Andrew Gelman — N=1 survey tells me Cynthia Nixon will lose by a lot (no joke)

One way that heuristic thinking works.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
N=1 survey tells me Cynthia Nixon will lose by a lot (no joke)
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Andrew Gelman — The fallacy of the excluded middle — statistical philosophy edition

Some philosophy of statistics. Short read. Not wonkish.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The fallacy of the excluded middle — statistical philosophy edition
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Lars P. Syll — Dutch books and money pumps

According to Keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty – not quantifiable stochastic risk – which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations. Sometimes we ‘simply do not know.’ Keynes would not have accepted the view of Bayesian economists, according to whom expectations “tend to be distributed, for the same information set, about the prediction of the theory.” Keynes, rather, thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or ‘weight’ we put on different events and alternatives. To Keynes, expectations are a question of weighing probabilities by ‘degrees of belief,’ beliefs that have precious little to do with the kind of stochastic probabilistic calculations made by the rational agents modelled by Bayesian economists.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Dutch books and money pumps
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Brad DeLong — Must-Read: Andrew Gelman and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi: Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

Assuming the conclusion and curve-fitting.

WCEG
Must-Read: Andrew Gelman and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi: Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

Brad DeLong

Matheus Grasselli — Keynes, Bayes, and the law

Matheus takes on Phil Pilkington and Lars Syll in defense of Bayesianism. I don't think we've heard the end of this.

Quantitative Finance: Foundations and Applications
Keynes, Bayes, and the law
Matheus Grasselli | Fields Institute