Grice provides a clue for the timing of China's collapse. Since 1990 around 18,000 officials have fled taking an average of around $7 million per flight. Special purpose credit derivatives (perhaps you prefer the term "discredited" derivatives) are a leading indicator for China's hard landing. I call these 'China chaos" derivatives, or "Chanos" derivatives.
If the rate of change of public officials fleeing the country, df/dt > x, where x is yet to be defined, or the acceleration in fleers, d2f/dt2 > y, where y has yet to be defined, or the rate of change of the average amount of loot dl/dt > z, where z is yet to be defined, then conditions of the Chanos Equilibrium have been violated and destabilization will occur.
Stated differently, when you see the absolute amount of embezzled wealth fleeing the country suddenly increase, or when you see a sudden increase in the absolute number of Chinese officials leaving the country on "holiday," or when you see an acceleration in the number of officials leaving the country in a stealthier way, you'll know China is sinking.
Read it at The Huffington Post
Chanos Crash: Timing China's Financial Meltdown
by Janet Tavakoli
1 comment:
The widespread level of cynicism among virtually everyone in academia, media, public... EVERYONE is sure we are going to hell in a hand basket. Might make a contrarian a bit optimistic.
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