Thursday, January 21, 2010

Stock market skids lower, as predicted by this blog

Readers of this blog should not be surprised at the stock market's recent about face. I have been saying for weeks now that a renewed focus on deficit reduction by Obama will not only abort the rally and economic recovery, but send the market sharply lower--perhaps even to the March '09 lows--depending on how serious and austere the deficit reduction measures are.

I have been staunchly bullish over the past year and rode this rally up despite widespread cries of gloom and doom. Now I am bearish.

I did what I did and do what I do because I understand that the most important driver of the economy are the fiscal policies of the central government.

When you know that, that's pretty much all you need to know.

Government spending adds to GDP and the net worth (wealth) of the private sector. When the cental gov't runs deficits the private sector runs surpluses and when the central gov't reduces deficits or runs surpluses, the private sector's surpluses diminish or turn to deficits. That's the way it works. It's that simple.

It's not my fault that nearly everything you hear about economics is wrong. I've been doing what I can to try to educate and inform.

For more on my outlook and what 2010 has in store and how you can make money on the policies and trends that are shaping up, please purchase my Outlook 2010 report. It's only $39.95.

Go here to buy it.


bubbleRefuge said...

Mike, I think fiscal policy is still very stimulative at this point with the automatic stabilizers blazing away. Yes there has been talk about reigning things in, but I don't see any tax increases coming down the pike. What is happening in the markets may be more of a reaction to possible curbs on proprietary trading at commercial banks + China restricting bank lending + a very strong bull run of late creating expectations for a pullback ( ie a technical pullback). Why not buy the dip?

mike norman said...

Yes, China succumbed to the same irrational, misguided "analysis" and criticism that we get here. That's too bad. In the case of China I do think it's a buying opportunity at some point. They'll keep the lending going at the first sign of wobbling. On the other hand I think that we will see aggressive measures toward deficit reduction here. The political pressures for this to happen are just too great. Perhaps we could see deficit reduction policies curtailed or jettisoned completely at some point down the road, but only when things have gotten really bad again. I am now at much higher cash levels than anytime in the past year and have bought a number of short stock ETF's.

bubbleRefuge said...

Ok fine mike. Looks like you may have hit it just right. You still bullish on the home-buidlers.

mike norman said...

I own several still and I'm not selling them, although I admit that they'll take a hit with as the market turns down, generally.