Zero Hedge — Fourth Turning's Neil Howe: Why Millennials Aren't So Unique

Neil Howe looks at the economic aspect of demographics.

Zero Hedge
Fourth Turning's Neil Howe: Why Millennials Aren't So Unique

Tyler Durden

Jean Twenge — How the smartphone affected an entire generation of kids

This is an important article socially, politically and economically based on its implications.

While there is a "digital divide" between analog people and digitally capable people, the more significant divide is between those that grew up in the transition to the digital age, with the introduction of mass computing in around 1980. The Apple II was introduced in 1977.

The most significant digital divide generationally is between analog natives and digital natives. Now a further iteration is coming to light. The divide between smart technology natives and those previous to it.

In this environment, analog natives are being left behind, even though they may be digitally capable but are not digitally native. It is a deep difference in culture.

Something similar happened at the time of the countercultural revolution. I was in the preceding generation but not by much and I opted to burn bridges and join the movement. As a result I live in a very different world from that inhabited by the people with whom I grew up. 

I was also on the cusp of the movement away from classical liberal arts education, where there was a sharp division in high school between college track and trade track. In the classical liberal tradition, college track included study of Latin and Greek for reading the classics in the original language. Serious writing was littered with allusion that would be opaque to those without a classical education. That is over now and has almost been forgotten.

Something similar is happening with the proliferation of digital technology. It's a new world. And his will have enormous implications across the board.

The Conversation
How the smartphone affected an entire generation of kids

Jean Twenge | Professor of Psychology, San Diego State University

Also

I agree about learning to code, along with reading, writing and 'rithmetic. It's a component of literacy in the digital age.

Ideally, children should also learn two languages from infancy. Presently, this only happens in bi-lingual  households. The research is in, showing that the benefits are significant, and it should be introduced culturally as early as possible.

This is already happening in many countries where knowing more than one language is essential. Technology now makes this possible. For example, in bi-lingual households, often grandparents don't live near the children but talk to them daily via digital technology.

Futurism
A Computing Pioneer Says It’s Never Too Early to Teach Kids to Code
Karla Lant

Michael Krieger — Americans are Rapidly Descending Into Madness

This is interesting post. It reflects a key strain of thought at the time of the craziness over Vietnam that led to the countercultural revolution, communalism, the underground economy, etc. Most people that grew up after that period are unaware of the profound shift that took place in American culture from mid-Sixties (seeded by the Beat Generation of the late Fifties) to the mid-Seventies. The transition was complete by the late Seventies and America set off on another generational round at the time of the Reagan presidency.

Krieger's post, with which I identify from those times, suggests that something similar may be happening. This would accord with the generational theory of Strauss and Howe and also suggested by Ravi Batra in The New Golden Age: The Coming Revolution against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos.

Interesting also, Krieger calls for raising the level of collective consciousness as an antidote to the mass craziness, something that also characterized the period of the countercultural revolution in America and the a renewed interest in spirituality apart from institutional religions. Now meditation is a household word in the West, recommended by health professionals and adopted as a management technique.

According to Stauss & Howe, the Sixties generation was one characterized by Awakening and I agree that this is an apt characterization of what transpired then. However, the present cycle of generational change is characterized by crisis, and that also seems to be the case. This period is a phase transition to the next generational cycle. It is a period of destruction before a new period of reconstruction.

Liberty Blitzkrieg
Americans are Rapidly Descending Into Madness
Michael Krieger

Stratfor — The Apocalyptic Vision of Stephen K. Bannon

Useful short summary of Strauss & Howe's generational theory, chiefly The Fourth Turning, and Steve Bannon's interpretation of its implications for America and the world.

Financial Sense
The Apocalyptic Vision of Stephen K. Bannon

Stratfor

Reuven Brenner — Past perfect – Stephen K. Bannon’s generational view of history

One of the best assessments of Steve Bannon I have encountered. It is based the major influences on the development of Bannon's social, political and economic perspective as a strategist and political thinker. And it has the added advantage of being a short read.

Asia Times
Past perfect — Stephen K. Bannon’s generational view of historyReuven Brenner | Repap Chair at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management

Where did Steve Bannon get his worldview? From my book.

"Bannon's brain."

The Washington Post
Where did Steve Bannon get his worldview? From my book.

Neil Howe, co- author with William Strauss of “Generations,” “The Fourth Turning” and “Millennials Rising.”

Bill Mitchell — Upward mobility declines sharply as the rich make off with the growth

Decline of socioeconomic mobility is at least as serious a social and political problem as inequality of wealth and income. There is a lot of attention on inequality lately and not enough on declining socio-economic mobility — the end of the American Dream in which the next generation not only enjoys a higher stand of living than the previous but the children move up the social and economic scale, being better educated and employed at a higher level, as well as being more prosperous.

As Bill says, this is "unsustainable." Something has to give.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Upward mobility declines sharply as the rich make off with the growth
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Yves Smith — More on the Economic Hardship of Young Adults

In the US, the cost of the aftermath of the crisis has fallen heavily on young people, mainly due to bad policy responses to the crisis that we’ve described at length as it was happening: the failure to restructure bad loans (particularly mortgages) and impose costs on banks and investors, not just homeowners; the refusal to engage in enough fiscal spending, not just during the crisis but in deficit fights during the Obama Administration. That isn’t to say that other groups haven’t suffered too. Remember that older, less educated whites have suffered a decline in lifespans, which is unheard in anything other than post-USSR economic collapse. And even though some people in their 50s and 60s are sitting pretty, virtually all the ones I know outside McKinsey and top Wall Street circles are looking at working till they drop.

But young people have suffered in a very large way and don’t have any reason to expect much improvement. And the impact on them of diminished earnings early in their career is more serious than taking a hit for a similarly long period later in one’s working life. Various studies have found that lower earnings at the start of one’s career lead to diminished lifetime earnings....

Naked Capitalism
More on the Economic Hardship of Young Adults
Yves Smith

Julia Mead — Why Millennials Aren’t Afraid of Socialism

So we will be the opposition—but we’re not starting from scratch.... Heterodox economists like Ha-Joon Chang, Mariana Mazzucato, and Stephanie Kelton are reshaping their discipline.

Julia Mead is a 22 year old.

The Nation
Why Millennials Aren’t Afraid of Socialism
Julia Mead

Gwyyn Guilford — Harvard research suggests that an entire global generation has lost faith in democracy

Provocative research. I have several thought about this.

First, was the meaning of "democracy" presumed or specified. If "democracy" is defined as "government of the people, by the people and for the people," then no nation today is living under democracy. Most liberal democracies are republics, which have been controlled by elites historically and this remains true today. Patricians are seldom much concerned about the interests of the plebeians other than with respect to getting their votes periodically in elections.

Secondly, if "democracy" is taken to mean "majority rule," then the United States is not a democracy, for several reasons. Most importantly, minorities are protected from the tyranny of the majority by constitutional rights and a judiciary as a check and balance on the legislative and executive powers. 

In the US, the senate is comprised of two senators from each state regardless of size or population. This protects state sovereignty in a federation. 

Less important — usually — is the role of the electoral college in balancing the interests of different demographic areas, chiefly the state with large urban populations and the states with large rural populations. But this becomes very important when the winner of most electoral votes does not carry a majority.

These aspects of liberal democracy result in some of the paradoxes of liberalism that result in dissatisfaction with political liberalism.

In addition, political liberalism must be harmonized with social and economic liberalism, which engenders further paradoxes of liberalism.

While the study suggests the rise of illiberalism, the obvious question is why this change in attitude has occurred, what it pretends, and how it can be addressed in liberal democracies.

Quartz
Harvard research suggests that an entire global generation has lost faith in democracy
Gwyyn Guilford

ht Jerry Lynn Scofield at Naked Capitalism

Harry Enten — Clinton And Trump Are Losing A Lot Of Young Voters

Younger voters trending third party. Looks like the revolutions is just beginning. Major demographic and political transformation ahead as the Silent Generation and the Boomers leave the political science and the younger generations inherit the earth.

Five Thirty Eight
Clinton And Trump Are Losing A Lot Of Young Voters
Harry Enten

Michael Carney — If you’re over 20, you don’t get social. (But this kid can teach you)

Ask any founder or VC about the most important demographic for social products and you’ll invariably hear, “teens and young adults.” Not only are these users the most engaged, but they’re also the most difficult to reach and fickle once you do.
The challenge is that getting into the psyche of today’s digital natives can be an incredibly difficult task for anyone, be they an investor or an entrepreneur, born in an era before ubiquitous home internet, let alone mobile broadband. Research and analytics firms can paint a high-level picture of usage patterns, but understanding the thinking and motivations behind these usage decisions tends to be little more than guesswork.
Over at Backchannel, a Medium-owned technology publication, 19-year-old UT Austin student Andrew Watts provides one of the most comprehensive and thoughtful views into the mind of sub-millennial social media users I’ve ever seen. For anyone interested in the topic, the entire post deserves a thoughtful read.

What the digital natives are up to in social media.

PandoDaily
If you’re over 20, you don’t get social. (But this kid can teach you)

Michael Carney

Derek Thompson — Homeownership in America Has Collapsed—Don't Blame Millennials

Atlantic Business
Homeownership in America Has Collapsed—Don't Blame Millennials
Derek Thompson

In 2012, Jordan Weissmann and I observed that young people were turning away from homes and cars, the twin engines of the economy.

Zero Hedge — Meet The Millennials: All You Ever Wanted To Know About America's Youth, In Charts

Catching up with youth. A big generation not doing so well. This bodes ill macroeconomically for their passage through the stages of life. The boomers were a force for rising prosperity. It looks like the millennials are going to be a drag.

Zero Hedge
Meet The Millennials: All You Ever Wanted To Know About America's Youth, In Charts
Submitted by Tyler Durden

AP — Study: Millennials Less Trusting Than Gen X Was

A new study has found that, while Americans are mistrustful of each other and institutions -- from government to corporations and the media -- young people are among the least likely age group to have confidence in those institutions, especially since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

AP — The big Story
Study: Millennials Less Trusting Than Gen X Was

Martha Irvine

Yves Smith — The Three Card Monte of Generational Warfare

As usual, incisive analysis from Yves. She doesn't bury the lede or beat around the bush. 

How neoliberalism took over America.

Stock speculator Jay Gould remarked, “I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half.” That, sports fans, is the real foundation of the generational warfare propaganda effort.

Naked Capitalism
The Three Card Monte of Generational Warfare
Yves Smith

Bill Mitchell — Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 3

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime early in 2014. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

Previous part of this series:

▪ Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 1

▪ Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 2 

Chapter 25 Recent Policy Debates

In this Chapter we consider the following policy debates:

▪ 25.1: Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate

▪ 25.2: Twin Deficits and Sustainability Of Budget Deficits

▪ 25.3: Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Optimal Currency Areas, the Bancor, or Floating Rates?

▪ 25.4: Economic Growth: Demand or Supply Constrained?

▪ 25.5: Environmental Sustainability and Economic Growth

25.1 Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate 

[NOTE: I HAVE EDITED THIS SHORT SECTION FROM PART 2]

Bill Mitchell – billy blog

Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 3

Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at the Charles Darwin University, Northern Territory, Australia

Bill Mitchell — Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 2

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime early in 2014. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it. 



Chapter 25 Recent Policy Debates

In this Chapter we consider the following policy debates:
▪ 25.1: Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate
▪ 25.2: Twin Deficits and Sustainability Of Budget Deficits
▪ 25.3: Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Optimal Currency Areas, the Bancor, or Floating Rates?
▪ 25.4: Economic Growth: Demand or Supply Constrained?
▪ 25.5: Environmental Sustainability and Economic Growth

25.1 Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate
[NOTE: I HAVE EDITED THIS SHORT SECTION FROM PART 1]

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Ageing, Social Security, and the Intergenerational Debate – Part 2
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at the Charles Darwin University, Northern Territory, Australia

Bill McBride — Housing bubble: The "Wealth" is Gone, but the Debt Remains

As Norris noted, the bubble wealth is gone, but the debt remains (still high on a historical basis). This was especially hard on younger households since they bought during the housing bubble.

Calculated Risk
Housing bubble: The "Wealth" is Gone, but the Debt Remains
Bill McBride

Tim Knight — The Fourth Turning - Finally: Review

Short review of Strauss and Howe's, The Fourth Turning.

Read it at Zero Hedge

The Fourth Turning - Finally

Tim Knight