Tim Duy — This Expansion Will End in a Fizzle, Not a Bang

The Fed is growing increasingly concerned that this expansion will end like the last two, with a collapse in asset prices that brings down the economy. That concern will lead the central bank down the path of excessive tightening. Worse, that logic misses a key point. In both of the last two cycles, there was a sizable imbalance in the economy that extended beyond financial assets themselves. So far, the current environment lacks such an imbalance. That suggests the expansion ends with more of a fizzle than a bang....

The central point is this: High asset prices alone do not imply that a fall in those prices will bring the economy down. Those asset prices need to be linked in a very tangible way to a fairly significant and widespread imbalance in the economy for their decline to bring about a broader economy collapse....

Bloomberg View — Opinion
This Expansion Will End in a Fizzle, Not a Bang

Tim Duy | Director of Undergraduate Studies of the Department of Economics at the University of Oregon, the Director of the Oregon Economic Forum, and blogger at Tim Duy's Fed Watch