Bill McBride — Update: The [St Louis Fed] Recession Probability Chart

Calculated Risk

Update: The Recession Probability Chart

Bill McBride

Cathy O’Neil: Why Nate Silver is Not Just Wrong, but Maliciously Wrong

Ouch. Cathy O'Neil, who blogs as mathbabe, takes Nate to the woodshed for being as out of touch as neoclassical economists with their model-worship.

Naked Capitalism
Cathy O’Neil: Why Nate Silver is Not Just Wrong, but Maliciously Wrong
Cathy O’Neil

Paul Solmon — Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Getting to be time to take the prediction markets seriously.

If you want to follow the presidential race on the prediction markets yourself, here are three links: Intrade;Betfair, where to translate odds like 1.47 into a percentage, you divide 1.47 into 1 (about 68%); and finally IEM -- the Iowa Electronic Markets, where the current odds are in the two boxes on the lower right; Obama, above; Romney, below. Be advised, though, that Intrade and Betfair represent wagering on who becomes President. IEM betting is on who wins the popular vote. [links in the article.]

PBS News Hour
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
Paul Solmon

Allan J. Lichtman — Final prediction: The Keys to White House

In two previous columns, in March 2010 and June 2011, I informed Gazette readers of my early prediction for the presidential election based on the Keys to the White House. Nothing has changed in this final prediction. The Keys still point strongly to an Obama victory next month

The Keys to the White House are a historically based system for predicting the results of American presidential elections. I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a world-renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models.

Retrospectively, the Keys accurately account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980. Prospectively, the keys have predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008. The Keys first predicted a Democratic victory for 2008 in an article in the journal Foresight in February 2006.

Gazette.Net
Allan J. Lichtman: Final prediction: The Keys to White House
Allan J. Lichtman | Distinguished Professor, 
Department of History, American University

Of interest if you are into prediction modeling.