The big news in the world of Wall Street calls today was Citi's Edward Morse calling the end of the commodity Super-Cycle. The argument, basically, is that the age of investment-led Chinese growth is over (giving the way to household consumption-led growth) and that this shift would have a profound negative impact on the rate of demand growth in all sorts of industrial commodities. Add in booming supply in more areas (E.G. Iraq and US oil) and you have the case for the end of the great commodity bull run. And really this is huge given how long the commodity bull story has been a thing.
So should you listen to Morse?
Well beyond the logic of his call (which is spelled out in a note that's over 100 pages) he also has one well-timed call to his name
Take a time machine back to 2008, back when he was at Lehman, and oil was going into the nosebleeds....
Business Insider
The Analyst Calling The End Of The Commodity Boom Has Made One Spectacularly Timed Call You Need To Know AboutJoe Weisenthal
Randy Wray, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Edward Morse.
