Showing posts with label dinosaurs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dinosaurs. Show all posts

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Ask Not For Whom The Buck Stops. It Stops For You.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Bill Mitchell drops what should be a bombshell for the dimwits among NeoLiberal economists & their captive policy ideologues .... except that they're too dense and plodding to even notice!
‘Overt Monetary Financing’ (OMF), where the European Central Bank (ECB) uses its currency-issuing capacity to underwrite the [private savings] of the [growing Member Populations] is universally considered to be taboo among neo-liberals because they wrongly claim it will lead to hyperinflation.

Right-sizing sovereign currency supply to track population & economic dynamics is taboo? To whom? Dinosaurs?

What do you call a supposed brain that doesn't even notice - or care - that the blood supply ceased, and the heart stopped beating? Dead Culture Walking? That fleeting instant before it becomes officially brain dead?

If the population AND its demand for both transaction rate AND its diversity of transaction chains are all growing, then any grasp of dynamic systems would recognize that both currency supply AND currency distribution should follow those inputs dynamically, as a DEPENDENT VARIABLE.

In fact, that is EXACTLY what any currency system is supposed to do. Further, meeting that dynamic agility is exactly what led to evolution of fiat currency systems.

It should be clear to any high school student that a nation's currency system is quite analogous to their own body's circulatory system. How much net "flow" is required, and any required distribution of flow, is driven by circumstance-driven activity, as distributed pulls, not as a Central Planning push.

Does "hyper-inflation" of your blood supply occur very often? Does ANY demand to increase circulatory flow, either transiently or as a growth trend, automatically doom you to circulatory hyper-inflation? No? Why not? Why, precisely because functional physiologies have evolved multiple, feed-back driven, automatic stabilizers that dynamically right-size net and distributed circulatory flow to what ever state is demanded by context.

It takes a very screwed up circulatory system, and physiology, to allow one sector to die of gangrene.

Similarly, what on earth is so difficult about dynamically right-sizing currency supply for the highly-distributed, unpredictable needs of a dynamically chaotic national economy which also features trend growth?

Do nation-based human cultures have analogous feedback & auto-regulatory control systems, for keeping currency supply & circulation right-sized and right-distributed? Sure, they're called Aggregate Demand reporting systems, licensed banks, regulatory agencies, Central Banks, Treasury Agencies, and elected governments.

Our only problem is whether such institutions are staffed with zombie idiots ignoring one another, or by functionally intelligent citizens interested, willing & able to create a whole that is greater than the sum of its growing parts.

Why should any nation constrict the currency supply via the arbitrary decisions of too-few Central Planners, who are isolated from the full range of nation-wide feedback? Now we're just back to discussing how large populations can still be economically brain dead!

Let me repeat. The whole frigging point of a fiat currency system is to let distributed fiat - aka, Public Initiative - dictate the automatic creation AND DESTRUCTION of transaction-demanded currency, when & where needed. [Yes, licensed, regulated banks denominate endogenous fiat currency, yet they also destroy it as private loans are paid down. Most fraud involves under-regulated loans and under-regulated fees, not the existence or volume of fiat currency itself.]

Fiat currency simply denominates occurring transactions. In a large, growing economy, conflating the liquidity units with a stable store of value (and a preferred, long-term savings vehicle) are contradictory goals. Such scale-dependent oddities are easy tasks to work around, for those with the minimum of determination and intelligence. Citizens of multiple countries solved that rudimentary task over 80 years ago, and the history of diverse examples go back over 2000 years. If you can learn algebra 101, you can grasp fiat currency systems.

If you're worried about currency supply zooming to toxic levels, then please study ways to regulate the independent variable - the range of allowable transactions to be denominated - and NOT the dependent variable, the transaction-driven notation of liquidity units. Note that that sensible option runs into another conundrum, the desire of Control Frauds to allow vs regulate White Collar Crime. If you want a more organized system, then no, you cannot always do exactly what you personally want, whenever you happen to want to do it. Democracy and human culture require dynamic tolerance limits. Luckily, we're (potentially) intelligent enough to handle this, but only if we put some effort into practicing.

You either want a functioning democracy, evolving by constant practice, or you're willing to descend into anarchy.

How does a growing aggregate of evolving members avoid anarchy? Simply, by distributed practice. Just see what works, by tallying all feedback, and trying different things. We need selected methods and operations that work, not just stated outcomes. As one of many examples, Bill Mitchell's blog entry ends up discussing strategies for how member nations can exit a dysfunctional currency union. Yet he presents that as an option ONLY if the alternative option of introducing intelligent control of banking operations is exhausted, or considered beyond the capabilities of the isolated dimwits to whom we have given the keys to policy offices.

Where does this leave OUR aggregate? With a simple reminder. If war is too important to be left to the Generals, then surely EVERY democratic process is too important to be left to the PRESUMED process owners? Perhaps our dynamic currency supply needs are too important to be left to economists? Ya THINK???

How many economists know even the slightest thing about banking operations? Or understand the analogy to highly dynamic circulatory systems?

The answer is obvious, since we clearly have too many so-called economists worried about currency hyper-inflation, while failing to sense their own intellectual hyper-deflation. Why on Earth are YOU electing these inadequate people to national policy offices?

Ask not for whom the buck stops, it stops for you.









Friday, December 20, 2013

A Rare Mention of Aggregate Demand, [Median] Consumer Income and Spending in the Popular Press

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Biologists would integrate some concepts in economics, and suggest we move on to exploring our expanding levels of cultural options.

Economic rent = personal-hoarding;
Culture            = hoarding of coordination skills; [aka, group-hoarding]
  Cultural growth = return on coordinating rent&culture; [team-member & teamwork]
  Electorates wielding group intelligence can do this. Some better than others.

Will this catch on? It's only a matter of time.

More of the popular press is catching on, to the fact that the "new normal" that is setting in ... is normally not considered to be a positive development? In fact, all the lost output is a permanent setback, and a real disaster. Maybe next year you'll even see this sort of discussion dominating YOUR local media channels. We can only hope.

Mike Whitney, Counterpunch:
America's Missing Investors - Did Someone Say “Crash”?
"Bottom line: Net investment is down because there’s no demand."
                                     ...
"So, tell me: Why would a businessman invest in an economy where people are too broke to buy his products?"
                                     ... 
"And that’s what the Fed’s zero rate policy does. It’s incentivizing businesses to use their capital in a way that’s damaging to the real economy."
                                    ... 
"personal consumption [growth rate] has dropped from 3.6% to 1.1%?!?"
                                    ... 
"There’s really no way the US economy can rebound without a dramatic reversal in the current fiscal policy."
                                    ... 
"So why is Wall Street taking such dire warnings in their stride, you ask? It’s because investors no longer pay attention to the fundamentals. Demand doesn’t matter. Earnings don’t matter. What matters is the Fed and the Fed alone."

And, the article Mike Whitney refers to.

Rex Nutting, MarketWatch:
No one is investing in tomorrow’s economy. Commentary: Net investment still at lowest levels since Depression

No one will mistake either of these authors for experts in currency operations, but the publicity they bring is nevertheless helpful.
"Some economists fear that the slowdown in capex investment may be permanent."
For Pete's sake! That's what the dinosaurs feared too. Orthodox economists are dinosaurs? Do those people who believe in free will also believe in collective free will? And in group intelligence, not just the local intelligence of isolated individuals?

This author suggests that it's taking time to "recover from all the reckless investments we made in dot-coms, McMansions and shopping malls."

Yet what if the net policies of the USA have made us into one, giant, reckless investment?

Our investment in democracy can't improve without improved national policies? Ya think? Note to all citizens: improving national policy is not the Fed's job, although they, like all of us, have to speak truth to ALL their fellow citizens, including those in power.

After all this, Rex Nutting comes to a conclusion.
"But once businesses figure out that they need to expand their capacity in order to compete, investment will rebound, and the economy will too."
??  He just finished reviewing demand-led investment, yet contradicts himself and reverts to orthodoxy as a safe conclusion.  So close, yet so far. What about speaking truth to power? Or to oneself? Why review context, and then tell us to ignore it?

Compete with whom?
Invest where?

Likely not in the USA. Rather, wherever the public policy of some nation allows the largest net growth in aggregate demand?

All economic data always sums up a conflict between two, basic hoarding behaviors.

Scaling up personal-hoarding ["rent"] kills culture but preserves components.

Scaling up hoarding of coordination skills allows group-hoarding, which can threaten non-cooperative components.

Hence the contradiction which we always need to maneuver through, under, over and around. Compound growth zooms when we integrate both forms of growth, rather than letting them act in blind opposition. Then, we grow our culture AND keep all citizen-components alive (by constantly improving skills at repurposing citizen components; survival tracks net agility of groups; i.e., their maneuverability, which tracks their ability to reconfigure all interdependencies).

Our rate of adroitly coordinating those seemingly conflicting behavioral demands is what grows culture while keeping citizen-components adaptive.

We can do this the smart, smooth, fast way, or the dumb, intermittent, violent way. Adaptive races are no different than any other race. Slow is smooth and smooth is fast.

It boils down to selective focus. 

Slow adjustment of only the most adaptive changes. [Don't overtly kill momentum. Collectively set your culture's racing path.]

Smooth adjustments, of what is changed. [Don't subtly kill momentum. Keep your cultural-vehicle close to it's race path. No zigs & zags.]

Fast progress of our whole cultural system through unpredictable obstacle courses.  [Don't exit your cultural-vehicle in the middle of an adaptive-race track. Need this even be stated? Only to traitorous Libertarians wanting to run off with & sit on their static assets, rather than use culture as a force-extension tool.]