nothing to do with "ability to pay".
But hey, if somebody wants to panic anyway and unload their securities at a deep discount, I'll take them.
I think the spending cut to the real economy is the really big deal here ...much bigger deal than bonds not being paid on time.
I think the spending cut to the real economy is the really big deal here ...much bigger deal than bonds not being paid on time.
This is likely how it will work out. Voluntary default would be surprising. But it could still happen and if extended would have a similar result to the shutdown by reducing G.
But the crazies that want to defund AFA are planning to keep the government hostage for as long as it takes to do so and are planning to dig in, led by Jim DeMint et al.
Previous shutdowns have been extended affairs, but in different economic climates. A prolonged shutdown would likely tip the scale downward into recession, which in the present environment would likely be debt deflationary.
Agreed. BTW meant to post this in response to the Carney story .. must have hit the wrong link. But probably relevant here too.
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