China to grow faster than expected in 2022 — David P. Goldman

Numbers.

I disagree somewhat with Goldman's analysis that China cracked down too abruptly on the RE bubble and ran into energy issues because it had not dealt with the transition to green sufficiently in advance. 

First, there is no simple way to deflate a RE bubble before it bursts and the majority of Western criticism has been about the growing debt bubble owing to government policy. China may have been able to smooth is out prior to its becoming threatening but that is now hindsight. The fact is that China did act to prevent what Western speculators had been betting on.

The second criticism is also a bit too strong in my opinion. Developing countries are walking a fine line in trying to balance growth with going green. China is too reliant still on carbon-based fuels, but it has been a leader in moving away from them as quickly as practicable and is a leader in alternative energy sourcing.

Finally, steering a huge economy is comparable to turning a heavy-draft vessel. Heavy-draft vessels are not very maneuverable in response to emergencies arising like collision at sea unless they have huge power-drives like nuclear powered carriers with four props. We'll have to wait and see how China handles this, but so far it looks pretty good and the situation will change drastically as nuclear power replaces carbon-driven electric power plants and the debt crisis is worked out. 

China's super-high growth rate was bound to moderate as the country developed anyway. China still has a way to go to reach developed status, so growth will still be above average if the policy is right. The leadership gets this, and they have a decent track-record so far. 

On the other hand, they have to navigate the attempts of the US to limit China's development. This was not present before, and this creates a bit of a drag. Goldman doesn't mention this. The USSR had to deal with this from its inception, whereas China had a period since Deng in which the West participated in its growth as mutually beneficial. That period seems to be ending as far as the US goes, but probably not Europe.

Asia Times
China to grow faster than expected in 2022

David P. Goldman
https://asiatimes.com/2021/11/china-to-grow-faster-than-expected-in-2022/