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Yep. Hillary is going to get her clock cleaned.
Recall the earlier headlines: Ted Cruz Has Been 'Called & Anointed' By God To Be The Next President.Apparently God has changed his mind?
That would be Ted "Carpet Bomber" Cruz. Yes, God had second thoughts.
I believe Trump will be much better for the ordinary American than Hillary.
Norman....what if Bernie becomes Dem Nominee....polls show he would beat Trump by a large margin.
Planet Earth to all my MNE friends: Hillary will wipe the floor with him. It won't be a McGovern-style slaughter, but it won't be far off. Trump will take Texas, Florida and a few other southern states. If he's lucky he may pick up a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania. That's it. Hillary takes approximately 35 to 40 states and Trump 10 to 15. All that unnecessarily stupid shit he's said over the past year or so is going to come back and haunt him. The great mass of liberal Republicans are much closer to a rightwing Democrat like Hillary than someone like Trump. And that may not be his worst problem. Many conservative Republicans think of Trump as a "New York liberal" and so just may stay at home rather than hold their noses and vote for the Republican candidate. Ted Cruz's supporters hate Trump with a passion. It also doesn't help that a significant amount of very powerful establishment Republicans would rather see anybody but Trump take the White House. Trump's made too many unnecessary enemies along the way and now they're going to pay him back. And "unnecessary" is the word to remember when talking about Trump. He could have won the nomination AND the presidency at a canter without making all these unnecessary enemies, making all these unnecessary incendiary comments and gaffes, but he's too much in love with himself to do that. But then again, Trump has surprised everybody thus far. So he just may do it in the general election. It's a year for surprises...
Yeah John he is really going to be hurting without Mitt 47% Romney and Paul Wash the dishes at the soup kitchen when they are already clean Ryan out there slinging for him....
Also dont forget Hillary could get a felony indictment and have to drop out and Bernie could swoop in for the Dems...
Matt,Leaving aside the liberal GOPers, as far as the Republican establishment goes I don't believe it's some sort of bonus or a boon to the Trump campaign that Romney, Graham, Cruz, Rubio, Jeb and heaven knows how many other absolutely detest him and would rather have anybody but Trump. I don't live in the US, but the American news I watch here in the UK suggests that Trump has made life inordinately difficult for himself in the way he's insulted and abused the GOP establishment. Then again, it may work out for him that he's "anti-establishment". My point is that why make enemies when you don't need to? As I said, Trump could have strolled into the White House. So why fight a nasty and bitter war against your own party when you could instead make nice? It's not as if he's not going to need these people if he ever makes it to the White House. It's evidence of a very strange mentality at work. As for Bernie, he's going nowhere. Hillary's going to be the Democratic nominee. She'll be POTUS unless something pretty nasty comes out. Those emails have still some legs in them. Libya still has the potential to kneecap Hillary and win the White House by default for Trump. The only way Trump's going to win is if Hillary's campaign is decapitated by something entirely unexpected. I say unexpected because even if the media get hold of something that will end Hillary's campaign, will they broadcast it? Even Murdoch hates Trump, so if Fox won't do the dirty, will the NYT, WaPo, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC? And the media angle is going to be interesting in this election. The major networks and papers are not going to give Trump a fair shot. They'll be explicitly and implicitly pro-Hillary. They'll take any and every opportunity to belittle and traduce Trump, justifiable or not.
John its the "you're fired!" mentality ... he knew he had to get rid of those people (and if he wins, I expect him to go on a witch hunt to root out all of those remaining in Senate and House who have that same stink on them...)I may look at it like Trump I viewed those guys basically incapable of ever winning a national election again with how they were perceived by what I call the "socio-economic justice cohort" among US voters who imo are the true swing voters...You have to appeal to this cohort of voters enough to get you over 51%... Romney had no credibility with this cohort once the 47% comments were made it was over right there I knew and I think Trump did too... even if Ryan went to the soup kitchen and showed up late and STILL washed the already clean dishes....It might play out right in New York... I dont see how Dems can win if GOP takes New York...
Trump has a decent shot at capturing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio. Florida is certainly a Trump win possibility . Not sure about California and New York. This by no means is a Clinton slam dunk. And the whole Blue Wall thing could be obliterated with Trump.I think Trump would have a more difficult fight with Sanders than he would with Clinton. Her negatives rival his, and the putrid baggage of hers that Trump will exploit effectively is virtually endless.Six months is an eternity in politics, and so much can happen from now to election day. Trump is a loose cannon so he might just say something so crazy--even for him--that causes self immolation. Clinton might be indicted or Trump might label her with zingers the press has ignored, which will cause her to implode with swing voters.At any rate, this is going to be the most entertaining presidential election ever. Can't wait for the fireworks.
Hillary will lose against "the master", Trump is going to beat her like a circus monkey. I don't know if he is going to be a good prersident or better president than the others but one thing for sure, Trump is a master at this game called the campaign. Hillary is an amateur. The slogan she picked LOVE TRUMPS HATE, Well, does she love Trump? Trump hates war, unfair trade, terrorism etc, same as everyone else. She has amateurs in her team. Trump will play the women's card against her: she is a sexist hiding behind political correctness. Who is really standing up for women? Who was the one risking to be labeled as racist because he was so much against rape? Clinton will lose, get used to Trump being the next president.
"I think Trump would have a more difficult fight with Sanders than he would with Clinton."For sure...Kristjan wrt the woman card, you should have seen his speech last night... flanked by all REEEEEEALLY SHARP looking females in his family...
Another thing to consider is that many young Sanders supporters will not vote for Clinton. They'll just sit out the election.Trump will also snatch up virtually 100% of the recalcitrant worker vote, which is substantial in this election cycle.And like Matt said above, if Trump takes NY it's game over. But he certainly doesn't need NY to win.
Who will Trump choose for VP?
One of the key factors in a presidential campaign is the candidates choice of "handlers" and political operatives. HRC arguably lost to Obama owing to her reliance on Mark Penn and Obama's choosing David Axelrod and David Plouffe.Trump's advisers are Roger Stone and Paul Manafort. Check them out if not familiar.
Malmo: "Another thing to consider is that many young Sanders supporters will not vote for Clinton. They'll just sit out the election."That's a very distinct possibility. But never underestimate the stupidity and cowardice of liberals and the hypnotic effect of the "lesser evil". That may balance out the liberal Republicans who may not decide to vote for Trump, or may jump over to Hillary. Trump needs the liberal Republicans, so he better think carefully before, as you perfectly put it, "say something so crazy--even for him--that causes self immolation".As you say, six months is a very long time and so a lot of things can change in Trump's favour, but the latest polling I've seen is that Trump does very badly with women, blacks and hispanics. The black population were energised by that great charlatan Obama. Will they come out for Clinton? Trump is going to have to turn the women vote around and quickly. Hispanics, I believe, are predominantly Democrats and Trump's rhetoric about Mexicans may have decided that vote already and there is no turning back. It's likely for the solid Democratic working class vote to fracture a little. For a majority of it to go over to Trump doesn't seem likely, but crazier things have happened in politics. Trump's biggest problem is how he's viewed by women. To turn that around is daunting, to say the least. Trump has no more than a slim chance if he can keep his mouth shut and talk about nothing but jobs, healthcare and social security. That's what the great working and middle class of Americans are primarily concerned with. We're now going to see if Trump is as politically adroit as his supporters claim, that he says what he needs to say to get the nomination, that he's much more nuanced than he seems, that he's this Machiavellian manipulator, etc, etc. At least Trump is going to give Hillary the verbal kicking of a lifetime! Trump should watch out for Hillary's penchant for turning on the tears for political effect when things start to go badly.
VP? If he has any sense he'll choose a woman, obviously not Fiorina, or a hispanic, obviously not Cruz or Rubio!
"Who will Trump choose for VP?"Will he balance the ticket by going left or right of himself? Will he pick a female or ethnic minority? He said he's going with a seasoned politician, or at least a DC politician. I've heard rumbling that Rubio is on his short list.
John,You're probably right about Rubio. Not sure they are congruous when it comes to immigration. Christie is interesting. He's a terrific debater and certainly to the left of Trump. Can't imagine him going with Carson. Can't come up with any viable Republican women for him either. But the more I think about it the more I think he's going with a woman to repair his image on that front. Any ideas who?
Tom,Roger Stone is bonkers: he wrote a book that claims LBJ was behind the assassination of Kennedy. He also has a gigantic tattoo of Nixon on his back. Why would Trump have a man who believes LBJ assassinated JFK as one of his advisors? Manafort has had a lot of very shady dealings in his past. Again, of all the political advisors why choose a man whose taken money from Jonas Savimbi, Ferdinand Marcos and heaven knows what other dictators?
Right, John, these are low-life, which is a euphemism in this case. It's going to be an extremely dirty campaign.
Washington Post has Joni Ernst on his short list. Not sure she'd even be interested, but she could easily blunt the woman problem he's facing.
Malmo, I completely forgot about Christie! You know, Christie may have bowed out as early as he did only because he was promised the VP ticket. I always thought Christie was the best candidate in the GOP field. I still find it strange that he didn't get much support. He'd make a good choice for VP. You're right, he is a very good debater. In terms of factual argument, which doesn't seem to mean much these days, he was by far the best of the nominees, and far, far better than Trump. Everyone goes on about Cruz and Rubio, but Christie was a far better debater than them. He was relatively sane too, like Kasich. It may be harsh to say, but Christie's weight can't have helped. If Trump does choose a woman, he better not choose someone like Sarah Palin, say a Michele Bachmann. He really has to be smart and come up with someone who is far more popular than himself, so much so that people will want him to keel over and die after taking the oath of office. Any black women Republicans with name recognition in the House or the Senate?
Malmo: "He said he's going with a seasoned politician, or at least a DC politician. I've heard rumbling that Rubio is on his short list."IMO, that would be a seriously bad choice. Rubio is far too rightwing to bring over the voters Trump needs. He needs someone who's serious but moderate, likeable but not lightweight. Trump needs someone who is going to resonate with working class voters, not an ideologue who scares people shitless with his talk about medicare and social security. In any case, isn't Rubio for a path to citizenship for all the undocumented workers?
This race will be light years away from the primaries. Shit is going to get real now. Those with the best organizations, and the most disciplined staff will win. That is Hillary and the democrats, like it or not. Trump has many significant hurdles to overcome. In the primary, he could stand on stage and do his WWE routine. That will not play now. Can he overcome his obvious psychological deficiencies and take on the democratic juggernaut? I doubt it, but we will see. If he can, then he can reinvent himself and be a great president. If he continues as he is, and past history indicates not only will he continue as he is, he will overreach (Trump Airlines) he will lose big. Don't let your hatred of Hillary blind you. She is a formidable opponent, and she has been preparing for this her whole life.
Washington Post has Joni Ernst on his short list.Joni Ernst is the Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachman replacement. Her senate-run campaign handlers actually had to tell her not to speak to the press and not say anything other than remarks prepared for her.
Any black women Republicans with name recognition in the House or the Senate?Mia Love in the unicorn but has not name recognition.
I doubt that Trump will consider anyone that he has not been close to and trusts, not only for VP but other key positions.For example, he has known political operatives Roger Stone and Paul Manafort for a long time.
Tom, I am not sure anyone else wants to work with him. Think about it. If you want a career in the Republican Party, do you risk getting on board with this guy? The empire will strike back at some point. Trumps winning now, but he will eventually be knocked off his horse, and when he does, the jackals will pounce. And they won't forget who was disloyal.
Maybe Dennis Hastert? oh..... wait.....
am not sure anyone else wants to work with him. Think about it. If you want a career in the Republican Party, do you risk getting on board with this guy? The empire will strike back at some point. Trumps winning now, but he will eventually be knocked off his horse, and when he does, the jackals will pounce. And they won't forget who was disloyal.This is why the GOP is in deep crisis. It the establishment goes along with Trump rule, their control of the game is over. If they oppose and refuse to cooperate, the party is serious weaken and threatened with disintegtating into warring constituencies. The same thing is happening in the Democratic Party but less visibly at this junction. The Clintons are notorious for shunning, and those that went with Bernie will be shut out. This will result in a party dominated by New Democrats that progressives that identify as Democrats will be shut out of.There are some new political alignments coming to US politics, and it is going to be reflected in the decline of the Boomers in prominence and the rise of the Millennials to power.
Trump has been around for a long while and has many friends and acquaintances. It's relatively certain he has been positioning himself behind the scenes for some time. For example, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort didn't just appear as key advisers and operatives. These guys are higher level at what they do than Karl Rove, and Trump has cultivated a relationship with them over the years. Turns out that Chris Christie is old buddies with Trump, too. We can assume there are many others he can tap and rely on.
There is no doubt that Trump is an insider Tom, I never bought his outsider status for one minute. However, he is also considered a joke and a rube by many of the elites that make up the party. Trump has also removed the false mask of respectability from the Republican platform on race, women, and immigration. Trump says out loud the things the elites say in private, and they hate him for it. They also don't like all the working class empowerment that has been going on in both the Trump and Sanders campaign. They don't mind when the working class votes against their interest, but they hate it when they vote for their interests. Trump, and Sanders, are dangerous because they could mobilize large groups of people to action. They both have to be stopped.Let's not forget that establishment power does not sit back and simply allow their power to be taken. Too much is at stake. The establishment has many options, including allowing Hillary to win, and regrouping for the next race in four years when Paul Ryan is ready to run.
I think this election is a lot simpler than past others to divine. It's Anti Establishment, Anti Establishment, Anti Establishment. Hillary is the ultimate Establishment hack. Trump is the ultimate Anti Establishment maverick. If you add all the Sanders, Cruz and Trump votes you're at 28 million. Hillary is at 12 million. Thus roughly 70% are non establishment. So far in early polling, Clinton and Trump are neck and neck. Quite simply if the anti theme continues, and I've no reason to think it's going away, this election is looking good for Trump--popular vote wise, that is. Electoral college wise is where the rubber meets the road, but to be sure, many states are in play for Trump that were not in play for Romney. Ohio, Pa and Michigan are all in play for Trump, which is a 54 electoral swing from 2012. Florida could easily go Trump, adding 29 more, bringing us to an 83 vote swing from 2012. That's not to mention Illinois, Iowa or Wisconsin or NY among others out west. Thus, this is far from a Clinton slam dunk.
...all Trump needs is a 64 electoral vote swing to win relative to 2012.
Dave,Even the NYT ad nauseum says Trump has never been a political insider, especially in Manhattan, so I'm not sure where you got that from.
Agreed, it's no slam dunk for Clinton. In fact, if Trump can make peace with the establishment, and tone down the rhetoric, he might convince enough people to give him a chance. But if he does that, he's not Trump. He's not the ultimate deal maker, the winner who gets his opponents to cave and give him everything he wants and more. I have to think these are significant hurdles for him to climb, hurdles his opponent doesn't have to worry about.
Malmo, no one gets the kind of media coverage he gets without being an insider. He is a member of the 1 percent club. Sanders gets none of the coverage Trump gets, and that's because he is the closest thing to an outsider we have in this election.
NYT is talking political insider, Beltway or NYC style. There's a significant qualitative difference.
Dave: "If you want a career in the Republican Party, do you risk getting on board with this guy? The empire will strike back at some point. Trumps winning now, but he will eventually be knocked off his horse, and when he does, the jackals will pounce. And they won't forget who was disloyal."That's a very good point, but there may be enough politicians who think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity and take the risk. But it does therefore mean that the bigger beasts of the GOP, who are in it for the long term and want the party's policies to stay as they are, will stay well clear of Trump. But in that case, what's Christie's game? Has Christie given up all hope of the top job? Anyway, any Trump VP will have even less responsibility than the position already provides unless it's Christie. Either he ends up with a nobody or someone willing to take a chance that Trump can pull it off, which again sounds like Christie. Although the evidence suggests Christie, he wouldn't want such a lowly job when he could be, say, Secretary of State, or would he? The other thing to remember is that for Trump he'll never run for the presidency again. If he fails, he'll be a laughing stock, and so will his VP running mate. That again lessens the numbers for VP. As Tom says about the roles Stone and Manafort have, this is going to be the nastiest, dirtiest and most bruising election ever. You can't say Hillary doesn't deserve it.
Good point Malmo. We will see down the road of that remains the case.
John, I think Christie is a vindictive sob, and he is supporting Trump to get back at everyone who sold him out over the bridge incident, and his failed campaign. I am predicting he will not be in Trumps administration, if there is one. He is happy just watching all his enemies suffer.
...all Trump needs is a 64 electoral vote swing to win relative to 2012.Right. The political operatives think in terms of electoral votes, counties, and databases. National polling has little to do with the outcome from this POV.
BTW, Kasich is now out. Time for the healing to begin :)
Let the games begin.
Even the NYT ad nauseum says Trump has never been a political insider, especially in Manhattan, so I'm not sure where you got that from.It's true that Trump has never been a "political insider" strictly speaking. But all American oligarchs are political insiders in the sense that they run the place through donations and the access and influence that brings, as Trump himself has said.
Tom that's what I meant as well. Buying political influence, and media attention.
Tom that's what I meant as well. Buying political influence, and media attention.Right. The American myth is that those who own the country acquired it through merit ("hard work") rather than influence (corruption) while the Russian and Chinese oligarchs all became wealthy through corruption based on government insider influence.Oh, and Trump is also in the casino business, which is mob-infested. So he has friends on both sides of the fence.
Sticking to the primary players, Clinton and Trump, Clinton, an Establishment insider, with broad and powerful tentacles has few peers. Trump in no way has the depth and breathe of influence that Hillary has, which is what I and the NYT is getting at.
..are getting at.
Tom great points about how oligarchs from Russia and China are portrayed versus their American counterparts. And Trump has many mob connections. This has been documented.
Dave: "Christie is a vindictive sob..He is happy just watching all his enemies suffer."Now that does make a lot of sense. After all he looked very uncomfortable endorsing Trump. Politics is full of "vindictive sobs", so why should Christie be immune to this all too human need for revenge?
Bernie played patty cakes with hrc, didn't touch the Clinton foundation/weapons deals at all. Trump will take the gloves off. We will see every dirty thing the Clintons have ever done and it will be glorious.
I'm going to go out on a limb, and I may be wrong, but what if Trump brings up some of the right wing conspiracy theories of the 1990 s like Vince Foster Being murdered. Would we see the first libel suit in the history of a presidential campaign?
I guarantee you he'll bring up Bill's sexual harassment of women and Hillary's statement that all accusations of harassment should be believed (except apparently Bill's). That's a zinger by itself that will help significantly cook her goose.He's also going to be all over her email scandal, and unlike the wussy Sanders, the MSM, Trey Gowdy and congress, tear her a new one.
Interesting quote. The empire strikes back“If we nominate Trump, [the party] is lost beyond this cycle. I think we lose women for a generation, in big numbers,” said Katie Packer, who served as Romney’s deputy campaign manager and now leads Our Principles super PAC, which spent $10 million in an effort to stop Trump.“There’s a feeling among Republican women that I talk to that the people who would nominate this guy don’t have any real respect for us as women — especially professional women. They would rather see us in a “Mad Men” era, where women knew their place and catered to their husband, cooked dinner and met their sexual obligations and didn’t have any other role in society. And there are other people who are supporting him because the guy’s a blatant racist and they identify with that.“So there’s a sense that, if this is who my party is, I don’t really identify with it anymore.”Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/republicans-clinton-trump-indiana-222778#ixzz47inZ7WH4 Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
In all seriousness I think Trump can stick with issues alone, especially where they differ, and that would be a winning strategy that largely avoids the gutter.
Since I loathe the Republican Party, one can only hope it's lost forever. But in reality it's likely to be the Romney's and the neocons within it that are going bye bye. Still, I wouldn't put it past these imbeciles to crash Trump's party at the Convention.
Since I loathe the Republican Party, one can only hope it's lost forever. But in reality it's likely to be the Romney's and the neocons within it that are going bye bye. The problem for the GOP is those are the people with the munnie. Trump is doing well because he is self-financed. "They" are not supporting him.So either the moneyed establishment regains control of the GOP or the GOP becomes a populist party that only nominated billionaires who can self-finance.It's too early to tell he outcome of the battle for the "heart and soul" of the GOP, but it is likely to b a battle royale, unless Trump pulls an Obama and turns out to be an establishment plant.
Tom,Don't you get the feeling something crazy is going to happen at the Convention from the establishment malcontents? I sure do.
Don't you get the feeling something crazy is going to happen at the Convention from the establishment malcontents? I sure do.We know from the public comments of some those upset that they at least say they are planning on it. Whether they can do anything significant remains to be seen.Trump and his people will be working to convince them that the price will be high if they try.
Maybe these quotes will answer your question:McCain 08 Chief Campaign Strategist, Steve Schmidt:Republicans need to ask whether they love their country more than their party.Conservative Blogger, Matt Walsh:Goodbye, Republican Party.Mark Salter, GOP strategist:The GOP is going to nominate for President a guy who reads the National Enquirer and thinks it's on the level. I'm with her.Red state commenter:Because of ignorant, low info, gullible morons, the best chance in freaking years to get a true principled conservative is blown. And this opportunity was wasted with the help of Fox News, Ben Carson, Sarah Dingbat Palin, faux Christian Robert Jeffress et al. Not to mention some who flat out stayed in the race too long...National Reviews Charles CW Cook:Madam PresidentI think they will use a variety of strategies, but the biggest is to concede the election to Hillary, and reorganize the party. Trumps wing will split into a populist pseudo Conservative party. The GOP is dead. And I couldn't be happier.
Good, next on the line should be the Democratic party.
I think, for the American people, the choice between H. & T. is a choice between a rock and a hard place. It’s interesting that the American people have chosen to navigate this strait. Around the world, we have (to date) the best elements of the monarchical, democratic, totalitarian, and communistic systems to choose from, supported by technology, to fashion a new world not based on the old sectarian interests. However, this in itself needs a new and realistic foundation. China indicates through its proposed trade routes an opportunity for cooperation and expansion, and the US could light that way if it had the best interests of Europe and its own people at heart; the Russians would happily help to see these efforts linked and could then tend safely to the task of assistance towards a modern education for the people of the ‘-Stans’, and its own internal affairs. I remember a survey where Americans were asked where Timor was – the speculation was astonishing. The real question is: - how long will the American people stick their head in the sand, and permit its leadership to act aggressively and predatorily in the world, motivated by greed and power, without maturity, and without accepting responsibility? It is not global governance which is required; it is a global acceptance of humanity. The essential human nature is to cooperate – that’s how we evolved. For me, the key to this is valuing the human being, the miracle of human existence in a delightfully quantum universe, above all else. And for this, the human being needs to understand themselves, what Peace actually is. Hence Socrates: ‘Know Thyself’. There is your pivot to everything else.Hence the human being needs to become conscious; not as an American, Russian, or Chinese etc.’ but as a human being that can recognise themselves not only in themselves, but in each other. If you see yourself in another, you talk to that person, find things in common, make a connection and help each other through. Friendliness and generosity, real respect, curiosity, feels good to a human being. It has wonderful consequences. Understanding that the evolution of the whole has always been through the cooperation and sensitivity of the parts to one another. The common sense arises through common experience, and the one foundational experience that is common to all of humanity is the Self (but we have lost touch). We do not understand the Self anymore.I would not vote for a H. or a T. I have to confess the wisdom of the Australian people would summarily dismiss both H. & T. as ‘wankas’ – and on the sidelines, I quietly hope the American public do so too. We do have a convict history. I would vote for a human because we humans have a 200,000 year track record. That is the real rock and hard place – they are both within us all: one has substance, permanence, and incredible potential - the other is mists, vapour, bondage, never-ending farce and fiasco. A human being is something with choice, and we choose, every moment of every day.
"Hence the human being needs to become conscious; not as an American, Russian, or Chinese etc.’ but as a human being that can recognise themselves not only in themselves, but in each other. If you see yourself in another, you talk to that person, find things in common, make a connection and help each other through. Friendliness and generosity, real respect, curiosity, feels good to a human being. It has wonderful consequences. Understanding that the evolution of the whole has always been through the cooperation and sensitivity of the parts to one another. The common sense arises through common experience, and the one foundational experience that is common to all of humanity is the Self (but we have lost touch). We do not understand the Self anymore."Great quote. I couldn't agree more. The best thing that could happen to the world is for Americans to grow up and stop blaming other people for the problems that we ourselves have created. To be humble and recogognize both what is great about our country, but also what is evil and needs to be addressed and corrected. The American Presidential Election, especially this year, strikes me as an exercise in magical, once upon a time thinking. This childish, uncritical attitude will lead to great suffering. At some point the rest of the world is going to figure out how to go on without us if we don't wake up and grow up.
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