Gail Tverberg — What the new 2011 EIA oil supply data shows

Conclusions 

It is easy to find small opportunities where it looks possible to increase oil production, but when a person looks at the total picture, the production of oil and oil substitutes has not been keeping up with the growth rate in oil production in the 1983 to 2005 period. 

Looking ahead, it is hard to see how the situation is going to get better. China and Russia were previously increasing in oil supply, but now seem to be hitting plateaus. Even smaller groupings, such as the FSU excluding Russia, seem to be hitting plateaus.

Future prospects for oil supply instead look to be worse, especially if Iranian exports are taken off line, or if there are unexpected surprises on the downside. One concern is that political disruptions may take oil production offline in additional countries. Anther is that financial disruptions (perhaps related to European debt defaults) may lead to lower oil prices, cutting off some marginal supply.

Read it at Our Finite World
What the new 2011 EIA oil supply data shows
by Gail Tverberg