Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Pepe Escobar — While Beijing and Manila Talk, Washington Spoiling for a Fight

Escobar sees the that of US-China conflict as being immanent rather than longer term. The window of opportunity for Washington is closing fast and will be gone by about 2025. China now apparently feels strong enough to cross redlines declared by the US — after the US crossed redlines declared by China.

Estimates like this one are difficult to make, however, since no one really knows how fast the Chinese military is ramping up and what is in the pipeline.

In addition, swarming is an integral aspect of Chinese strategy going back to the Korean War. The US is at a disadvantage logistically, with its battle and supply line extended far from US territory. The US has superior defense capacity on its ship, but what happens when the puppy runs out at sea during battle and the Chinese missiles keep coming in force? The Chinese don't necessarily need superior weapons but rely on dominating numerically with more staying power.

This also raises the nuclear question since the most effective weapon against a US carrier group is a tactical nuclear weapon. Should China decide to resort to that, and it is hardly out of the question if China perceived itself threatened existentially, warfare will be changed forever.

While Beijing and Manila Talk, Washington Spoiling for a Fight
Pepe Escobar

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