October 2013
| Date | Total_Withdrawals | UST_Redemp | $NFA_Inject | Notes | |
| 1-Oct | 55824 | 4962 | 50862 | 1st of month reg. large injection | |
| 2-Oct | 7440 | 858 | 6582 | down $5b | |
| 3-Oct | 143204 | 111330 | 31874 | Social Security | |
| 4-Oct | 7022 | 863 | 6159 | down $5b | |
| 5-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 6-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 7-Oct | 8136 | 857 | 7279 | down $5b | |
| 8-Oct | 7549 | 866 | 6683 | down $5b | |
| 9-Oct | 20305 | 870 | 19435 | Social Security | |
| 10-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 11-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 12-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 13-Oct | 0 | ||||
| 128874 | MTD_total |
6 comments:
Matt - I think I get your drift with the recurring operative line item of "down $5 billion". However, can you provide some commentary and color?
Hey Matt,
This data is very fascinating. Do you mind sharing the source? Thanks.
Ed, Justin,
I didnt have time for commentary last night...
Looks like we are down about 5b/day under this thing....
So if go thru next Thursday on this then we had 4 days last week, 5 this week, and 3 next week (Monday a holiday...) so that is 12 days down about 5b/day so around 60b will have been taken out this month that would have been there cet par...
and that is only thru next Thurs...
If they do the debt ceiling thing and keep it shut down, then this thing just keeps gasping along....
A quote from Bush II comes to mind:
"This sucker could go down!"
Justin we get this data from the Daily Treasury Statement... take the total withdrawals from the TGA and subtract the amount they use to just redeem previously issued Treasury securities and this results in the "net spending" for the UST for that day/month/year... cash basis.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html
Let the deficit take care of itself via the non-govt savings desires.. ie govt spends FIRST and THEN collects the taxes as per tax liabilities are created in the non-govt...
rsp,
Thanx Matt
I could be wrong, but I don't think it "gasps along" once we get to the start of November. It's cold turkey, isn't it? If every dollar out requires a dollar in, then column four sums to zero.
At that point, AD growth will rely entirely on credit growth (unlikely if chaos in UST market?) and other forms of 'dissaving.' Don't think retirees can jack their distributions up high enough to offset this...
Art,
No there are no revenues on this spreadsheet....
These numbers are from the RIGHT side of the DTS only...
This is the "spends first" part.... the right side of the DTS is the "spends first" and the left side is the "then collects the taxes/fees" part...
Neil has described this process as 'asynchronous' and I agree with that...
Hard to tell what they are really going to do, but if they just suspend the debt ceiling and do not pass a budget, they can issue all of the USTs they want to result in balances in the TGA, they will just have NO AUTHORITY to spend any of it other than any residual Budget Authority that the departments may have from previous fiscal years that they have not yet spent...
Which I imagine is a declining scenario...
To watch what ever they end up doing on the spending side, just look at the right side of the DTS...
rsp,
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