Monday, July 17, 2023

Monetary Policy for Dummies? — John Smithin

Contrary to what we were taught in the graduate schools of half-a-century ago (the heyday of monetarism), monetary policy now typically means setting or influencing the interest rate that commercial banks pay on loans of central bank base money in the overnight market — the policy rate. What I mean by the ‘real’ policy rate is the nominal policy rate (the actual percentage rate quoted) less the currently observed rate of inflation. Such a zero real policy rate (ZRPR) will achieve as close an approximation as possible to a fair distribution of income, in a particular sense. It also promotes inflation stability, financial stability, higher growth, full employment, and higher real wages. It is a ‘good thing’ from many points of view. The sense in which a ZPRP is ‘fair’ is that rentiers (whose income arises solely from interest payments on existing wealth) do not share in the income generated by current productive activity. Nonetheless, the real value of existing financial capital is preserved. Such a policy also has the virtues of transparency and simplicity.

A ZRPR is different thing than the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) favoured by advocates of ‘modern money theory’ (MMT), which is that the nominal policy rate should be zero — or what Rochon and Setterfield called the Kansas City rule. Both are examples of a ‘parking it’ approach to interest rates, but there are two main reasons for preferring a ZRPR to ZIRP....
Sort of interesting.

Monetary Policy Institute Blog
Monetary Policy for Dummies?
John Smithin, Executive Co-Director, Secretary and Treasurer, Aurora Philosophy Institute and Emeritus Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics and the Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto, Canada

3 comments:

Peter Pan said...

Make it so.

NeilW said...

MMT doesn't do real rates, because nobody has really any idea what the deflator should be.

Price changes are personal and differential.

Therefore the nominal rate of zero makes sense. At least that is absolute and affects everybody in the same way. Nobody gets any free money and they will never rely upon it.

Instead we stabilise via the labour market rather than the money market.

Which of course the 'monetary policy institute' conveniently overlooked.

Matt Franko said...

“ Such a zero real policy rate (ZRPR) will achieve as close an approximation as possible to a fair distribution of income, in a particular sense. It also promotes inflation stability, financial stability,”

Whoa hold up! What happened to “stability creates instability!” ?

🤔