Why Rate Expectations Dominates Bond Yield Fair Value Estimates — Brian Romanchuk

Although there are various attempts to downplay rate expectations as an explanation for bond yields. the reality is that they dominate any other attempt to generate a fair value estimate by using "fundamental data". (Since we cannot hope to explain every last wiggle of bond yields without having a largely content-free model, we need to look at fair value estimates.) The reasoning is rather straightforward: so long as the risk free curve slope is related to the state of the economy, bond yields are pinned down by the front of the curve, and the slope....

Bond Economics
Why Rate Expectations Dominates Bond Yield Fair Value Estimates
Brian Romanchuk

Who Will Tell the Truth About the So-Called ‘Free Press’?­ — Jeremy R. Hammond

Longish but detailed exposé of the corporate media as the "custodians" of the narrative, with "the paper of record" in the lead.

Foreign Policy Journal
Who Will Tell the Truth About the So-Called ‘Free Press’?­
Jeremy R. Hammond

At China-Kazakh border: New Silk Roads in action — Pepe Escobar

Central Asia, between China and Europe, is bustling

Take the tour with Pepe.

Asia Times
At China-Kazakh border: New Silk Roads in action
Pepe Escobar

Danielle Ryan - Media linking NHS leak to Russia is absurd, but using the Atlantic Council & Ben Nimmo as the source is journalistic malpractice

Jeremy Corbyn had a leaked document showing the secret talks between the Conservatives and America diplomats on the trade talks where the NHS was discussed. Boris Johnson was embarrassed as he said there had never been any meetings.

Anyway, who leaked the documents?

Well, would you believe, now they are saying the Russians did it.

The new effort to cast doubt over leaked NHS documents as a potential ‘Russian influence’ plot is nothing more than a pre-election smear campaign against the Labour Party, concocted by con artists and amplified by the Tory press.

But who would be willing to bravely step up to the plate and point the finger at Moscow. Enter the Atlantic Council — the omnipresent US-funded ‘think tank’ where researchers specialize in magicking up Russia links wherever a desperate status-quo protecting political party might need them. This astonishing talent for sniffing-out alleged traces of Russkie interference is matched only by their ability to have the establishment media collectively gasp in admiration at their sleuthy skills.

RT

Danielle Ryan - Media linking NHS leak to Russia is absurd, but using the Atlantic Council & Ben Nimmo as the source is journalistic malpractice

The Hill — Majority of voters support a federal jobs guarantee program

From 30 October but I just saw it. Harris Poll.

The Hill
Majority of voters support a federal jobs guarantee program

Fox News’ Tucker Carlson: ‘I would take the side of Russia’ if it’s between Russia and Ukraine

I couldn't agree more!

On Monday’s edition of Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” during an interview with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Carlson doubled down on his recent suggestions that the United States should be supporting Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, rather than the other way around.

“I should say for the record that I’m totally opposed to these sanctions and I don’t think we should be at war with Russia and I think we should probably take the side of Russia if we have to choose between Russia and Ukraine,” said Carlson.

Raw Story

Fox News’ Tucker Carlson: ‘I would take the side of Russia’ if it’s between Russia and Ukraine

China’s Schoolchildren Are Now the Smartest in the World

I hope they are not stressing them out.

Chinese students far out-stripped peers in every other country in a survey of reading, math and science ability, underscoring a reserve of future economic strength and the struggle of advanced economies to keep up.

Bloomberg 

China’s Schoolchildren Are Now the Smartest in the World

The "myth!" of "crowding out!"

"Crowding out!" is not a "myth!" its simply employment of the typical figurative language favored by the Liberal Art trained people...

But here is the thing... Why is it when Liberal Art trained hit their technical limit with their exclusive use of figurative language, they will not simply abandon this second rate figurative approach for proper abstractions of Science?

What they seem to always do is instead re-label the figurative language as "myth!"... then think this is somehow going to help... they ALWAYS do this...

Hard to understand how their brains operate.... serious cognitive deficiencies with these people...

The myth of crowding out https://t.co/dyQHg5F4TE

— Clint Ballinger (@clintballinger) December 3, 2019

Australian QE

Uh oh... not good:

Australian fund managers are already betting on quantitative easing https://t.co/FBiuqhQVNu

— Bloomberg (@business) December 3, 2019

Is the US Winning?

Sputnik International
New US Legislation Will Sanction Turkey for S-400 Purchase, Russian Nationals for Syrian Ties

Reuters
House debates Uighur bill demanding sanctions on senior Chinese officials

Reuters
U.S. has not ruled out imposing tariffs on imported autos: Commerce chief Ross

Reuters
Huawei urging suppliers to break the law by moving offshore: Ross

Reuters
Factbox: Trump has upended relationships with nine of 10 top U.S. trading partners

Anti Empire
Let the Show Begin! NATO Bitterly Divided as London Summit Starts
Alex Lantier

 

More than a third of millennials polled approve of communism

Biggest threat to world peace? 27% named President Trump, 22% said Kim Jong-Un, and 15% tapped Vladimir Putin

Someewhere, Bernie Sanders is smiling.

A new survey released by the Washington, D.C., nonprofit Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation reflects that, if the younger generation gets out and votes in 2020, those running for office on the far left have reason to be hopeful.

Market Watch, Shawn Langlois

More than a third of millennials polled approve of communism

Links — 3 Dec 2019 — Part 1

Orinoco Tribune
Members of Argentine Delegation in Bolivia Tell the Horror They Recorded (Coup Repression)

The “Influencers” of Hopelessness – Black Friday in Venezuela (Images and Videos)

Asia Times
Hong Kong: A different kind of Cold War

David P. Goldman

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
What’s wrong with Bayes
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

The National Interest
Donald the Meek: Three Times Trump Announced a Syria Withdrawal and Three Times He Broke Under Pressure

Daniel L. Davis

Craig Murray Blog
Violence and the State

Free the Truth – A Short Speech [video]
Craig Murray, formerly British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee

Irrussianality
No such thing as Russophobia
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

SouthFront
“My Swastika has Curved Edges, I am not a Nazi”: Ukrainian Defender Of Democracy To Dutch Media

Sputnik International
'Forced Rendition': WikiLeaks Editor Warns Assange's Extradition to US May Set 'Dangerous Precedent'

NEO
NATO Ups the Military Ante against China and Russia

Salman Rafi Sheikh

Sputnik International
Trump Reiterates ‘We Keep the Oil’ in Syria Mantra, Says US Can Do With Fuel ‘What We Want’

Shunned in the US, Huawei looks to Russia to invent an AI future — Simone McCarthy

• As research relations sour with American universities, China’s tech giant finds willing partners in institutes keen to monetise their technical skills
• Collaboration offers Huawei added strengthen in areas such as mathematics and gives Russian laboratories access to marketing expertise

This is much bigger than Huawei. If China switches to Russia for education and technology — in addition to tapping Russia's natural resources, especially energy — the worst fears of the US about an adversary will materialize in spades.

This is exactly what Henry Kissinger advised incoming President Donald Trump to prevent, but he was overridden by the deep state, the administrative state, and the opposition, largely from the Democrats but also within his own party.

This may go down as the single worst strategic blunder on record.

However, there is an upside to this, too. A new Cold War between approximately equal rivals militarily, where neither could be sure of winning a war against the other, would prevent either pole from dominating and would put a boundary on neoliberal globalization as the basis for unipolar Western hegemony.

SCMP
Shunned in the US, Huawei looks to Russia to invent an AI future

Simone McCarthy

Also at SCMP

You knew this was going to happen, right?

Taiwan loses 3,000 chip engineers to 'Made in China 2025' —Beijing rolls out red carpet with triple the pay and benefits
Kensaku Ihara, Nikkei staff writer

Warren Mosler and the Great American Banking Myth — George Selgin

Although I've taken issue with various MMT claims in the past (see, e.g. here and here), I've grown to respect several Modern Monetary Theorists. Far from being ill-informed, people like Eric Tymoigne and Nathan Tankus (the list is by no means exhaustive–these happen to be two whose work I know best) know a lot more than many orthodox economists do about the workings of the U.S. monetary system. Knowing this, I'm not inclined to accuse Modern Monetary Theorists of being ignorant just because I disagree with many of the school's positions and arguments.

But on the subject of bank runs, at least, Warren Mosler shows no signs of being well-informed. Although his talk is laced with knowing chuckles, along with disparaging references to "so-called neo-liberals" who are so foolish as to think markets work in banking, his attitudinizing is so much bluff and bluster. The truth is rather that, so far as knowledge of runs is concerned, Mosler is no less destitute than some of the banks whose demise he so heedlessly laments.

George Selgin disputes Warren Mosler's assertions about the dire consequence of free banking, namely, bank runs.

I would have no problem with allowing free banking for institutions that are not members of the central bank's payments system and have no recourse to either the lender of last resort function or government guaranteed deposit insurance. This would mean that such institutions would have to either issue their own private notes as liabilities of the institution or get currency from raising capital or deposits. A sovereign government would be advised not accept such liabilities in payment of obligations to it in place of the currency that the government issues, since this would be ceding sovereignty.

I would also require such institutions to advertise that customers' have no recourse in the case of bank failure other than the civil courts. Let people take a chance if they choose but the choice should be an informed choice. Thus, I would also require all financial institutions other than banks that are member of the government payments system to adopt the partnership model that characterized financial institutions before they were allowed to incorporate and thereby limit the liability of the owners. Note that is is not bank regulation but rather definition of legal liability.

"Let a hundred flowers bloom." Chairman Mao.

Alt-M
Warren Mosler and the Great American Banking Myth
George Selgin | senior fellow and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Georgia.

How to Tax the Super Rich — Emmanuel Saez

Does the solution to widening economic inequality lie in a wealth tax? We speak to Emmanuel Saez, an adviser to Elizabeth Warren who helped design the “Ultra-Millionaire Tax” plan.

Half-hour podcast.

Project Syndicate
How to Tax the Super Rich
Emmanuel Saez and Elmira Bayrasli

Romaric Godin — Social crises, crises of Democracy, neoliberalism in crisis

The connection could well be found in the great crisis the world entered in 2007–2008. Beyond what most observers remember—the “Great Crash” that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008—the crisis is much deeper and persists to the present day. Because it is not a simple financial or economic crisis: it is rather the crisis of a mode of managing capitalism; that is, neoliberalism, which is based on putting the state at the service of capital, the financialization of the economy, and the commodification of society.

Like the crises of the 1930s or 1970s, the current crisis profoundly challenges the contemporary functioning of capitalism. Such crises are often long and accompanied by periods of unrest. As the historian Adam Tooze has shown in The Deluge (2014), the disruption of capitalism began not with the 1929 crash but rather during the World War I and was not actually resolved until after World War II. As for neoliberalism, it only came fully into being in the 1990s, 20 years after the previous paradigm had gone into crisis.

Even today’s crisis has been prolonged and deepened as neoliberalism struggles to avert its own demise. But in seeking to survive, it is pushing the world into the abyss. Of course, neoliberalism survived the shock of 2008 and even emerged from 2010 strong enough to present “solutions” such as global fiscal austerity and “structural reforms” aimed at destroying any remaining protection for workers and the most precarious. But by seeking to remain dominant, neoliberalism has further deepened its own crisis....

Even if growth-rate differentials should bring emerging economies in closer sync with those of so-called advanced countries and thus reduce inequalities at the global level, inequalities within nations are widening more than ever. This was the conclusion reached by the economist Branko Milanović in Global Inequalities (2016), who foresaw the return of the question of social class. Thus it is a resurgence of class struggle that we are now witnessing at the global level....

Neoliberalism is helpless. Locked in its logic of extractivism and fictional growth, it clutches onto phantoms: the “trickle-down theory,” the Laffer curve, or the Coase Theorem, which holds that issues of distributive justice must be kept separate from economic reality. It does so thanks to another of its salient features: the “management” of democracy, whereby the economic sphere must not be subjected to democratic decision-making but must be preserved from the “”feelings” of the crowd or, to use President Emmanuel Macron’s notorious phrase, “unfortunate passions” (passions tristes). But such segregation is less and less possible as inequalities deepen and the climate crisis becomes more acute. After five decades of managed democracy, people are demanding that their own emergencies be addressed instead of those of “markets” or “investors.”

The current crisis of neoliberalism has three aspects: an ecological crisis, a social crisis, and a democratic crisis. The current economic system is unable to respond to these three profound sources of discontent. Faced with an ecological emergency, it puts forward market solutions and fiscal repression of consumption by the weakest. In the face of social and democratic demands, its response is indifference. In fact, responding to such demands would require a profound change in the economic paradigm.…

Addressing the climate crisis would require a complete reorientation of investments and an end to basing the economy solely on real estate and financial bubbles. This would imply a complete overhaul of the monetary system. The seeds of such a transformation are shown in the Green New Deal that has been proposed in the United States, which has struck fear among neoliberal economists, because if the legislation is enacted the climate transition would no longer entail weakening the working class but acting in concert with them. By ensuring a massive redistribution of resources to the detriment of the richest, the more modest classes could achieve better livelihoods without destroying the planet. Finally, greater popular participation could assure that such decisions are not made for the benefit of the richest and for capital, but in the common interest. This is exactly what neoliberalism has always rejected: this ability of democracy to “change the economic deal”—precisely what the world needs today....

Second leg down? And is that a good thing, sweeping out the old and preparing for the new. Or are are looking at a replay of the French Revolution, with blood in the streets? Or a fascistic crackdown?

These are just a few excerpts. The whole post is reading in full. This is the overarching social, political and economic issue of our times that is taking place in a historical dialectic dominated by a conflict among traditionalism, liberalism, fascism, and communism, all of which include a range of variety and which may overlap each other as well. Quite a mix.

Dollars & Sense
Social crises, crises of Democracy, neoliberalism in crisis

Romaric Godin

The original version of this article in French appeared in Mediapart (mediapart.fr) on October 21, 2019. It was translated by Fred Murphy.

US Healthcare System in Crisis: Spends Doubly More Than Peer Countries, but Falling Behind in Life Expectancy—People Increasingly Hard-Pressed to Pay Medical Bills — Jon Hellevig

More an article than a post. Longish and detailed.

Awara
US Healthcare System in Crisis: Spends Doubly More Than Peer Countries, but Falling Behind in Life Expectancy—People Increasingly Hard-Pressed to Pay Medical Bills

Jon Hellevig

Greece economy

Greece manufacturing up big:

Greece manufacturing growth hits highs in November https://t.co/IJMeGf8pG0 #Economy https://t.co/eQQT8822Zi #834

— POST Online Media (@poandpo) December 3, 2019

Planning on more govt spending increases and tax cuts next year:

Greece eyes stronger growth, more tax cuts next year - ministry #economy #MarketScreener https://t.co/buPdPOhaOy pic.twitter.com/ReJ7RVvNbu

— MarketScreener.com (@Market_Screener) December 3, 2019

Boy all that moron alleged "neoliberal austerity!" seems to be working pretty well....

Harry Dominski - Huawei's Mate 30 phones and 5G tech 'now have no US components'

Trump's policies have backfired, as US companies lose out.

Through the course of 2019 Huawei has struggled with a ban placed on it by the US Government, forcing the company to cease using any American-made hardware components or software.

This precludes its smartphones and laptops from running on the well-established Android and Windows operating systems, which are created and maintained by US-based Google and Microsoft respectively.

This has led the world’s second largest smartphone manufacturer to release its first ever smartphone range that (according to analysts speaking with The Wall Street Journal) doesn’t use a single US component, either physical or otherwise – namely, the Huawei Mate 30 and Mate 30 Pro.

Tech Radar

Harry Dominski - Huawei's Mate 30 phones and 5G tech 'now have no US components'

Links — 2 Dec 2019

New Republic  [nation-building]
America Lost the Iraq War. These Cables Show How.
Jared Keller

Reminiscence of the Future
Geopolitics Of Pipes.
Andrei Martyanov

Mish Talk [winning]
China No Longer Needs US Parts in its Phones
Mish Shedlock

Chemistry World
China overtakes UK in list of highly cited researchers
Jamie Durrani

Elijah J. Magnier
Why Abdel Mahdi has to go: Many mistakes by the US, Iran and the Marjaiya.

The Enlightened Economist
The Best Economics Books of 2019, recommended by Diane Coyle
Diane Coyle | freelance economist and a former advisor to the UK Treasury. She is a member of the UK Competition Commission and is acting Chairman of the BBC Trust, the governing body of the British Broadcasting Corporation

Fort Russ News [AMLO]
Mexican President: ‘Morales Victim of a Coup D’état’

Voltaire Network [important backgrounder]
Bolivia, laboratory of a new destabilization strategy
Thierry Meyssan

MintPressNews
Amid a Violent Crackdown, Bolivia’s Coup Gov’t is Trying to Convict Evo Morales of “Crimes Against Humanity”

How a Mass Bot Network is Pushing the Coup in Bolivia

Alan Macleod

SouthFront  [Luis Fernando Camacho]
Bolivian Coup Leader Announces Presidential Bid in Upcoming Elections

Fort Russ News

France Slams US for Forcing Own Weapons on NATO Allies
Drago Bosnic

Intrepid Report
‘An unjust society is far costlier’: AOC says beware the deficit scolds who only complain about paying for stuff when it benefits people
Eoin Higgins

Mideast Shuffle [busting the propaganda]
Iran protests: Why western media got it wrong again
Sandboxer

Moon of Alabama
As The OPCW Is Accused Of False Reporting U.S. Propaganda Jumps To Its Help

Oriental Review
US Gatecrashes Into Libyan Endgame
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

RT
China suspends review of visits by American warships & sanctions NGOs in response to US signing of Hong Kong bill

Sputnik International
Why Are Ukrainian Neo-Nazis Joining the Hong Kong Protests?

Strategic Culture Foundation
Children of ‘the Children of Plenty’ Are Rising in Anger
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

Zero Hedge
Pompeo: We'll Help 'Legitimate' Latin America Govts Prevent Protests From "Morphing Into Riots"
Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge
China To Accelerate Release Of "Unreliable Entity List" In Response To Xinjiang Bill, Stocks Swoon
Tyler Durden

Bill Mitchell — European Union–business as usual as the madness continues

At the weekend, the German Social Democratic Party elected a new leadership from the Left of the Party, in the hope of resurrecting their disastrous political standings (Source), In rejecting the other main contender, current Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, the decision has apparently threatened the GroKo (Große Koalition), the coalition between Merkel’s CDU/CSU union and the SPD, which, arguably, has been the reason for the declining fortunes of the SPD. They have, in effect, abandoned their charter and become part of the neoliberal, austerity machine. The new leadership rejects the basis for the GroKo. At present, the SPD is only marginally ahead of the far-right AfD with the Union and Greens ahead of them. The same political dislocations are happening throughout Europe although the antagonism to the neoliberal austerity orthodoxy is more manifesting in chaos than a defined direction away from the major political parties (Britain is currently a good example of that). Meanwhile, the orthodoxy continues in the European Commission and in its – Autumn 2019 Economic Forecast: A challenging road ahead – they are requiring the majority of Member States to inflict more austerity on their nations even though a recession is looming. That is, business as usual as the madness continues.

Looking like the West is doing its best to blow itself up. Whom the Fates would destroy they first drive mad. (source)

This is in part the consequence of abandoning liberal values based on virtue ethics for neoliberal values based on bourgeois liberalism.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
European Union – business as usual as the madness continues
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Clint Ballinger — Austerity in a Time of Plenty: : The “domestic default” bogeyman = More bad statistics from Reinhart & Rogoff

R & R are at it again.

Clint Ballinger
Austerity in a Time of Plenty: : The “domestic default” bogeyman = More bad statistics from Reinhart & Rogoff

Modern monetary theory is gaining traction. But can it knock out free market capitalism? — Antony Funnell

After more than four decades of dominance, free market capitalism is facing a challenge.

Its rival, the blandly named modern monetary theory (MMT), has entered the ring promising to return economic planning to a less ideological footing....

Pretty good summary presentation of the kerfuffle between MMT and conventional economics.

ABC News (AU)
Modern monetary theory is gaining traction. But can it knock out free market capitalism?
Antony Funnell for Future Tense

'Robots were treated better than humans': Ex-Amazon employee blasts Jeff Bezos' retail giant claiming she worked 12-hour shifts in a 'cult-like sweatshop'

Maureen Donnelly said she was forced to hand in her resignation to her Amazon bosses in October last year after just one month of employment.

'I soon learned that only difference between an Amazon warehouse and a third-world sweatshop were the robots...they were treated better' she told the Post.

On Monday, more than 100 protestors rallied in front of the building where she briefly worked, demonstrating against harsh working conditions. 

When Donnelly first secured her job at Amazon, she says she was excited about the prospect that laid ahead but less than 30 days later her 'spirits was crushed'.

Amazon has not yet responded to a DailyMail.com request for comment.

Daily Mail 

Luke Kenton

'Robots were treated better than humans': Ex-Amazon employee blasts Jeff Bezos' retail giant claiming she worked 12-hour shifts in a 'cult-like sweatshop. 

Podcast - Modern Monetary Theory and its challenge to Neoliberalism

By Anthony Funnell

After more than four decades of dominance, free-market capitalism is facing a challenge.

Its rival, the rather blandly named Modern Monetary Theory, promises to return economic planning to a less ideological footing.

It’s also keen to strike a blow against the “surplus fetish” that many economists now blame for declining public services and growing inequality.

Modern Monetary Theory and its challenge to Neoliberalism

Lynn Parramore – How Neoliberal Thinkers Spawned Monsters They Never Imagined

Political theorist Wendy Brown’s latest book, In the Ruins of Neoliberalism: The Rise of Antidemocratic Politics in the West, traces the intellectual roots of neoliberalism and reveals how an anti-democratic project unleashed monsters – from plutocrats to neo-fascists – that its mid-20^thcentury visionaries failed to anticipate. She joins the Institute for New Economic Thinking to discuss how the flawed blueprint for markets and the less-discussed focus on morality gave rise to threats to democracy and society that are distinct from what has come before.

Brave New Europe

Lynn Parramore – How Neoliberal Thinkers Spawned Monsters They Never Imagined

Trump vs Talking Heads - Swedemason

Are hedge funds driving Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans? | Peter Jukes

“The backers of Johnson’s leadership campaign were dominated by Hedge funds. To what extent is he swayed by their interests?”

China: New "Artificial Sun" Will Be Completed This Year

In November, Chinese researchers announced that the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) reactor — an “artificial sun” designed to mimic the nuclear fusion process the real Sun uses to generate energy — had hit a milestone by achieving an electron temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius.

Now, officials are saying they believe they’ll wrap up construction on a new artificial sun this year, and they claim this device will be able to hit a milestone in ion temperature — putting us one step closer to harnessing the power of nuclear fusion.

Futurism

China: New "Artificial Sun" Will Be Completed This Year

Novara Media - Are Bankers Scared Of Corbyn? We Asked Them.

If Labour get into power.... 📉THE POUND WILL CRASH! 💸THE BANKERS WILL FLEE! But is this true? Michael Walker went to the City of London to see if bankers are really scared of Corbyn.