After posting a surplus of $20B in December followed by a $33B deficit in January, the government's fiscal injections of $NFA have swung around to recent highs through the
21st of February.
Through February 21st, net withdrawals from the Treasury account total $347B while net deposits are at $163B for a fiscal deficit ex-post result of $184B, again through just the 21st. TTM data reports this deficit flow average at a bit under $90B per month so February is currently tracking towards a recent monthly high delta.
A highlight on the withdrawal side for February is the total for IRS Tax Refunds (Individual) of $76B which is contributing substantially to this months out-sized net withdrawals. This large amount of seasonal $NFA injection more than offsets the system level $NFA removal effects of the 2% payroll tax increase that went into effect January 1st; the effects of which are estimated at a cet par net removal of $10-12B per month.
Perhaps look for a short term increase in retail sales to close out February as any poor January results and early February warnings (such as that heard
from Wal-Mart ) related to the recent 2% payroll tax increase may be counter-enabled by this strong seasonal tax refunding form of $NFA injection.
Short term, the system is being supplied with $NFA at an adequate rate to prevent systemic instability and associated systemic liquidation.
