Fort Russ
[Central] Banker:Russian inflation will be about 3% in early 2018 - economy continues to grow despite US sanctions
Paul Antonopoulos
An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Moody’s Investors Service has changed the outlook for Russia’s sovereign ratings to stable from negative.
Russia’s issuer rating and the rating for Russian government bonds have been affirmed at Ba1, and the short-term rating has been affirmed at Not Prime, the rating agency said in a press release....Johnson's Russia List
All indications of current head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, are that, while maintaining some constitutional autonomy, she is also “very keen to provide money to the government one way or another” to finance any future federal budgets, Aleksashenko said. And monetary finance, “definitely leads to inflation, sooner or later,” he added.Happily he is out of job in the Russian government and Nabiullina is in. Maybe MMT will catch on someday.
In other words, we have many, many moving parts to one equation. One can't tell the dominant one, or which are likely to last longer, but my sense is that majority of these forces are temporary and the long-run link between Ruble and oil price will be regained.
Now, assuming oil price dynamics remain where they are today (weak upside), Ruble is likely to devalue again, back to USD/RUB 55-57 range. If inflation does not fall toward 10% in Q2 2015 (and I do not think it will), we are likely to see Ruble move into USD/RUB 60-65 range over this quarter. On the other hand, improved outlook for the economy (signalling, say annual contraction closer to 3.5-4 percent) can see Ruble staying within the USD/RUB 50-53 range.True Economics
Chris Weafer, an esteemed, long-term financial analyst in Moscow gives his summary of Russia's economic situation at this stage of the standoff between the U.S., its European allies and Russia. Chris has remained totally neutral in his analysis over the years, is not involved with the Kremlin and has been a boon to American and European investors over the years.Russia: Other Points of View