Saturday, April 16, 2016

Jason Smith — Angels dancing at the end of time

This should be considered some notes for a future blog post/paper. I've strung together a series of papers to form an argument. The basic idea is that if expectations far out in the future matter in your model, and you use a model where the actual future value enters (or at least the actual future model value -- model consistent expectations, e.g. rational expectations), then your model violates the central limit theorem (in the sense that it requires you to be able to invert the process). In order for the expected future value in the model to lead to a specific present state, you'd have to be able to distinguish which present distribution lead to the distribution of future expected values. However since a random walk derived from any of the distributions with the same well-defined mean and variance lead to a single normal distribution (universality of the normal distribution), this is impossible.…
Information Transfer Economics
Angels dancing at the end of time
Jason Smith

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