Thursday, July 6, 2017

John Helmer — How the Russian Economy Looks if You Aren’t Wearing Nato Night-Fighting Goggles

John Helmer is less optimistic than Jon Hellevig. But Hellevig is in the business of analysis and Helmer is not. The reputational risk therefore falls on Hellevig. Moreover, Hellevig has an organization (Awara) behind him. One would have to dispute Awara's number specifically.

Dances with Bears
John Helmer


Dan Lynch said...

Sergei Glazyev is obvious, but he is window-dressing in the Kremlin wall. Not one of his policy recommendations has been adopted, nor even endorsed in public by the president.

That was my impression as well. Glazyev is often trotted out as an example of progressive Russian thinking, but the people who run Russia do not seem to listen to Glazyev.

Russia has the lowest level of imports (as a share of the GDP) of all major countries… Russia’s very low levels of imports in the global comparison obviously signifies that Russia produces domestically a much higher share of all that it consumes (and invests), this in turn means that the economy is superbly diversified contrary to the claims of the failed experts and policymakers. In fact, it is the most self-sufficient and diversified economy in the world.

So much for "imports are real benefits and exports are real costs." There is a lot to be said for self-sufficiency.

Thank you for posting this, Tom.

Neil Wilson said...

"There is a lot to be said for self-sufficiency."

You can be self-sufficient and have lots of imports. That way your population has a higher standard of living than they otherwise would have. That is the context of 'imports are real benefits' line (in the context of full domestic employment and 'imports are leakages'). Don't take it out of context.

If you have needed imports you'd better have diversity of supply with sufficient slack to handle sanctions from one supplier and diversity of exports to cover if there is a drop off in demand (including for your savings).

The arguments against autarky are the ones that try and create highly coupled nations - so that the governments of those nations cannot change direction significantly.

GLH said...

Imports are real benefits and exports are real costs for neoliberal banksters. But for labor imports are lost jobs and cheap wages.