Video and transcript. (Sophie Shevardnadze in the granddaughter of former USSR foreign minister and president of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze.)
Why Syria is complicated and there are no simple solutions.
Why Syria is complicated and there are no simple solutions.
“Regime-Change without State Collapse is Impossible in Syria,” Landis Interviewed by RT’s Sophie&Co
Sophie Shevardnadze interviews Joshua Landis, Director of the Center
for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor, University of Oklahoma
ht confusedponderer at Sic Semper Tyrannis
7 comments:
Partition of Syria might save lives but it won't be considered.
Bob said...
Partition of Syria might save lives but it won't be considered.
The idea of annexing Syrian territory has long been pushed by Turkey since the beginning of the Syrian conflict more than four years ago. Hawkish pundits and politicians in Washington have also been advocating safe zones or no-fly zones in Syria. But up to now, the Obama administration has baulked at that intervention owing to perceived military risks of large-scale commitment.
According to Erdogan, the White House seems to be finally warming to the idea of annexing Syrian territory. That concurs with the apparent U-turn by the Obama administration to put boots on the ground with the dispatch of special forces and the promise of more troops, as indicated by Carter. The stated purpose of these troops being sent to organise anti-IS local forces among Kurdish and Syrian Arab does not hold water. A recent report by the New York Times admitted that this local Kurd-Arab coalition was an American «invention» that «existed in name only».
Besides, such a US-supported ground coalition that bolstered Kurdish militia and their aspirations for a separatist state on the southern Turkish border would be anathema to the Erdogan regime in Ankara.
That Washington is now calculating on throwing its weight behind the Turkish plan to carve out Syrian territory may also account for the recent assignment of US F-15 fighter jets to Turkey’s southwest Incirlik NATO base. As other observers have noted, the F-15s are air-to-air combat planes. They would have no role in launching ground attacks supposedly against Islamic State militants. But the fighter jets would have a role in patrolling the skies over the would-be safe zones annexed by Turk and US ground forces. That would inevitably pit these US warplanes against Syrian and Russian aircraft.
Meanwhile, in southern Syria the Israelis appear to consulting with the Obama administration over their own annexation plans. The Times of Israel reported that during his White House meeting with Obama this week, Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu raised the issue of formally annexing the Golan Heights. The territory has been held by Israel since the 1967 war. Obama reportedly did not mention the matter publicly, but Netanyahu made it clear that he is looking for formal US recognition of Israel’s annexation, according to the Times of Israel.
Note that this de facto break-up of Syrian territory, in the north and south, is officially contrary to what US Secretary of State John Kerry said at the first Vienna summit two weeks ago. Kerry appeared then to agree with Russia’s position that Syria should remain a unified state. However, as argued here, the erosion of Syrian sovereign territory by Turkey and Israel, with US support, appears to be part of the military leverage that Washington is seeking to exert on Russia in order for Moscow to accede to American demands for political transition in Damascus.
http://nsnbc.me/2015/11/14/us-gambling-on-war-with-russia-in-syria/
Okay, I only considered what was in the OP transcript. Nevertheless, the last paragraph allows for partition to be given up if the Russians decide to dance. I'm not holding my breath.
Would ISIS exist if Iraq had been partitioned?
This is a very good piece of reporting. Non emotional and objective with no obvious bias. Moreover, it all makes sense and the details add up to a coherent big picture.
Contrast this with Western mainstream media reports. A jumble of incoherent factoids that appeal to emotions, but never stand together to make proper sense. Putin is showing how to win the proganda war as well as the real war. Whether Russia has sufficient resources to achieve their goals...who knows. But thus far, they are making our side look like chumps. If China puts enough weight behind Russia/Iran It's a very hard a slog for US/NATO. I can't read China well, escalating their involvement, would help them put the US on the back foot, but cede victory points to Russia.
Now there are efforts to silence RT and other largely objective Russian outlets, albeit they are fairly selective in their reporting scope. if RT closes for no valid reason, that is for me, one step too far down the road of Authoritarianism, if they win that battle, it kind of signifies they are losing the wider war.
Would ISIS exist?
ISIS was activated in Iraq by foreign agents. The same foreign agents would have activated it elsewhere if needed. Maybe it would be harder to find recruits.
Mind you, if the Western media showed the aftermath of a real Syrian army infantry assault, I don't think ISIS recruitment would be quite so jolly. Instead they focus on "Alluha Akhabar" clowning, beheadings and videos of special op's popping off tanks from 2 km. You might even think we are trying to encourage terrorists.
If Iraq had been partitioned, the Sunnis would have had autonomy over their territory. They would not have been subordinated to the demands of the Shia dominated government, which was the inevitable outcome of democracy.
Perhaps they would have remained as Baathists, and not thrown their lot in with the extremist elements that we see today.
I doubt that Sunnis who served in the Iraqi army are intimidated by the Syrian army. Frankly, Assad's forces were viewed for a long time as a bit of a joke. Granted, the civil war has changed that.
The Nazis employed PR which glamorized the realities of war - this did not reduce their combat effectiveness.
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