Showing posts with label Lorie Tarshis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lorie Tarshis. Show all posts

Monday, January 28, 2013

Philip Pilkington: Purging Economics of Religion – A Rebuttal to Robert Nelson’s Defence of The Great Chain of Being


On several occasions I've referred to Robert Nelson's Economics as Religion: From Samuelson to Chicago and Beyond. Philip Pilkington provides an excellent review and critique, explaining neoclassical general and partial equilibrium v. Wynne Godley's stock-flow equilibrium.

Central to the Old Keynesian and Post Keynesian v. Neoclassical and New Keynesian controversy, as well as calling out economic moralizing for what it is.

Naked Capitalism
Philip Pilkington: Purging Economics of Religion – A Rebuttal to Robert Nelson’s Defence of The Great Chain of Beingg

The only way I can think to improve on this post is to add a quotation from Randy Wray about High Priest Paul Samuelson:
The reaction to our post on the nine myths also reminded me of an interview Nobel winner Paul Samuelson gave to Mark Blaug (in his film on Keynes, “John Maynard Keynes: Life/Ideas/Legacy 1995″). There Samuelson said:

“I think there is an element of truth in the view that the superstition that the budget must be balanced at all times [is necessary]. Once it is debunked [that] takes away one of the bulwarks that every society must have against expenditure out of control. There must be discipline in the allocation of resources or you will have anarchistic chaos and inefficiency. And one of the functions of old fashioned religion was to scare people by sometimes what might be regarded as myths into behaving in a way that the long-run civilized life requires. We have taken away a belief in the intrinsic necessity of balancing the budget if not in every year, [then] in every short period of time. If Prime Minister Gladstone came back to life he would say “uh, oh what you have done” and James Buchanan argues in those terms. I have to say that I see merit in that view.”

In other words, the need to balance the budget over some time period determined by the movements of celestial objects, or over the course of a business cycle is a myth, an old-fashioned religion. But that superstition is seen as necessary because if everyone realizes that government is not actually constrained by the necessity of balanced budgets, then it might spend “out of control”, taking too large a percent of the nation’s resources. Samuelson sees merit in that view.

It is difficult not to agree with him. But what if the religious belief in budget balance makes it impossible to spend on the necessary scale to achieve the public purpose? In the same film James Buchanan argues that the budget ought to be balanced except in wartime—and while he does not explicitly endorse Samuelson’s argument that this is nothing but a useful myth, he does imply that there is no financial/economic/solvency reason for balancing the budget. Rather, it is to keep government in check, to ensure it does not grow and absorb too many of the nation’s resources. Ironically, Buchanan’s willingness to deficit-spend in wartime seems to imply that the US ought to almost always run deficits since we are almost always at war with someone. Hence, he seems to advocate nearly permanent budget deficits—no doubt unintentionally. Many might question that position on the argument that if it is OK to run deficits to destroy one’s enemy then it surely makes sense to run deficits to build a strong nation. Indeed, older readers of this blog will remember that our nation got interstate hiways on the argument that this is good for national defense, and that many of us got through college on “national defense student loans”. [emphasis added]

Sunday, November 25, 2012

circuit — Old Keynesian themes in Modern Monetary Theory


circuit weighs in on MMT and Paul Krugman's post today, and he finds that the ideas that this is based on were articulated by the "Old Keynesians" decades ago.

Some good quotes to save for future use, too.

Fictional Reserve Barking
Old Keynesian themes in Modern Monetary Theory
circuit

Monday, December 5, 2011

Lorie Tarshis on the effect of a general change in wage rates


The effect of a general change in wage rates upon employment and the value of the national income is decidedly uncertain because we are compelled to consider the results not only of a change of costs but also of a change in aggregate demand. While costs will presumably move in the same direction as wage rates, demand may move in the same direction but even further, or less far, or it may shift in the opposite direction.
In order to analyze the effects of a wage change upon demand, we must deal with its effects upon each of demand's four determinants: private investment, the consumption function, government purchases, and net exports. When we proceed along these lines, we find that our uncertainty is compounded. The answer seems to be extremely sensitive to the nature of the response of businessmen, the reactions of buyers, and the behavior of banks. This should not be surprising. The economy, as we have pointed out before, is not a machine. Its responses are the responses of human beings, and if they cannot be forecast or if they can be predicted only when all the circumstances are known, the effect on the economy of any change will be uncertain. [emphasis added]
Lorie Tarshis, Modern Economics: An Introduction (Houghton Mifflin, 1967), p. 532-533

The contemporary push for austerity can be viewed as part of the attempt to reduce wages of workers in developed countries in order to increase the competitiveness of these countries in the global marketplace where labor is now fungible. As Tarshis points out, wage cost reduction may involve unforeseen consequences. Uncertainty often comes with surprises.