I really did not like what I saw in the Q1 GDP report. Both personal consumption expenditures and state and local government spending was either slowing (PCE) or contracting (state and local gov't).
This is not good.
Maybe it's temporary like some are saying, perhaps due to weather.
We'd better hope so because at the same time, Federal Government spending is no longer growing vis-a-vis last year. I don't know if that's related to the debt ceiling or the budget or what, but if the Federal government is slowing along with household spending and local and state government's contracting then the economy is in real trouble and headed for recession.
What will happen to the dollar?
If the U.S. goes into recession I expect the dollar to get slammed.