Monday, September 6, 2010

August: $150B Fiscal Deficit

Based on the end of August Treasury Statement:

Total Withdrawals: 987,829
Treasury Sec. Redemption: 645,620
Net Withdrawals: 342,209

Total Deposits: 1,060,167
Treasury Issuance: 867,796
Net Deposits: 192,371

Net Withdrawals - Net Deposits = 149,838 for the month. This is a big number...quite a bit larger than it has been over the previous months of the FY. This would scale to a $1.8T annual fiscal deficit.


Larry Staton Jr. said...

Matt -

This looks like a recent trend: spend a lot in August. Sadly, I don't think we can scale this number since spending in September (the end of the fiscal year) seems to drop way down.

mike norman said...

Still don't know how they calculate this because according to the DTS, it's a $75 bln gross surplus.

Matt Franko said...

this was my number, I dont think the Treasury has reported their MTS numbers yet....I took total withdrawals minus Treasuries redeemed (leaves net real Treasury spending ie new NFAs withdrawn). vs total deposits - sales of Treasury securities (leaves just taxes deposited ie NFAs taken out of non-govt sector)

This looks like Treasury added approx $150B in NFA in August. However I dont think this may represent what happened net in Treasury's account at the Fed. I guess becasue of Treasury sales, they could have reduced non-govt sector bank accounts over the month, and increased Treasury's bank this way perhaps a 'surplus' to Treasury's bank account?


Matt Franko said...

Yes and with an election coming up the Admin may want to look more 'fiscal conservative' at/around election time...


mike norman said...


Yes, you're right, they usually report MTS numbers on or around the 11th of the month. When looking year-over-year and subtracting out last year's $365 billion in TARP, we are still down in spending this year by something like $160 bln. Shows why the stock market has stalled.

Anonymous said...

Did you ever hear of Peter Schiff? You should check him out - you might learn something