Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Eamonn Fingleton — After the Financial Times buyout, let’s stop belittling Japan’s success




Financial Times sold to Japanese media group Nikkei for £844m
For decades the Financial Times has hardly had a good word to say about the Japanese economy. It is a special irony therefore that the paper’s longtime British owner, the Pearson group, has now agreed to sell it to the Tokyo-based Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) group.
How come it is Nikkei that is buying the FT, not the other way around? After all, the two companies have cooperated since at least as far back as the 1980s, and during most of that time the FT people have tended to condescend to their Japanese counterparts.
The truth is that Nikkei is a much stronger enterprise than the FT. This reflects the fact that the Japanese economy has been doing much better than successive FT correspondents – and their colleagues elsewhere in the anglophone media – have noticed.

One key factor that has led foreign observers to go astray is ideology: because Japan does not believe in Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”, its economic workings are reflexively belittled by many anglophone correspondents. FT correspondents in particular have long been blind to the long-term efficacy of the Japanese higher bureaucracy’s agenda – an agenda that has focused particularly on developing the nation’s prowess in manufactured exports. They generally eschew services because services typically need to be performed close to the customer and thus are much weaker exporters.
For nearly a century and a half, Japanese officials have been highly successful in “industrial targeting”. If they want to achieve global dominance in any particular industry, they take direct aim at foreign competitors and have little compunction about systematically weakening them. Hence, for instance, the fate of such once world-beating British industries as textile equipment, shipbuilding, motorcycles and compact family cars.…
The strength of the Japanese economy is evident in many other ways. Take healthcare. …. The key driver has been improvements in Japan’s socialist medical system.…

Another telling indicator is unemployment. As newly arrived foreign companies quickly discover, there is no reserve army of the unemployed.….
As for the FT, its takeover is consistent with a long-term trend for more and more of the commanding heights of the British economy to come under foreign control. Previous examples have included Corus, Cadbury, Pilkington and Jaguar. The difference is that this time, Britain is losing part of its soul.
The Guardian
After the Financial Times buyout, let’s stop belittling Japan’s success
Eamonn Fingleton

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Me against Jeffrey Gundlach

I gotta confess, I'm long the yen. I know I'm crazy, but I'm long the yen.

You may have seen this: Jeffrey Gundlach is killing it being short yen.

So why am I going against this guy who's one of the world's best known money managers and who's currently, "killing it" being short the yen?

Here's why...

I'll start by saying that besides Gundlach, there are several other "well known" people who are short yen or who have been advising people to short the yen. They are people like Peter Schiff, Axel Merk and Kyle Bass. I'm sorry, but when those three stooges get together on a theme, wild horses can't keep me from betting against them. All I need now is for John Paulson to say he's going short the yen and I will mortgage everything I have to add to this position. By the way, they're all short because of...you guessed it...fears of BoJ "money printing" and insolvency.

And the three stooges have a lot of company. Open interest and short positions by speculators (including small specs, who are considered the dumb money) is just off record levels. Commericals are long.

Since the election the yen has sold off something like 500 basis points against the dollar, or about 6%. That's all been due to aggressive yen shorting.

The new government believes it is "out of money," so an outright fiscal expansion underpinned by printing yen, is out of the question.

Prime minister Abe has been pressuring the BoJ and the BoJ has responded by saying it will "buy more assets." Great...more QE, that is just an asset swap and does nothing to weaken the yen.

The new government is also very close to the corporate sector and it is believed that it will soon give the ok to restart the nuclear reactors, which have been shut down since the quake. If so, this will go far to reverse Japan's current trade deficit, which came about solely as a result of massive oil imports to meet energy needs.

The markets believe this to be true and imminent, as shares in Japanese power companies have been surging.

So...Japan and the BoJ are doing nothing to create net new yen financial assets. The nukes will be restarted soon and the dumb money is shorting the yen like crazy.

If that's not a prescription for a yen rally, a big, big, BIG, one, I don't know what is.