Chart below of leading government spending flow through the end of May compared on FYoY basis.
Not impressive on a FYoY basis.
FYoY through end of May we are behind by $54B while on a shorter term basis, two of the last three months have posted negative YoY comparisons with the third one a break-even YoY.
Quite a difference between the YoY growth in spending exhibited this year (negative) and the longer term trend exhibited for most of the last decade illustrated below:
9 comments:
:( Election year, I'd have thought the pork barrels would be rollin.'
Ryan it seems the Dems are just mailing it in these days...
GOP seems at least content to take a "muddle thru" economy (maybe even a negative GDP) into the fall mid-term elections.
I thought we would be seeing some decent YoY gains by this point in the FY but it is not materializing...
For June, our comparisons will be against the mandatory cuts and "debt ceiling" environment of last summer so we are hopeful for a decent June YoY.... we'll see...
rsp,
Dan,
Have you found a parallel chart of "Off-Budget" expenditures?
Government spending growth has averaged 7% annually since WWII, nearly 9% thru 1985 but dropping to 5% thereafter.
Since 2010 spending growth has been an anemic 0.6%.
Numbers based on the FGEXPND series.
Government remains in the top 5 sectors for layoffs in the Challenger Job Cut Report. I've no idea whether state, local or federal -- but whatever it is, revenues are up at all levels and there should be net-hiring, not layoff announcements at this point in the "recovery" from the financial shenanigan.
"Have you found a parallel chart of "Off-Budget" expenditures?"
Roger, I have one thats not quite up-to-date…
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/33741/debthist01z1.xls
Roger this is data right from the Treasury statement.... so it is a cash basis accounting of all the withdrawals from the TGA...
It therefore includes all on budget/off budget/supplementals, etc.... when the govt has actually debited its account at the Fed...
This is all the net USD balances that have been withdrawn from the US Treasury's account... like the "right side" of a cash basis Income Statement...
rsp,
Thanks Matt, thats why this data is so important. Its much more informative than the adjusted budget and deficit figures that people usually use. Off budget, on budget, we know it makes no difference!
10-4 Justin...
Roger see this wiki on the "cash" vs the "accrual" basis of accounting:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basis_of_accounting
I am tracking the US Treasury's net spending/withdrawals on a CASH basis here with these charts I put up monthly...
Other reports from other sources often represent an ACCRUAL basis...
Its "accounting" where CPA stands for 'Constant Pain in the Ass'...
;) rsp
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