Thursday, August 27, 2015

I see the Dow trading back to the low, 17,000s, but not doing much after that

The U.S. stock market is in "recovery" after the irrational plunge of late last week/early this week. It's coming back as I said it would, however, I don't see the Dow going much above the low, 17,000s for now.

We're really going to have to wait until the new fiscal year and what Congress decides with respect to the debt ceiling. Failure to raise the debt ceiling will have very damaging consequences so this bounce back in the stock market could be the rally to sell if you are into shorting stocks (which I am not).

If they raise the debt ceiling and continue on the spending path that is forecast by the CBO (spending increases by $250b) then we should have another very decent year for the market.

Don't look at the deficit. It might even be a surplus in 2016. Then what are people going to say?

1 comment:

Bob said...

Google+ needs to refine its bot detection algorithm.