An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Tom their terms of trade are going to have a hard time getting back to where they were if oil stays in the $40's...US oil rig counts are still increasing albeit moderately even here in the $40s... steel price is still in the toilet... etc...
their terms of trade are going to have a hard time getting back to where they were if oil stays in the $40's...That's a mixed blessing. They realize they have to remedy Dutch disease and are looking to build a more resilient and self-sufficient (although not autarkic) nation.Through export substitution just like import substitution.Russia is working to move away from an extraction-based export sector toward a more balanced export sector that is reliant not only on extraction but also agriculture, manufacturing, and digital technology. This has been under development for several years.Russian agriculture is now rolling. Russia is close to being pretty much self-sufficient in food, and Russia was recently the #1 wheat exporter. Russia is also ramping up the arms trade and now has 25% of the global market, second only to the US.Russia is basically at the level of other large emerging countries like China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia. This means that rapid growth is possible with the right management. Russia has the land, natural resources, and human resources to make it happen. What Russia lacks is people. This is both an asset and a liability. It's population is small relative to geographical size, which is a liability. But most other emerging countries have a surplus of people that is hold them back, which is a bigger liability for them. Russia doesn't have this problem and that is an asset.
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