Friday, August 28, 2015

Tropical Update


Notice how our qualified and competent meteorologists have included the time domain in their analysis and resultant predictive path for the current tropical storm Erika:




9 comments:

Dan Kervick said...

Am I missing something?

Matt Franko said...

The time domain?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_domain

Predictive statements should include the time domain and then actual results can be compared against that predicted schedule...

Judgements can then be made as to the competency of the people/scientists making the predictions...

"We're going to have inflation .... some day!..." or "the dollar is going down... some day!" or "we're going to have a recession... some day!" or "a hurricane is going to hit Florida... some day!" doesn't cut it.

Ryan Harris said...

The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent ... that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. (FOMC Banter)

blah blah blah

Ryan Harris said...

Today wasn't the medium term either apparently because PCE core came in at .1%, so maybe medium term means next quarter, or next year or next decade.

Matt Franko said...

TS Erika will hit Florida over the medium term.... ;)

Matt Franko said...

Dan,

Ryan here gets it... I suspect Ryan is a technocrat like me...

A big part of the problem right now is we have ideologues masquerading as technocrats in the economics dept of the academe and in the economics punditry... technocrats typically want to see the time domain included and results recorded against it....

rsp,

Ryan Harris said...


In response to the inflation miss, Fed's Kocherlakota just hit the news wire to clarify, " says it will take several years to get to inflation target"


pffftttt. 99% of the time, the academic economists that work at the Fed and produce their model projections, revise back to what bond markets predicted. There is a reason that no one hires academic economists for real work, they are hacks and total cranks.

Tom Hickey said...

We are now in an era of a closed global economy from which no nation can decouple and some nations and blocs can be more influential than others. This makes a lot of nation-based macro analysis anachronistic. Large firms and investors buy this research.

When the US sneezes, Europe belches or China farts, the whole world is affected. Very few other than central banks and large financial firms like GS and Morgan Stanley have the resources to analyze this is detail in real time. Forget academic economists having the resources and ability to do it single-handedly.

Matt Franko said...

Right Tom the earth's global atmospheric dynamics have to be way less complicated to analyze and predict in real time than the economic inter-relationships between earths staggering number of 192 total separate nations.... c'mon man!

;)