Saturday, November 22, 2014

BBC News — Ukraine crisis: Lavrov warns over Russia 'regime change' goal

Western sanctions against Russia over its role in Ukraine are aimed at forcing regime change in Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says. 
Speaking to foreign policy advisers in Moscow, Mr Lavrov referred to calls for sanctions "that will destroy the economy and cause public protests". 
On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin said Moscow must guard against a "colour revolution".
BBC News
Ukraine crisis: Lavrov warns over Russia 'regime change' goal

Also

Reuters
Lavrov accuses West of seeking 'regime change' in Russia
Polina Devitt

China cannot afford to let regime change happen in Russia and won't.

Russia knows this.

Vineyard of the Saker
Observations on President Putin’s call upon US not to meddle in Russia affairs
Peter Koenig

13 comments:

PeterP said...

Regime change: laudable goal. Russia should leave its neighbors alone instead of acting out its inferiority complexes on them. Its every neighbor should be admitted to NATO so that they can escape this sorrow failed attempt at a civilization. It would be good for Russia itself as it would have to choose modernization, a road via emulating 19th century empires now closed. If Russia doesn't like the West, fine: let it emulate modern China instead of the early 20th century Japan.

Tom Hickey said...

Cruising toward WWIII with NATO, Japan and Taiwan vs. China and Russia

Tom Hickey said...

BTW, Taiwan is to China as Ukraine is to Russia, only more so, in that China claims Taiwan and has declared it is willing to fight for it should Taiwan declare independence. Russia is willing to let Ukraine be independent but has declared it will fight to protect ethnic Russians there and also to prevent NATO from expanding to its border.

US policy toward the China-Taiwan issue has been measured because the US doesn't want to fight a war with China, which would involve a land war in Asia that the US cannot win or, worse, a nuclear war that would make the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable.

But the US hawks seem OK with this in the case of the Ukraine-Russia. The Europeans and Brits should be worried if they are not, because this is the area that will bear the brunt of a war that will be at least tactical nuclear, since Russia knows it cannot defeat NATO in conventional war and has already declared that it will have to go nuclear, since that is in Russia's advantage.

There is also he complicating factor of the Bush doctrine of preemptive war, which means use of first strike. The Russian military is on high alert owing to this and at they indication of a US first strike in the works, they will strike first.

This is a very serious place to be, and totally unnecessarily. It's a no win for anyone other than the military-industrial complex that reaps the financial benefits.

PeterP said...

Tom, Rusia has no say in NATO expanding to its border. It is very simple: if any of its neighbors CHOOSE to join NATO ir will be at its border. Russia cen withdraw further if it offends its sensitivities that its neighbors choose their destiny. The seriousness of the situation is entirely Russia's doing, it still has a problem with non-vasal states next to it. It will have to learn and adapt to what a Soviet mind finds incomprehensible: peoples want to decide their own fate.

Tom Hickey said...

The say that have is in warning that this would mean war. It's up to NATO to figure if they are bluffing, to take the chance on a first strike, or to risk a tactical nuclear war in Europe.

Countries apply to join NATO and they have to meet certain conditions to be considered, and then they have to be accepted. Ukraine doesn't meet those conditions and won't be meeting them in the foreseeable future without massive injection from the US, UK and EZ, which is not in the cards. These countries aren't gong to pour tens of billions into Ukraine.

The German FM has already come out against Ukraine joining NATO.

German foreign minister speaks out against Ukraine joining NATO

The US neocons may be crazy enough to start hostilities in Europe, but the European leaders have enough problems now without a European war that could engulf them and their economies.

What is actually happening is that NATO is being weakened as Europeans find themselves at the mercy of US crazies. European leaders are already hearing this from their constituents, including business.

Moreover, it is driving Russia and China together, undercutting the US pivot to Asia since it now has to prepare for war on two fronts in Eurasia, while it is also heavily engaged in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Iran) and Central Asia (Obama just announced further US engagement in Afghanistan, reversing direction).

This is beginning to stretch the Empire, as even many on the right are coming out against the neocons, including figures as diverse as Henry Kissinger, Pat Buchanan, and Ron Paul.

Imperial overreach.

Putin gets this and he will put pressure on while also diplomatically telling European leaders that the US is putting them in an untenable place for its own advantage and their disadvantage. Bad timing for Europe too since they are buckling under economic pressure.

The geopolitical situation is trending toward less stability and predicability, with some wildcards in the deck, which is not a good direction to be heading for peace and prosperity.

PeterP said...

In other words they say they view it is their inalienable right to vasalize neighboring countries. Well, they can take this right and stick it, because it violates the right of said neighbors to choose their future. Russia's "rights" happen to violate everybody else's right a bit too often.

Is your argument that we should give Russia whatever it wants or it comes closer to China? Very scary. China will eat them alive. China actually has a much better plan: instead of imperial adventures it catches up with the West technologically, a path opposite to Russia's. Not sure if they need an aliance with crazy backwards KGBists. Once you start giving in to blackmail it never ends. Putin already thinks we are pussies and will rollover everytime he steals something.

Tom Hickey said...

Your position sums up the dilemma well. The West sees Russia as attempting to vassalize it, and Russia sees the West as attempting to vassalize it.

Recipe for war, and it will almost certainly be nuclear if it comes to that. The other alternatives is that Russia builds its empire as the West fears, or Russia is neoliberalized again through a color revolution. Or we all just cool down and let things work themselves out.

Impossible to say how things are going to unfold at this point because of the wild cards in the deck. Sort of like the onset of WWI.

Matt Franko said...

Personally I look at it as there were ethnic Russians in the Crimea and Ukraine and these people were under a threat from the non-ethnic Russians in these areas.. (neo-nazis, psychos, etc....)

so Putin had to do something to protect these ethnic Russians who although under threat, also didnt want to leave the area they were living and move to Russia... most are probably second generation or 3rd..

So I dont look at this as a big deal these areas are kind of backwater areas...

I think the Obama Admin is over-reacting to all of this...

The US right is focused on ISIS and the US southern border...

This Russia/Ukraine/Crimea stuff is all on Democrats imo....

rsp,

Bob said...

The idea that the crisis in Ukraine is really about regime change in Syria and Iran still has merit IMO.

Matt Franko said...

Could be pipeline related Bob... rsp

Bob said...

Pipelines, Cold War and apple pie.

Tom Hickey said...

What most people don't realize is that the competing interests in Syria also involve a pipeline route.

Geopolitics and geostrategy since WWI have largely been about control of energy resources.

PeterP said...

Laughable comment of the month: "Personally I look at it as there were ethnic Russians in the Crimea and Ukraine and these people were under a threat from the non-ethnic Russians in these areas.. (neo-nazis, psychos, etc....)"

There are not even made up stories to this effect, not to say true ones...