Assumptions are extremely important. If they’re wrong, everything which follows is probably wrong too. So when analysts don’t make their assumptions clear to policy makers, but instead try to pass them off as facts, there’s a great danger that poor decisions will result.
What brings this to mind is a new report by Duncan Allan, published by Chatham House and entitled Managed Confrontation: UK Policy Towards Russia After the Salisbury Attack....While what professor Robinson says is clearly correct, I assume, on the other hand, that his analysis is mooted. That is to say, the British elite are fully aware of this and that the report is simply a propaganda piece churned out by Chatham House to drum up of Anglo-American confrontation with Russia.
The Europeans would be wise to see the UK go rather than have a snake in their midst.
Irrussianality
AssumptionsPaul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa
