Monday, November 16, 2020

The Grand New Party — Joel Kotkin

While this is ostensibly political, it is also important for the demographics, which now seem to be shifting. This will have far-reaching implications if it develops into a trend, which I suspect it will.
The working class did poorly under former President Barack Obama, as well as his gentry Republican predecessors, while their incomes rose during Trump’s brief presidency before COVID-19. This may explain why even with the amiable Irishman Joe Biden atop the ticket, the Democratic brand is “not good” among working-class voters, as lamented by Rep. Tim Ryan who represents hardscrabble Youngstown in Congress. This conclusion was also drawn by the campaign experience of Presidential candidate Andrew Yang.

As of today, both the middle and working classes have little reason to adhere to a mainstream political party.
The Democrats lost the middle and working class when they abandoned the New Deal under Bill Clinton (although the process started under Jimmy Carter). Donald Trump saw the opportunity that created and exploited it successfully.

There is an interesting footnote to the 2020 election also. Donald Trump lost votes among white men and picked up votes in all other demographic categories. This indicated two things, I think. 

First, nationalist populism is not going to be over when Trump departs. It is a rising force in US politics. Democrats represent the internationalist and globalist elite. This will continue to have political implications.

Secondly, that Trump gained votes in all demographic categories other than white men since 2016 may indicate that these categories can no longer be taken for granted by Democrats, as they have been on the assumption there is no alternative. This elections appears to suggest that a significant number of voters now see an alternative.

This could mean that these categories are no shifting away from previous alignments toward fundamental political divisions in the US, e.g., nationalism versus internationalism, populism versus corporatism. Polling will probably give some insight into the chief motivations for the shirt.

This shift in voting patterns would probably be a good thing since ethnicity and gender and other demographic characteristics would be more evenly distributed across the parties and the parties could therefore focus on real issues instead of chiefly on identity issues. Both parties have to be realizing that the demographics are shifting toward a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural electorate and so they will have to adapt to emerging opportunities and challenges. That's a good thing.

Incidentally, Aristotle warned in the Politics that the bane of democracy is demagoguery. This is a characteristic of populism under inequality.

New Geography
The Grand New Party
Joel Kotkin

Another catalyst for change is global warming.
The Climate Reality Check 2020 (CRC) by David Spratt, Ian Dunlop and Luke Taylor of the National Centre for Climate Restoration argue that an emergency response would make climate the number one priority of politics and economics.
MR Online
Scientists say net zero by 2050 is too late
Originally published: Green Left by Pip Hinman (November 10, 2020)

See also

Rocky start.

The Grayzone
Biden’s transition team is filled with war profiteers, Beltway chickenhawks, and corporate consultants
Kevin Gosztola

1 comment:

Peter Pan said...

The GNP will do away with globalism. That will be an overdue change to the status quo.
The GNP will also be on the side of immigration reform.
The GNP will likely be authoritarian.

Those who do not get with the program will regret it.