George Beebe — Russia’s Role in the US Elections: The Case for Caution

An old CIA Russia hand says, not so fast – have you considered all the alternatives? "Plausible" is not good enough in critical situations.

The temptation to regard a piece of evidence as diagnostic when in fact it is consistent with multiple explanations is a type of “confirmation bias” – the tendency to see what we expect to see – to which all humans are prone.

The National Interest
Russia’s Role in the US Elections: The Case for Caution

George Beebe | President of BehaviorMatrix LLC, a text analytics company and formerly chief of Russia analysis at the CIA and special advisor to Vice President Cheney on Russia and the Former Soviet Union