Thursday, May 19, 2016

Alastair Crooke — Putin Is Being Pushed to Abandon His Conciliatory Approach to the West and Prepare for War

In a recorded interview, Cohen notes that a section of the Russian leadership is showing signs of restlessness, focused on President Vladimir Putin’s leadership. We are not talking of street protesters. We are not talking coups against Putin — his popularity remains above 80 percent and he is not about to be displaced. But we are talking about serious pressure being applied to the president to come down from the high wire along which he has warily trod until now.
Putin carries, at one end of his balancing pole, the various elites more oriented toward the West and the “Washington Consensus“ and, at the pole’s other end, those concerned that Russia faces both a real military threat from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a hybrid geo-financial war as well. He is being pressed to come down on the side of the latter, and to pry the grip of the former from the levers of economic power that they still tightly hold.
In short, the issue coming to a head in the Kremlin is whether Russia is sufficiently prepared for further Western efforts to ensure it does not impede or rival American hegemony. Can Russia sustain a geo-financial assault, if one were to be launched? And is such a threat real or mere Western posturing for other ends?
What is so important is that if these events are misread in the West, which is already primed to see any Russian defensive act as offensive and aggressive, the ground will already have been laid for escalation.…
The real threat of regime change in Russia is the generals taking over.
What is this all about? For some time there have been indications that a key faction within the Kremlin, one that very loosely might be termed “nationalist,” has become deeply disenchanted with Putin’s toleration of the Washington Consensus and its adherents at the Russian central bank and in other pivotal economic posts. The nationalists want them purged, along with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s perceived Western-friendly government. Putin may be highly popular, but Medvedev’s government is not. The government’s economic policy is being criticized. The opposing faction wants to see an immediate mobilization of the military and the economy for war, conventional or hybrid. This is not about wanting Putin ousted; it is about pushing him to wield the knife — and to cut deeply.
But if Putin doesn't act decisively soon, he only has so much rope before the military steps in to defend national security. If he chooses the liberals, he is likely replaced. If he doesn't chooses the nationalists, he will survive a commander-in-chief.

However, a Trump presidency could change this dynamic and take the pressure off Putin and the Russian general staff.
The extraordinary bitterness and emotional outrage with which the American establishment has reacted to Donald Trump’s probable nomination as a presidential candidate suggests that the U.S. establishment is far from having given up on the Wolfowitz doctrine.…
But Trigger Happy Hillary's finger is just itching.

These are just some high points. The whole thing is worth a read. Your life may depend on it.
The World Post
Putin Is Being Pushed to Abandon His Conciliatory Approach to the West and Prepare for War
Alastair Crooke

3 comments:

Bob said...

Nice try Tom, but I still wouldn't vote for Trump.

Tom Hickey said...

With Trump's advocacy of torture, killing families of alleged terrorists, openness to use nukes neither will I. Too psychopathic bordering on sociopathic for me. His short list for SCOTUS picks is also a deal breaker.

So far, the Green Party most accurately reflects my political stance.

MRW said...

Worthwhile to listen to Stephen Cohen’s interview:
https://audioboom.com/boos/4580137-nato-escalates-russia-fulminates-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestaccord-com?t=0