Bill Mitchell — Politicians think the public is more right-wing and conservative than it actually is

It is Wednesday and so a short blog. I am working on a number of things at present but getting the material sorted for my next book with Thomas Fazi is a priority at the moment. My snippet today though is about a study that has just come out in the American Political Science Review – Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites – by two US academics. The title is indicative. They explore what they argue is a disjuncture between what the politicians think voters want and what the voters actually want. This lack of congruence is also biased towards right-wing views. So, the politicians “believed that much more of the public in their constituencies preferred conservative policies than actually did”. They trace this bias to biases in the way the politicians get their information. The takeaway is that the progressive side of the debate has to be more active in framing distinctive messages and using multiple ways and avenues to communicate those messages to the candidates seeking election and the politicians that have been elected. And it must refrain from using conservative frames which advisors think neutralise difficult concepts etc. I think this sort of research provides some hope. I will be writing more about this in the weeks to come. And after that listen to some really classic minimalism from the C19th, which you might suspect on listening is very contemporary such was the genius of the composer....

There is a discrepancy  between public opinion and policy. The question is why and what can be done about it if it is a failing of democracy.

Note that this is not necessarily a failing of democracy in a democratic republic where the people elect a few to represent interests in government.

It is possible, for example, that politicians are better informed than the public and so are acting the public interest when it may appear they are not from the polling.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Politicians think the public is more right-wing and conservative than it actually is
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Jerry Taylor — How To Change Public Opinion

Today, we have empirics, and what we know can best be found in John Zaller’s The Nature & Origins of Mass Opinion. In brief, Zaller summarizes the academic literature on public opinion:

• There is a high variance in political awareness around a very low mean.
• Public opinion is extremely unstable on matters large and small. Wildly different findings can result from the same survey sample by simply ordering or framing questions differently.
• There are numerous examples of dramatic shifts in public opinion over very short periods of time.
• The vast majority of people have no discernable ideology and don’t even posses “true attitudes” about most political matters. Instead, they are ambivalent and have a myriad of partially independent and contradictory ideas and beliefs that co-exist comfortably with one another—which Zaller terms “considerations”—pertaining to most matters of political interest.
• Elite discourse is the most important driver of public opinion. After a particularly powerful account of how this was the case in white America’s about-face on the matter of racial equality, Zaller writes “If elite cues can change racial opinions, which appear to be among the most deeply felt of mass opinions, they can probably affect most other types of opinions as well.”
• Even so, individual political predispositions matter; they are “the critical intervening variable between the communications people encounter in the mass media, on one side, and their statements of political preferences, on the other.” Political predispositions are rooted in life experiences, childhood socialization, direct involvement in the raw ingredients of policy issues, social and economic status, inherited personality factors, and tastes.
• Elite discourse does not play an important role in the formation of political predispositions in the short run, but over the long run, exposure to elite discourse makes one more susceptible to it and likely has some effect on underlying predispositions.

In an attempt to synthesize these and several other observations about public opinion, Zaller constructs what he calls the RAS (Receive-Accept-Sample) Model to explain the formation of public opinion. The mathematical model is built upon four axioms:

Doesn't speak well for democracy.

Niskanen Center

How To Change Public Opinion

Jerry Taylor

ht BDL at Grasping Reality

Alexey Khlebnikov — Russia is now monitoring the world’s mass media for bias

The Russian Institute for Strategic Studies introduced its first-ever World Mass Media Hostility Index, which measures potential anti-Russian bias in the media publications of different countries, and then assigns each country an overall score.

This analytical report is the result of detailed analysis of the media policies of different countries in 2014, when crucial shifts in the rhetoric employed by Western media about Russia occurred. The author of the mass media hostility index is a senior fellow at RISS, Dr. Igor Nikolaichuk. He suggests that, over the course of 2014, Western media started to "spread anti-Russian propaganda more actively than ever," which he calls the beginning of “the global information war” against Russia. 

The RISS positions its index as the first-ever comprehensive analysis of the world’s media content pertaining to Russia. The analysis is based on complex statistical data (provided by Russian news agency Rossiya Segodnya) that is examined via a new applied discipline known as “political mediametrics.” A unit for analysis is a significant media publication that gives a reader certain assessments of Russia or its leadership.

Russia Direct
Russia is now monitoring the world’s mass media for bias
Alexey Khlebnikov

David Siegel — Why wouldn’t people want to reduce inequality?

Formation of collective consciousness through resonance and ripples.

The Washington Post — The Monkey Cage

Why wouldn’t people want to reduce inequality?

David A. Siegel | Associate Professor of Political Science, Duke University

(h/t Mark Thoma at Economist's View)

Emily Swanson and Ryan Grim — New Poll Shows Political Futility Of Deficit Reduction

The budget deficit is the lowest it has been since President Barack Obama took office, according to a Congressional Budget Office report this week. But don't expect that to matter to the American people.

In fact, the deficit has been falling steadily since 2009. Yet a new HuffPost/YouGov poll shows that Americans still think the deficit is going up and disapprove of Washington politicians accordingly....

According to the new poll, 54 percent of Americans think the budget deficit has increased since Obama took office in 2009, while only 19 percent know it has decreased. Fourteen percent think it has stayed the same since Obama became president.

The Huffington Post
New Poll Shows Political Futility Of Deficit Reduction
Emily Swanson and Ryan Grim

John Lounsbury — Debt Ceiling Polls: WTF?

Why don't polls really find out what Americans know as well as what their opinions are? How many people giving opinions have no idea what they are talking about?

Global Economic Intersection
Debt Ceiling Polls: WTF?
John Lounsbury

Andrew Dittmer — “Les français sont comme les chihuahuas” (#Snowden)

Many French coming to see Hollande as the snake in the grass that Obama turned out to be. They ask what the difference is between Hollande and Sarkozy, just as many American ask what the difference is between Obama and Bush the Younger.

The leaders of the free world are turning out to have feet of clay.

Naked Capitalism
“Les français sont comme les chihuahuas” (#Snowden)
Andrew Dittmer

And then, of course, "The General [de Gaulle] must be jumping within his tomb!"

A likely consequence will be that future European political aspirants will have to show independence from Washington to gain credibility.

Bonnie Kavoussi — Americans To Washington: Delay The 'Steep' Sequestration Cuts

Politicians have said they may have no choice but to let automatic spending cuts kick in next Friday. But the American people say they better find a way out of it.

The government has scheduled $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, nicknamed the "sequestration," to take place starting on Mar. 1. But 54 percent of Americans support a plan to "delay steep cuts to give the economy a chance to continue recovering which would help reduce the deficit," according to a new Bloomberg poll....

Americans support delaying the sequestration even though 62 percent of Americans believe the budget deficit is growing, the poll found. In fact, the deficit is shrinking, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The Huffington Post
Americans To Washington: Delay The 'Steep' Sequestration Cuts
Bonnie Kavoussi