One of the the most important things I learned while getting my degree in economics is that economies are driven by psychology. If people expect tomorrow to be better than today, they make investments. If they think things are in decline, they wait it out, and that lack of investment makes things decline further. Psychology rules. Almost everything else is just scenery.Scott Adams' Blog
Remember, capitalism is a failure engine. Most businesses eventually fail, but employees get paid while it is happening. You can do a lot of things wrong with your economy and still find a way to fail forward. But the one thing you can’t get wrong is the psychology. That’s a killer.
If you remember your recent history, a global recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009, at least in the United States. See my blog post that accurately predicted the end of the recession in the U.S. in January of 2009, based on psychology alone.
That’s the same sort of filter I’m using to predict Trump’s progress in the presidential election. The filter assumes psychology is the best variable for predicting the election outcome. The best persuader will win. No one cares about facts and policies. We just pretend we do.…
Check Out my Sulley Prediction from 2009
Scott Adams, created of Dilbert