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Thursday, March 31, 2022

Zero Hedge — German Chemical Giant Warns Of "Total Collapse" If Russian Gas Supply Cut

Consequences of not thinking things through. 

Civilization hangs by just a few threads, and one of these threads is energy. Another is food, which also being affected.

Zero Hedge
German Chemical Giant Warns Of "Total Collapse" If Russian Gas Supply Cut
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/basf-ceo-warns-germany-total-collapse-if-russian-gas-supply-cut

Links — 31 Mar 2022

The Vineyard of the Saker
Day 35 of the Russian SMO in the Ukraine – a “naysayers special”!
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/day-35-of-the-russian-smo-in-the-ukraine-a-naysayers-special/

Reminiscence of the Future
Upcoming Finalization
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/upcoming-finalization.html

Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-2/

Medium
Laura Ruggeri, Hong Kong based independent Italian journalist and author
https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/is-russia-losing-the-information-war-79016e0ee32e

Daily Reckoning
Rickards: I’ve Never Heard So Many Lies (Jim gets one right. Some people, mostly on the right are figuring this out. The left is still mostly clueless.)
Jim Rickards
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-ive-never-heard-so-many-lies/

Times of Israel
Hundreds march in Ukraine in annual tribute to Nazi collaborator
Cnaan Liphshiz
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-march-in-ukraine-in-annual-tribute-to-nazi-collaborator/

Sputnik International
Russia Still Awaiting OSCE's Response on [Armored] Cars Handed Over to Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion - Envoy
https://sputniknews.com/20220331/russia-still-awaiting-osces-response-on-cars-handed-over-to-neo-nazi-azov-battalion---envoy-1094367710.html

Rouble Rumble Continues — NeilW

The upshot of this widely misunderstood maneuver of demanding payment in RUB is that payment is made to a Russian bank (Gazprom's bank) that is exempt from sanctions, so that when the payment clears, payment has been made to a bank that Russia controls instead of to a bank that Russia doesn't control. If the payment were made it into a non-Russian bank, it would arguably fulfill the contract but prevent Russia from being able to access the funds owing to sanctions. Thus, Russia would be obliged to deliver under the contract. 

But Russia has made clear that it will not provide commodities "for free." This would be the case if the payments were made to entities that Russia doesn't not control while under sanctions and sanctions prevented the payments from being transferred to Russia, but where Russia would be required to deliver the gas or break the contract. (Recall that contracts are "sacred.")

Under this present arrangement, entities of "unfriendly" countries must open accounts at Gazprom's subsidiary bank, which is not sanctioned. In effect, they deposit their own currency (euros) in those accounts and the bank converts them to rubles for the company that owns the bank to use in its operations.

This means that the euro deposit into Gazprom Bank must clear through the system for the contract to be fulfilled. So the euros end up in a Russian bank, which then converts them into rubles for use by Gazprom in its operations.

Should this payment venue be sanctioned, Russia has made clear that deliveries would cease in that the contract was broken at the buyers' end for failure to clear.

What this means is that Germany continues to get the gas it needs, Russia gets paper in exchange, Russia looks strong, and the West looks weak. In real real terms of trade the West benefits from receiving real goods on the credit of its paper. Russia gets paid, which strengthens its balance sheet. Everyone is happy — sort of.

Germany doesn't have to obtain rubles for the transaction, either in the fx market or from the Central Bank of Russia (which is sanctioned). The transaction takes place in the usual way with some slight modification to avoid a sanctioning process that would prevent Europe from accessing Russian gas.

Neil explains the details of how this actually takes place in terms of ledger entries on the books for various banks, buyers, and sellers.

New Wayland
Rouble Rumble Continues
NeilW
https://new-wayland.com/blog/rouble-rumble-continues/

Not A Fool's Day in the New World — Andrei Maranov



Not A Fool's Day in the New World
Andrei Maranov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues

TASS — Russian ministry says Kiev was developing equipment for delivery, use of bio weapons

Igor Kirillov pointed to a request from the Ukrainian company Motor Sich to the Turkish manufacturer of Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicles, asking about the possibility to equip the UAV with systems and mechanisms for spraying aerosols...

TASS (Russian state media)
Russian ministry says Kiev was developing equipment for delivery, use of bio weapons
https://tass.com/politics/1430505

also at TASS
Russian Defense Ministry names those who worked on bioweapons in Ukraine
https://tass.com/politics/1430595

Russian envoy points to proof of Germany’s military biological activity in Ukraine
https://tass.com/politics/1430637

https://sputniknews.com/20220331/russian-mod-unveils-emails-showing-hunter-bidens-key-role-in-funding-pathogen-research-in-ukraine-1094360814.html


Russia will view refusal of paying for gas in rubles as breach of contract — Putin

MOSCOW, March 31. /TASS/. If gas buyers from unfriendly states refuse to pay for gas in rubles, Russia will view it as breach of contract, President Vladimir Putin said at the meeting on the situation in the aviation sector.

"If such [ruble] payments are not made, we will consider this to be the buyers’ failure to perform commitments with all ensuing implications," Putin said....
TASS (Russian state media)
Russia will view refusal of paying for gas in rubles as breach of contract — Putin
https://tass.com/economy/1430513

See also

Zero Hedge
Putin Signs Decree Ordering Gas Exports To Be Halted If Buyers Don't Pay In Rubles
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/putin-signs-decree-ordering-gas-exports-be-halted-if-buyers-dont-pay-rubles

Note: USD/RUB rate now trading back up at pre-war level.

U.S. Warns India Against Buying More Russian Oil — Irina Slav

  • U.S.: India buying more crude from Russia could expose it to a "great risk" in light of more sanctions against Moscow.
  • Kpler data: Indian purchases of Russian oil had jumped to an average daily of 360,000 barrels.
  • Moscow and New Delhi finalized an alternative payments platform
When national interest collides with geopolitics....

Oilprice
U.S. Warns India Against Buying More Russian Oil
Irina Slav
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Warns-India-Against-Buying-More-Russian-Oil.html

See also

TASS (Russian state media)
Russia intends to increase settlements in national currencies — Putin
https://tass.com/economy/1430549


You See, I Told You So))) — Andrei Maranov

Sun Tzu, The Art of War:
I-18. All warfare is based on deception.

III-18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

On point one, from what I can see from where I sit, US and Western strategists were sucked in by Russian deception, failing to see what Russia was actually doing. This continues. Maybe they do understand and are saying something else for deception, in this case information warfare, which the US and UK are winning hands down in the Western media, although at the cost of imposing censorship on alternative media.

On point two, as Andrei Martyanov observes, US leaders do not understand the Russians, and I would add, they do not understand the Chinese either. Scott Ritter shows this in the case of Russia. I say this about China as someone that studied under Chinese martial arts under Chinese masters for decades. This is revealed by surprise rather than anticipation. 

This fault line became abundantly clear to me in the case of Vietnam, for example. The Americans repeated the mistakes of the French and like them were defeated by an apparently inferior force.

The Russian did make two mistakes, however, according to Scott Ritter. First, they underestimated the degree of Nazification of Ukraine in the eight years since Maidan in expecting that ordinary Ukrainians would be happy to be liberated from this menace. That turned out to only be true for the Russian sections in the East. This presents a problem with their major objective of de-Nazifying Ukraine. Now they will likely have to limit this to the hardcore that are fighting in the East.

The second mistake, according to Ritter, is purely political, that is, reducing civilian casualties. Usually, civilian casualties in war run about 1:1 for military and civilian. Russia aimed for much less (and hit their target on this), but at the cost of limiting military efficiency and effectiveness. Ritter points out that this is a "mistake" militarily, but politics supervenes over military objectives, since war is politics by other means (to paraphrase Carl von Clauswitz). 

Ritter's conclusion is that Russia was indeed slowed down in its advance but it did not seriously disrupt the military plan or materially influence the facts on the ground that the Russian military is aiming to create for negotiations. This tying one hand behind the back militarily did not get in the way of degrading the Ukrainian military to the point that maneuver warfare is beyond their capability now strategically and logistically as a result of the superior Russian air power and artillery, including missiles.

Reminiscence of the Future
You See, I Told You So)))
Andrei Maranov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/you-see-i-told-you-so.html

See also

Sputnik International
Ilya Tsukanov
https://sputniknews.com/20220331/french-military-intel-chief-kicked-out-over-lack-of-understanding-of-issues-amid-ukraine-crisis-1094366598.html

See also

One World
Was The Russian Military Advance On Kiev Just A Distraction This Entire Time? (yep)
Andrew Korybko

Also

Zero Hedge
US "Doesn't Have Real Information": Kremlin Rejects Claim Putin Being Misled By Advisers [ZH calls BS on the US infowar here]
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-doesnt-have-real-information-kremlin-rejects-claim-putin-being-misled-advisers

See also

The "Biden" view.

Politico
Biden suggests Putin has ‘fired’ or put his advisers ‘under house arrest’ (delusional if POTUS believes this, but it is likely just part of the infowar in that Biden admits it is "speculative." Anyway, it is what Americans are being told by their government.)
Myah Ward
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/31/biden-putin-fired-advisers-house-arrest-00022078

Transcript of CN Live! — ‘Ukraine: The Economic Fallout’ With Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson

Video and transcript.

Consortium News
READ: Transcript of CN Live! — ‘Ukraine: The Economic Fallout’ With Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson
Joe Lauria and Elizabeth Vox interview Marxian economists Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/31/read-transcript-of-cn-live-ukraine-the-economic-fallout-with-richard-wolff-and-michael-hudson/

See also

Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

MAGA economic outlook

 

Bannon and Cortes breakdown:






Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Links — 31 Mar 2022 Part 1

The Vineyard of the Saker
Negotiations: a primer for Zone A residents
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/negotiations-a-primer-for-zone-a-residents/

Gonzalo Lira going live with Scott Ritter
http://thesaker.is/gonzalo-lira-going-live-with-scott-ritter/

Gilbert Doctorow — International relations, Russian affairs
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/03/30/is-a-peace-treaty-to-end-the-russia-ukraine-war-in-sight/

Reminiscence of the Future
How To Look Laughable.
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/how-to-look-laughable.html

SouthFront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
War In Ukraine Day 35: Getting Ready For The Russian Blow In Donbass
https://southfront.org/war_in_ukraine_day_35/

The Grayzone
US veteran who volunteered to fight for Ukraine describes ‘suicide mission’
Alexander Rubenstein
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/30/us-veteran-fight-ukraine-suicide-mission/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
The US Empire’s Ultimate Target Is Not Russia But China
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/31/the-us-empires-ultimate-target-is-not-russia-but-china/

Dissident Voice
Censorship: Donbass Insider in the Crosshairs of Newsguard, an Agency Linked to the CIA, NATO and the White House
Donbass Insider
https://dissidentvoice.org/2022/03/censorship-donbass-insider-in-the-crosshairs-of-newsguard-an-agency-linked-to-the-cia-nato-and-the-white-house/

The Last Refuge
Biden Says U.S. Govt Has No Money to Fight Pandemic, Moments Later Biden Says U.S. Govt Sending $500 Million to Ukraine
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/30/biden-says-u-s-govt-has-no-money-to-fight-pandemic-moments-later-biden-says-u-s-govt-sending-500-million-to-ukraine/

Russia Agrees to Accept Euros for Energy Payment, Which Will Be Transacted into Rubles by Gazprombank
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/30/russia-agrees-to-accept-euros-for-energy-payment-which-will-be-transacted-into-rubles-by-gazprombank/

Zero Hedge
Lavrov: Russia, China Moving Towards Multipolar 'Fair World Order'
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/russia-china-foreign-ministers-meet-wednesday-discuss-fair-world-order

Bill Mitchell — We have an experiment under way as the Bank of Japan holds its cool

Yesterday’s fiscal statement analysis replaced my usual Wednesday news and music blog post, so that appears today. I have hardly any time today anyway as the commitments associated with that statement are queuing up. So, today I want to reflect on the sanity in Japan and the ECB before some Duke. So we now have an experiment underway again. Most central banks are buckling under the pressure the financial markets are putting on them to raise interest rates. But the Bank of Japan, and to a lesser extent the ECB are not. We will see how that plays out. I think the Bank of Japan has its finger on the pulse and the other central banks are going down the wrong path....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
We have an experiment under way as the Bank of Japan holds its cool
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Links — 30 Mar 2022

The Vineyard of the Saker
Russian SMO in the Ukraine – Day 34
http://thesaker.is/russian-smo-in-the-ukraine-day-34/

Sitrep: That ‘bumbling’ presidential aide Medinsky ….
amarynth
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-that-bumbling-presidential-aide-medinsky/

Ramzan Kadyrov speaking about the negotiations with Ukraine
(closed captions available)
http://thesaker.is/ramzan-kadyrov-speaking-about-the-negotiations-with-ukraine/

A Son of the New American Revolution
Russia Mythology Dominates the U.S. Media
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/russia-mythology-dominates-the-u-s-media/

Russia Defense Forum
Russian special military operation in Ukraine #9
https://www.russiadefence.net/t8769-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-9

Internationalist 360º
Mariupol City Center: Hell On Earth (There are many such videos today, some rather gruesome. The Russians are taking names.)

Consortium News
Russia, Ukraine & the Law of War: Crime of Aggression
Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, serving in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, on General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/29/russia-ukraine-the-law-of-war-crime-of-aggression/

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Ukrainian Forces Fired on Border With Russia Hours Before Russian Military Op Began, Eyewitness Says
https://sputniknews.com/20220330/ukrainian-forces-fired-on-border-with-russia-hours-before-russian-military-op-began-eyewitness-says-1094335421.html

TASS (Russian state media)
West fails to globally bound Russia, Moscow was ready for sanctions, says Medvedev
https://tass.com/economy/1429895



Putin informs Scholz about reason for switching to payments for gas in rubles — Kremlin

MOSCOW, March 30. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin informed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding the decision to switch to payments for Russian gas in rubles, the Kremlin press service reported. The two leaders had a phone conversation on Wednesday.

"Vladimir Putin informed the Federal Chancellor on the subject of switching to payments for gas supplies in Russian rubles, in particular, for Germany. The change in the payment procedure is being introduced due to the fact that, in violation of international law, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia were frozen by the EU member-states," the statement said.

Besides that, Putin and Scholz agreed that the transition to paying for Russian gas in rubles will discussed by experts from the two countries.…
Germany needs energy imports. Russia wants to get paid. Wanna bet they'll work it out.

Zero Hedge — Germany Scrambles To Ration Gas After Refusing To Make Payments In Rubles

Let's just say that the situation is fluid, as the post shows. Standing of principle sounds fine, but the foundation of principle is sand, not granite.

Zero Hedge
Germany Scrambles To Ration Gas After Refusing To Make Payments In Rubles
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/germany-scrambles-ration-gas-after-refusing-make-payments-rubles

See also at ZH
European leaders have grown quite fond of bandying about the notion of liberating their economies from their dependence on Russian oil and gas. Unfortunately, the numbers just don't make sense...
This is what happens when you don't think things through before taking action.

Europe's Plan To Boost LNG Imports From US, Elsewhere Faces Major Obstacles
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/why-us-wont-succeed-weaning-europe-its-dependence-russian-gas

Related

BoE Gov Warns Of "Historic Shock" To Real Incomes As Stagflation Slams British Economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-gov-sees-stagflation-ahead-historic-income-shock-rattles-british-economy

Zero Hedge — "Put On Your Seatbelts": BlackRock CEO Warns Over 'Scarcity Inflation'

Reaction: "Eat the rich."

Zero Hedge
"Put On Your Seatbelts": BlackRock CEO Warns Over 'Scarcity Inflation'
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/put-your-seatbelts-blackrock-ceo-warns-over-scarcity-inflation

“Dollar Hegemony Ended Last Wednesday” — Michael Hudson Interviewed by Margaret Flowers on Clearing the Fog

Transcript.

Popular Resistance
“Dollar Hegemony Ended Last Wednesday”: Michael Hudson Interviewed by Margaret Flowers on Clearing the Fog
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/dollar-hegemony-ended-last-wednesday-michael-hudson-interviewed-by-margaret-flowers-on-clearing-the-fog.html


The end of dollar dominance? — Michael Roberts

All this suggests is that the shift in international currency strength after the Ukraine war will not into some West-East bloc, as most argue, but instead towards a fragmentation of currency reserves; to quote the IMF: “if dollar dominance comes to an end (a scenario, not a prediction), then the greenback could be felled not by the dollar’s main rivals but by a broad group of alternative currencies”. That may have even worse consequences for world peace and for the smooth expansion of the world capitalist economy than a major split between west and east. Indeed, it implies almost an anarchic currency situation where the imperialist economies, particularly the US, could lose control over world currency markets.
While the USD is still dominant and there is no rival on the immediate horizon, dollar dominance is ending in a somewhat surprising way that Michael Roberts views as detrimental to world trade.

The advantage of empire for the world system is stable and efficient trade based on a dominant payments system and a rules-based order established by the empire. While the empire profits most, everyone does better in a sort of trickle down arrangement. As the American empire loses power, that advantage for the current capitalistic world system is threatened, and this portends to affect poorer nations more negatively than wealthier ones.

Worth a read.

Michael Roberts Blog — blogging from a marxist economist
The end of dollar dominance?
Michael Roberts
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2022/03/30/the-end-of-dollar-dominance/

Ukraine Updates and More Discussion of the Russia “Gas for Roubles” Countersanction — Yves Smith

Given that the war in Ukraine is the focus of a massive propaganda operation in the West, it’s telling that it’s fading a bit from attention, either by design or a need to regroup. While the business press still gives the war top billing due to the fact that energy supplies and pricing around the globe are very much in play, the level of discussion on Twitter in the last couple of days has dropped dramatically. Similarly, I don’t check into Daily Mail religiously, but not all that long ago, it crowded out celebrity coverage. By contrast, the last two days, the first conflict-related story, this on a TV host in Russia calling for regime change in the US, was well below the fold....
Naked Capitalism
Ukraine Updates and More Discussion of the Russia “Gas for Roubles” Countersanction
Yves Smith
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/ukraine-updates-and-more-discussion-of-the-russia-gas-for-roubles-countersanction.html

Measuring Term Premia (And Other Comments) — Brian Romanchuk

I have been slowly getting back into things, and been thinking about what to write next. Based on a conversation with Gabriel Mathy on Twitter, I just want to quickly discuss how term premia ought to be measured. I think I have mentioned this before, but I felt like running through the arguments briefly again. I then have a few other unrelated comments to fill out this article....
Bond Economics
Measuring Term Premia (And Other Comments)
Brian Romanchuk
http://www.bondeconomics.com/2022/03/measuring-term-premia-and-other-comments.html

Bill Mitchell — A cynical fiscal statement from a crooked government

Last night (March 30, 2022), the Federal Treasurer released the annual ‘fiscal statement’ (aka ‘The Budget’), which revealed to everyone how cynical these exercises have become. The statement is normally released in May but the Federal government has to go to the polls then and they are so far behind the Opposition Labor Party in the opinion polling that they decided to bring forward the fiscal statement as a last ditch attempt to bribe the voters with pennies. I hope it doesn’t work. This is one of the most dishonest and incompetent governments we have ever had to deal with – and that is saying something given our history. While everyone is talking about the cash splash – it is offset by a range of cuts and dissipates in a few months anyway – just after the election. And the Government is once again revealing it has not foresight – to deal with the major challenges – climate, aged care, health care, higher education, social housing, etc. I can barely even write about the statement it is so bad....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
A cynical fiscal statement from a crooked government
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Geopolitics of War Crimes — Andrei Martyanov


Reminiscence of the Future
Geopolitics of War Crimes
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues

The Future of Digital Cash Is Not on the Blockchain — Gilad Edelman

Rohan Grey and Raúl Carrillo are MMT lawyers.

Wired
The Future of Digital Cash Is Not on the Blockchain
Gilad Edelman, senior writer for WIRED, covering the intersection of tech, politics, and law and formerly  executive editor of the Washington Monthly
https://www.wired.com/story/digital-cash-ecash-act/

Links — 29 Mar 2022 Part 2

The Vineyard of the Saker
Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) – Day 33
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/russian-special-military-operation-smo-day-33/

Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z/

Moon of Alabama
Ukraine SitRep - Part II Of Russia's Military Operation Unfolds
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/ukraine-sit-rep-part-ii-of-russias-military-operation-unfolds.html

Reminiscence of the Future
Few Items. Tuesday.
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issue
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/few-items-tuesday.html

Asia Times
N-war risk real; Biden’s living a dangerous fantasy
UWE PARPART AND DAVID P. GOLDMAN
https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/n-war-risk-real-bidens-living-a-dangerous-fantasy/

Dollar reserve system frays with India-Russia currency deals
David P. Goldman
https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/dollar-reserve-system-frays-with-india-russia-currency-deals/

East Asia Forum
Chinese rare earth consolidation a cause for concern
Kristin Vekasi
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/03/30/chinese-rare-earth-consolidation-a-cause-for-concern/

WSWS
How the Democratic Party prepared the war in Ukraine: Part two
Patrick Martin
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/29/dem2-m29.html

Reuters
Saudi-led coalition to halt military operations in Yemen as U.N. urges truce
Aziz El Yaakoubi
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-hosts-yemen-talks-focus-truce-with-absent-houthis-2022-03-29/

Some Wynne Godley Quotes On Planned Trade — Ramanan

There’s an interesting review of Jagdish Bhagwati’s book Protectionism published in the year 1988 by Wynne Godley in the journal Economica, year 1993. Without going into the review, I wanted to highlight how Wynne Godley’s views were quite similar to Nicholas Kaldor’s and Godley proposals such as planned trade and international cooperation of a new kind:
The Case for Concerted Action
Some Wynne Godley Quotes On Planned Trade
V. Ramanan

Big Arrow War — Scott Ritter (and more)

Scott Ritter
@RealScottRitter

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

Twitter-@RealScottRitter
Big Arrow War
Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, serving in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, on General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealScottRitter/status/1508826601198436352

h/t Footsoldier in the comments.

See also (posted in today's links, part 1)

A Son of the New American Revolution
IS RUSSIA ON THE ROPES IN UKRAINE?
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/is-russia-on-the-ropes-in-ukraine/

Also

The Vineyard of the Saker (mentions the Scott Ritter thread above)
Sitrep: Operation Z
Nightvision for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z/

How Mariupol will become a key hub of Eurasia integration — Pepe Escobar

Mariupol sits on the strategic Sea of Azov at the tip of the Black Sea, and is the 'Mecca' of Europe's steel industry. Its conquest by Russia can pave the way for a Eurasian railroad and connectivity surge....
The Cradle
How Mariupol will become a key hub of Eurasia integration
Pepe Escobar

Links — 29 Mar 2022 Part 1

A Son of the New American Revolution
Is Russia on the Ropes in Ukraine? (No. Winning bigly.)
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/is-russia-on-the-ropes-in-ukraine/

The Vineyard of the Saker
Sitrep: Russia-Ukraine Negotiations – further details revealed (endgame?)
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-russia-ukraine-negotiations-further-details-revealed/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/29/sure-ukraine-is-the-first-war-the-us-hasnt-lied-about-notes-from-the-edge-of-the-narrative-matrix/

India Punchline
China’s diplomacy on a roll in Kabul (filling the vacuum left by US withdrawal)
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/chinas-diplomacy-on-a-roll-in-kabul/

Armstrong Economics
The Coming False Flag – Chemical Weapons?
Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/the-coming-false-flag-chemical-weapons/

Dances with Bears
FOUR YEARS LATER: THE SKRIPAL CASE IS WEIRDER THAN EVER
Matt Ehret
http://johnhelmer.net/four-years-later-the-skripal-case-is-weirder-than-ever/

Strategic Culture Foundation
And What About Those Biolabs?
Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer, now Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and founding member of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity



Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter — Alexander Mihailov

Why might Putin have made this announcement? At least three key possible reasons come to mind, all related to well-known theoretical and empirical work in international monetary economics:
  • Market segmentation, arising from obstacles to the formation of a unique global market with a single price for a product (in this case, gas), allows monopolistically competitive firms (such as Gazprom in this case) to operate pricing-to-market strategies by choice of the currency of pricing in international transactions for each such segmented market.
  • A shift of the exchange-rate risk from Gazprom as exporter to its importer counterparties in the ‘unfriendly’ countries, which could potentially result in rising energy costs if the rouble gains value in a medium-to-longer run.
  • As a consequence, the move could boost demand for roubles in international forex markets, in particular by forcing the West to allow gas and oil buyers a way to purchase roubles under the current sanction regime, and thus – presumably – a way for Russia and its central bank to sell those roubles.
The combination of these three factors, and especially the final one, might potentially enhance the international role of the rouble.
vox.eu/CEPR
Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter
Alexander Mihailov

NATO-Russia Proxy War: Revealing Signs of a Fading America — Michael Hudson

Yves here. Hope you’ll enjoy hearing Michael Hudson discuss how the war in Ukraine is really a great power confrontation, as Biden made clear, and why some of the moving forces in the US might not be unhappy with disruption.

This was linked to here at MNE several days ago at a different location, but it is still relevant if you missed it. 

Naked Capitalism
NATO-Russia Proxy War: Revealing Signs of a Fading America: Michael Hudson

Bill Mitchell — Exploring the essence of MMT – Part 1

Today, I am reflecting on the evolution of the body of work known as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and responding to many E-mails I get seeking clarification about things and some that keep getting things wrong. Some of the things I write today might introduce some dissonance, which just means that those feeling that have not really got to the bottom of the matter before and thought they knew what isn’t. This blog post also forms part of my – MMT Provenance – series where I trace the development of MMT in historical terms – who said what, who were there, who weren’t etc. And it is good sometimes to reflect on your work to see where it has gone and to wonder why....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Exploring the essence of MMT – Part 1
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=49488

Monday, March 28, 2022

Biden's new budget ditches FDR-style spending ambitions — Hans Nichols

Deficit down, military spending up.
  • By focusing on deficit spending as a cause of inflation, administration officials are starting to parrot an argument Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) made in rejecting Biden’s Build Back Better agenda: new programs that aren’t fully offset can drive up prices.
  • The president also wants to assure Americans he'll increase defense spending in the face of new threats from Russia, and fund the police to keep Americans safe at home.
Axios
Biden's new budget ditches FDR-style spending ambitions
Hans Nichols

Links — 28 Mar 2022 Part 2

Reminiscence of the Future
The End Of "Azov".
Andrei Maranov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-end-of-azov.html

Moon of Alabama
Ukraine - Smoke And Mirrors Around Poisonous Peace Talks
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/ukraine-smoke-and-mirrors-around-poisonous-peace-talks.html

Newsweek
Over Half of Americans Say US Will Be—or Is—at War With Russia: Poll
Jason Lemon
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/over-half-of-americans-say-us-will-be-or-is-at-war-with-russia-poll/ar-AAVy36q

The Last Refuge
Germany Says G7 Reject Russia Demand to Pay for Oil and Gas in Rubles, Sort of
Sundance
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/28/germany-says-g7-reject-russia-demand-to-pay-for-oil-and-gas-in-rubles-sort-of/

SCMP
Two Ukraine war scenarios and what they mean for US-China power rivalry
Li Xing, professor in the Department of Politics and Society at Aalborg University, Denmark
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3171738/two-ukraine-war-scenarios-and-what-they-mean-us-china-power-rivalry

Gilbert Doctorow — International relations, Russian affairs
Great Post-Cold War AmericanThinkers on International Relations
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/03/28/great-post-cold-war-americanthinkers-on-international-relations/

Taibbi.substack.com
Meet the Censored: Chris Hedges
Matt Taibbi
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/meet-the-censored-chris-hedges


Links — 28 Mar 2022 Part 1

India Punchline
US resets the containment of Iran
MK. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-resets-the-containment-of-iran/

The Vineyard of the Saker
“Events like this happen once a century”: Sergey Glazyev on the breakdown of epochs and changing ways of life (longish)
Original Link: https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/544773 (Translated via Yandex)
http://thesaker.is/events-like-this-happen-once-a-century-sergey-glazyev-on-the-breakdown-of-epochs-and-changing-ways-of-life/

TASS (Russian state media)
No more ‘shuttle diplomacy’: Russia rebuffs West as mediator at Ukraine negotiations ("incompetent")
https://tass.com/politics/1428359 
https://sputniknews.com/20220328/those-responsible-for-torturing-russian-troops-in-ukraine-to-be-held-accountable-kremlin-says-1094255780.html

Petro-Ruble: Why Western States Will End Up Buying Russian Gas for Rubles (no free gas for you)
https://sputniknews.com/20220328/petro-ruble-why-western-states-will-end-up-buying-russian-gas-for-rubles-1094263776.html

US Seeks to Weaken Europe & Derail Russia-EU Ties, Russian Security Council Head [Nikolay Patrushev]  Says
https://sputniknews.com/20220328/us-seeks-to-weaken-europe--derail-russia-eu-ties-russian-security-council-head-says-1094262999.html

Responsible Statecraft
Daniel Larison: How Albright’s ‘Munich mindset’ turned into uninhibited interventionism
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/24/how-albrights-munich-mindset-turned-into-uninhibited-interventionism/

Oilprice
Oil Prices Drop As China Initiates Biggest Covid Lockdown In 2 Years (pandemic demand destruction)
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Drop-As-China-Initiates-Biggest-Covid-Lockdown-In-2-Years.html

Deadline For Rubles For Gas Scheme Approaches
Charles Kennedy
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Deadline-For-Rubles-For-Gas-Scheme-Approaches.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-28

Apple To Slash iPhone SE Output Next Quarter On Slumping Demand Amid Ukraine Conflict (demand destruction in Europe as increased saving against hight food and energy prices crowds out discretionary purchases)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/apple-slash-iphone-se-output-next-quarter-souring-demand-amid-ukraine-conflict

The US Solar Supply Chain Is Under Attack
Tom Kuhn, Heather Zichal & Abigail Ross Hopper via RealClear Policy
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-solar-supply-chain-under-attack

https://southfront.org/tensions-between-china-and-taiwan-escalating/

Breaking Down the Contributors to High Inflation — YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

Durable goods, non-durable goods, and services.

FRBSL
Breaking Down the Contributors to High Inflation
YiLi Chien, economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Julie Bennett, research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Sunday, March 27, 2022

Links — 27 Mar 2022 Part 3

RayMcGovern.com
MUST-READ Abridged Excerpts From Interview of Ted Postol, Professor Emeritus, MIT, with Robert Scheer

Biden Calls Openly For Removal of Putin
Ray McGovern, co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, and retired 27-year career CIA whose tasks included preparing and briefing The President’s Daily Brief and leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch
https://raymcgovern.com/2022/03/27/must-read-abridged-excerpts-from-interview-of-ted-postol-professor-emeritus-mit-with-robert-scheer/

Energy Intelligence
Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, serving in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, on General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f-c09b-d6a0-abff-f9db50620000

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Re-Visiting Russiagate In Light Of The Ukraine War
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/28/re-visiting-russiagate-in-light-of-the-ukraine-war/

Consortium News
Biden Confirms Why the US Needed This War
Joe Lauria
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/27/can-russia-escape-the-us-trap/

The Last Refuge 
Zelenskyy Worried About Western Financial Support After Video Surfaces Showing Ukraine Military Torturing Russian POW’s
Sundance
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/27/zelenskyy-worried-about-western-financial-support-after-video-surfaces-showing-ukraine-military-torturing-russian-pows/

ECNS (Chinese state-sponsored media)
Key to democracy lies in whether people are truly masters of country: Chinese ambassador (the people or the donor class)
http://www.ecns.cn/news/politics/2022-03-28/detail-ihawymkm2555611.shtml


Bill Mitchell — The current inflation still looks to be a transitory phenomenon

Inflation data continues to come in from various nations indicating an ongoing escalation in prices dominated by energy and cars (in the US), housing and transport (UK), housing and transport (Australia) and so on. The major question I always ask is this: What would you expect to happen after a major global pandemic that has lasted more than 2 years and is still not resolved and which has closed factories, ports, transport networks, made workers sick so they cannot work, choked shipping, kept people at home while governments have to varying extents maintained their income, shifted spending to home maintenance etc away from haircuts, and the rest of it. And then, add an uncompetitive cartel that manipulates supply to gouge profits (OPEC). And on top of all that have some bushfires and floods around the place. And to even top all of that have a character who thinks he is a Tsar invading a neighbour and creating havoc and destruction. What else would you expect? Oh, its all down to QE and fiscal deficits, I hear them say. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) again – now we know those ideas are defunct. We told you so! And repeat. Interest rates have to rise. Repeat. At least the ECB seems to understand the situation more than most, which is something.
Bill knows a lot more than I do about  this, but from where I sit it seems to me that there are too many balls in the air to come to any conclusion on the matter, especially in that mixed among the balls are some sharp knives. 

There are two types of uncertainty, epistemological uncertainty and ontological uncertainty. Epistemological uncertainty arises when it is not possible to calculate risk owing to known unknowns, e.,g, in designing a statistical model, as Lars Syll has explained in detail. Ontological uncertainty arises from unknown knowns resulting from changing conditions in a complex adaptive system subject to synergy and emergence. 

There are three factors affecting supply — war, pandemic, and climate change, i.e., weather. The problem with "inflation"  right now is not demand side but rather supply side, involving shortages and pass-through price rises, in particular energy but also other vital resources like metals and minerals that affect, for instance chips and fertilizer. 

These conditions infect the world system as a whole and thereby the global economy, trade, and resource availability. It always comes down to availability of real resources and there is considerable uncertainty here. For example, the US and NATO are inviting (or preparing) a false flag involving the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine that will be blamed on Russia. Such a scenario is likely, given the history false flags, and Western leaders are priming the pump with their warnings, knowingly or unknowingly. 

This could completely alter the dynamic suddenly. It could and likely would deprive Europe not only of Russian energy but also natural resources. What would the effect of that be on the European economy and the world economy. Would it be inflationary or deflationary?

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The current inflation still looks to be a transitory phenomenon
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Rationing Looms As Diesel Crisis Goes Global — Irina Slav

  • Russian refiners cut processing rates of diesel fuel.
  • Already tight diesel supply is getting even tighter.
  • Vitol’s chief executive Hardy: diesel supply shortage could trigger rationing in Europe
Oilprice
Rationing Looms As Diesel Crisis Goes Global
Irina Slav
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rationing-Looms-As-Diesel-Crisis-Goes-Global.html

Links 27 Mar 2022 Part 2

A Son of the New American Revolution
De-Militarization of Ukraine
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/de-militarization-of-ukraine/

The Vineyard of the Saker
Opinion by [Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson] María Zakharova: BioBiden
http://thesaker.is/opinion-by-maria-zakharova-biobiden/

Just a handful, not relevant, yet…
Nat South for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/just-a-handful-not-relevant-yet/

Book Review: Seven Roads to Moscow
Francis Lee for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/book-review-seven-roads-to-moscow/

RayMcGovern.com
Biden Calls Openly For Removal of Putin
Ray McGovern, co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, and retired 27-year career CIA whose tasks included preparing and briefing The President’s Daily Brief and leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch
https://raymcgovern.com/2022/03/27/biden-calls-openly-for-removal-of-putin/

RT (Russian state-sponsored media)
Macron reacts to Biden’s Putin insults
https://www.rt.com/news/552800-macron-putin-biden-ukraine/

Zero Hedge
After Biden Sparks "Global Uproar" With Regime Change Comment, Blinken Awkwardly Tries To Walk It Back
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/blinken-awkwardly-tries-walk-back-bidens-regime-change-comments-putin

Sputnik International (Russian state-sponsored media)
Poll: 52% of French Citizens Believe at Least One Argument Justifying Russian Special Op in Ukraine
https://sputniknews.com/20220327/poll-over-half-of-french-believes-at-least-one-argument-justyfying-russian-special-op-in-ukraine-1094239390.html

ECNS (Chinese official English news service)
Chinese Embassy in US
http://www.ecns.cn/news/politics/2022-03-27/detail-ihawymkm2555551.shtml

SouthFront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Shocking Evidence Of Ukrainian Regime’s Essence (Video 21+) (Updated) (Russian propaganda?)
https://southfront.org/shocking-evidence-of-ukrainian-regimes-essence-video-21/

Refugees On Crimes Of Azov Regiment (AFU) And Right Sector (Video)
https://southfront.org/refugees-on-crimes-of-azov-regiment-afu-and-right-sector-video/

Children From Mariupol On War Crimes Of Azov Militants (Video)
https://southfront.org/children-from-mariupol-on-war-crimes-of-azov-militants-video/

https://southfront.org/russian-remote-mining-system-zemledelie-spotted-in-ukraine-video/

The fragility of contemporary capitalism — C. P. Chandrasekhar

Chaos in the nickel market.

Real-World Economics Review Blog
The fragility of contemporary capitalism
C. P. Chandrasekhar
https://rwer.wordpress.com/2022/03/27/the-fragility-of-contemporary-capitalism/

Links — 27 Mar 2022 Part 1

Reminiscence of the Future
It May Seem Premature, But...
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/it-may-seem-premature-but.html

Oriental Review (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Rand Report Prescribed US Provocations Against Russia And Predicted Russia Might Retaliate In Ukraine
Rick Sterling
https://orientalreview.org/2022/03/27/rand-report-prescribed-us-provocations-against-russia-and-predicted-russia-might-retaliate-in-ukraine/

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Hillary Clinton’s State Department Spokesman Just Called For Me To Be Financially Investigated (and Lt. Col.-Congresswoman-Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard is a "Russian asset." God save us. Trump  derangement syndrome morphs into Putin derangement syndrome.)
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/27/hillary-clintons-state-department-spokesman-just-called-for-me-to-be-financially-investigated/  

Real Clear Defense
Our Elites Need to Recognize that America’s ‘Unipolar Moment’ is over  (imperial overreach)
Francis P. Sempa
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/03/24/our_elites_need_to_recognize_that_americas_unipolar_moment_is_over_823466.html

The Last Refuge
Interesting Map Shows Countries Who Support Western Govt Sanctions Against Russia vs Those Who Do Not
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/26/interesting-map-shows-countries-who-support-western-govt-sanctions-against-russia-vs-those-who-do-not/

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Links — 26 Mar 2022 Part 2

Geopolitika (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Geo-Politics is Metamorphosing in Every Moment
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy
https://katehon.com/node/82440

RUSSIA VS. ANTI-RUSSIA: INTERESTS AND VALUES (important for understanding Russia)
Alexander Dugin
https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/russia-vs-anti-russia-interests-and-values

Matthew Ehret's Insights
As New Purge of Fifth Columnists Approaches: Anatoly Chubais Jumps Ship
Matthew Ehret
https://matthewehret.substack.com/p/as-new-purge-of-fifth-columnists

Armstrong Economics
Biden Confirms this is World War III (Armstrong's "Socrates" cyclical algorithm has been signaling WWIII.)
Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/biden-confirms-this-is-world-war-iii/

RayMcGovern.com
Cold Reality Vs Nonchalant Talk of ‘Using Little Nukes’
Ray McGovern, co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, and retired 27-year career CIA whose tasks included preparing and briefing The President’s Daily Brief and leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch

Reuters
White House says Biden is not calling for regime change in Russia (Biden lets another cat out of the bag and WH walks it back.)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/white-house-says-biden-is-not-calling-regime-change-russia-2022-03-26/

Reminiscence of the Future
Ah, No...
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/ah-no.html

Turcopolier
HARPER: IS PUTIN HOLDING BACK IN UKRAINE INVASION? (questioning the dominant US political narrative about the war. Russia never planned what the US narrative claims.)
https://turcopolier.com/harper-is-putin-holding-back-in-ukraine-invasion/

SouthFront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Russian Kalibr Missiles Flying To West: Ukrainian Lviv Under Fire (Videos)
https://southfront.org/russian-kalibr-missiles-flying-to-west-ukrainian-lviv-under-fire-videos/

The Cradle
https://thecradle.co/Article/news/8304

NEO ((sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
US Afghan Military Arsenals are Up for Sale
Vladimir Platov
https://journal-neo.org/2022/03/26/us-afghan-military-arsenals-are-up-for-sale/

The Intercept
Not One Bloc or the Other: Ukraine War Shows Emerging Post-American World
Murtaza Hussain
https://theintercept.com/2022/03/26/ukraine-russia-india-africa-stance/

TASS
Import substitution in Russia’s critical areas is 80-100% - official
https://tass.com/economy/1427791

Internationalist 360º
The Battle for Mariupol is Coming to an End and Civilian Testimonies on the Crimes of Azov are Multiplying (Russia preparing war crimes tribunal)
Christelle Néant
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/03/26/the-battle-for-mariupol-is-coming-to-an-end-and-civilian-testimonies-on-the-crimes-of-azov-are-multiplying/




RT — West must avoid ‘pushing’ Russia towards China, top EU diplomat [Josep Borrell] says

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine poses threat to globalization and may create a major “division” in the world, Josep Borrell believes

The Ukrainian crisis and the West’s reaction to could “push” Russia towards China, the EU’s foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell warned as he spoke during the opening session of the Doha Forum on Saturday.

Doing so could lead to creation of a major rift between the global north and south, the diplomat said, stressing that such a scenario should be avoided.

“One of the bad consequences of what’s happening is that we can push Russia to China, and we can create a division between the global south-east and the global north-west,” Borrell stated.…
That this is state as new thinking is incredible. Has Borrell been under a rock all the while this has been going on? Did he miss hearing about Putin and Xi announcing a strategic partnership in Beijing during the Olympics? It's a fait accompli, largely as a result of 1) US foreign policy statements about global hegemony, 2) NATO expansion eastward to Russia's borders, 3) US mounting in first-strike capability in Eastern Europe, and 4) Obama's pivot to Asia.

RT (Russian state-sponsored media)
West must avoid ‘pushing’ Russia towards China, top EU diplomat [Josep Borrell] says

Links — 26 Mar 2022 Part 1

Reminiscence of the Future
Thanks To Bernhard Or About Losses, Again...
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/thanks-to-bernhard-or-about-losses-again.html

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Yes It’s A Proxy War: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/26/yes-its-a-proxy-war-notes-from-the-edge-of-the-narrative-matrix/

India Punchline
Biden’s reality check in Europe
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/bidens-reality-check-in-europe/

Moon of Alabama
Some Likely Longterm Effects Of The War In Ukraine
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/some-likely-longterm-effects-of-the-war-in-ukraine.html

The Vineyard of the Saker
One month into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine
The Saker
https://thesaker.is/one-month-into-the-russian-special-operation-in-the-ukraine/

Max Blumenthal
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/25/bbc-fixer-war-ukrainian-nationalist-pr-operative/

Turcopolier
“British intelligence operative’s involvement in Ukraine crisis signals false flag attacks ahead” Grayzone (Col. Lang comments)
Col. (ret.) Patrick Lang
https://turcopolier.com/british-intelligence-operatives-involvement-in-ukraine-crisis-signals-false-flag-attacks-ahead-grayzone/

The Unz Review
Ukraine War Lies Debunked, by Ted Rall
https://www.unz.com/trall/ukraine-war-lies-debunked/

Strategic Culture Foundation (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
India’s Ukraine Policy Becoming Focus of U.S., Western Allies
Sarwan Singh
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/03/25/india-ukraine-policy-becoming-focus-of-us-western-allies/

Counterpunch
Devastation in Postwar Afghanistan (plus the US confiscated Afghan central bank reserves leaving the people to starve.)
Baher Kamal
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/26/devastation-in-postwar-afghanistan/


Fed headed for crack up?


Mike doing some projections this week on by how much or perhaps how fast the Fed can increase its policy rates while avoiding insolvency, ie a situation where their current interest income would be exceeded by their current interest payable:






You can see here current UST yields are less than the Fed’s overnight rates (inverted) out to 8 weeks … no bueno:


To be safe they may want to somehow pivot from the current perhaps implied policy of an acceleration in the increase in their policy rates to a policy of acceleration in their rate of asset/liability reduction… keep an eye out for this pivot…






Ukraine: The Elites’ Piggy Bank


Current MAGA breakdown of Ukraine situation with Bannon and Revolver News:





Friday, March 25, 2022

Zero Hedge — Demand Destruction Has Begun [JP Morgan]

One month ago, Brent jumped above $100/bbl for the first time in eight years as Russia executed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and it became clear that western governments would impose sanctions. The oil market has been in triple digits for practically the entire time since.

And, after a month of oil prices we have not seen in nearly a decade and weeks of record-high fuel prices, JPMorgan has published a research report (available to pro subs) which finds that high-frequency data suggest that consumers are beginning to react resulting in what the Fed has desperately wanted to achieve all along: commodity demand destruction....
Zero Hedge
Demand Destruction Has Begun [JP Morgan]
Tyler Durden

Forthcoming Book: RUSSIAN TSELOSTNOST’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics — Gordon Hahn

Understanding the background of Russian thought and culture. (primarily of scholarly interest.)

Russian and Eurasian Politics
Forthcoming Book: RUSSIAN TSELOSTNOST’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics
Gordon Hahn | Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis GroupM.

Zero Hedge — US & G7 Allies Go After Russia's Ability To Sell Its Gold As Sanctions Evasion 'Lifeline'

It bears recalling that chairman of the Russia's Congressional energy committee, Pavel Zavalny, said in a press conference on Thursday - as we detailed earlier - that Russia is open to accepting different currencies for its exports, beginning with natural gas, depending on the buyer’s preferred method of payment, and also "hard money" like gold. However, the chairman said terms will depend on the importing country’s foreign relations status with Russia....
It works two ways.

Zero Hedge
US & G7 Allies Go After Russia's Ability To Sell Its Gold As Sanctions Evasion 'Lifeline'
Tyler Durden

The Saker interviews Michael Hudson

Following Putin’s announcement about selling gas for Rubles only to hostile nations, I decided to reach out to Michael Hudson and ask him (my level, primitive) questions. Here is our full email exchange:
The Vineyard of the Saker
The Saker interviews Michael Hudson
Andrei Raevsky interviews Michael Hudson, President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

Demanding roubles for gas is a victory for Putin — Philip Pilkington

 The Russian's decision is accelerating the shift away from US-led dominance

Unherd
Demanding roubles for gas is a victory for Putin
Philip Pilkington
https://unherd.com/thepost/demanding-rubles-for-gas-is-a-victory-for-putin/




Links — 25 Mar 2022 Part 2

Gilbert Doctorow
Media watch: when parallel lines converge, stand clear!
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/03/25/media-watch-when-parallel-lines-converge-stand-clear/

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/03/25/an-open-letter-to-british-pm-boris-johnson-a-modest-proposal-of-a-prisoner-exchange/
Gilbert Doctorow

Pearls and Irritations
M K Bhadrakumar : Zelensky rubbishes Biden’s war on Russia
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://johnmenadue.com/m-k-bhadrakumar-zelensky-rubbishes-bidens-war-on-russia/

The Vineyard of the Saker
Two more briefings: Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy and Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev
http://thesaker.is/speech-of-the-head-of-the-main-operational-directorate-of-the-general-staff-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-colonel-general-sergei-rudskoy/

Economics as Classical Physics
The 23rd anniversary of NATO bombings: China and Serbia will never forget
Economics as Classical Mechanics (video)
Ivan Kitov
http://mechonomic.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-23rd-anniversary-of-nato-bombings.html

Oilprice
Lithium Price Surge Jeopardizes Energy Transition Efforts
Charles Kennedy
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Lithium-Price-Surge-Jeopardizes-Energy-Transition-Efforts.html

EU Inks LNG Deal With U.S. To Replace Russian Gas (US cannot make the shortfall.)
Irina Slav
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/EU-Inks-LNG-Deal-With-US-To-Replace-Russian-Gas.html

AntiWar
Pentagon Says Russian Military Leaders Repeatedly Declining 'Deconfliction' Calls
Dave DeCamp
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/03/23/pentagon-says-russian-military-leaders-have-repeatedly-declined-calls-with-us-counterparts/

Zero Hedge
IMF Warns Countries May Cut Dollar Reserves In Response To US Sanctions Against Russia (Duh)
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/imf-warns-countries-may-cut-dollar-reserves-response-us-sanctions-against-russia

10 Unintended Consequences Of A Protracted Russia/Ukraine War According To JPMorgan
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/10-unintended-consequences-protracted-russiaukraine-war-according-jpmorgan

Russian Central Bank Starts Buying Gold (when a central bank buys gold from commercial banks it creates deposit in those banks that are offset by adding gold as central bank asset. This increases the domestic currency in the private sector without incurring a fiscal deficit. Banks that receive the deposits from the central bank credit them to the accounts of the miners that supply the banks. This injects currency in to the private sector. This is different from QE in that the bonds the central bank purchases are financial assets, hence a change in term but not amount, whereas gold is a commodity.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russian-central-bank-starts-buying-gold

Geopolitika (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
Canceling Russian reserves boomerangs to a new international monetary system
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy
https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/canceling-russian-reserves-boomerangs-new-international-monetary-system

https://tass.com/politics/1427341
https://tass.com/politics/1427617

Sputnik International
India, China Discuss ‘Disturbed’ Bilateral Ties Amid ‘Abnormal’ Situation at Border
https://sputniknews.com/20220325/india-china-discuss-disturbed-bilateral-ties-amid-abnormal-situation-at-border-1094185593.html

Scholars: West Well Aware of Racism, Neo-Nazism & Atrocities in Ukraine But Keeps It on Hush-Hush (fear of being cancelled?)
https://sputniknews.com/20220325/scholars-west-well-aware-of-racism-neo-nazism--atrocities-in-ukraine-but-keeps-it-on-hush-hush-1094201705.html

NATO Being Persuaded to Deploy Troops in Western Ukraine & This is Insanity, US Military Expert [Scott Ritter] Says
Ekaterina Bilnova
https://sputniknews.com/20220325/nato-being-persuaded-to-deploy-troops-in-western-ukraine--this-is-insanity-us-military-expert-says-1094185004.html

West Has Declared a Hybrid 'Total War' on Russia, Lavrov Says (act of desperation, last gasp of "white" global dominance?)
https://sputniknews.com/20220325/west-has-declared-a-hybrid-all-out-war-on-russia-lavrov-says-1094178805.html

RT (Russian state-sponsored media)
Ukraine crisis marks the end of globalization [and beginning of higher inflation] – BlackRock
https://www.rt.com/news/552720-blackrock-sees-globalism-ending

SouthFront (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)
NATO Divided Over Support For Ukraine While Russia Creates New Economic Reality
https://southfront.org/russia-creates-new-economic-reality/

The Intercept
RIP Madeleine Albright and Her Awful, Awful Career
Jon Schwarz
https://theintercept.com/2022/03/25/madeleine-albright-dead-iraq-war-herbalife/