Wednesday, June 20, 2012

90 million workers won't be needed by 2020 according to global study

Between 90 and 95 million low-skill workers -- or 2.6 percent of the global workforce -- will not be needed by employers by 2020 and will be vulnerable to permanent joblessness, according to a report released Thursday by the McKinsey Global Institute.
Meanwhile, employers around the world will need nearly 45 million more medium-skill workers (with secondary school and vocational training) and 38 to 40 million more high-skill workers (with a college education) than will be available, according to the study.
The rapid growth in the number of low-skill workers, relative to employers' demand for them, is likely to create even more income inequality around the world, the study said.
"The polarization of incomes between high- and low-skill workers could become even more pronounced, slowing the advance in national living standards, and increasing public-sector burdens and social tensions," the study said.
Read it at Huffington Post
90 Million Workers Won't Be Needed By 2020, Study Says
by  Bonnie Kavoussi

15 comments:

Leverage said...

Dramatic.

supermundane said...

The Luddites were essentially right if 200 years before their time.

Clonal said...

A JG/BIG program will definitely be needed. I think that there is a need for the BIG in addition to the JG

Matt Franko said...

Uh oh, now 8 bones for 10 dogs...

paul said...

Time for folks to begin creating their own economy and wean themselves off of th eold one.

Our kids must learn to be self- sufficient.

Tom Hickey said...

And that's just by 2020. How about 2050 or 2100 when the earth's temperature will be several degrees hotter, too, and there will be water shortages. Why are the people in charge sitting on their butts as far as the problems go and multinationals allowed to run around the world buying up water sources? This is insanity.

I'llHaveADouble said...

Only if it's left in the hands of Anglo-American-esque employers who are too stupid and lazy to realize the value of training and apprenticeships, rather than whining about the lack of qualified workers while they sit on their asses waiting for perfectly educated, skilled Adonis workers to just show up.

Matt Franko said...

"Our kids"

They've got to get it done Paul...

Related in the recent Greek elections the below 55 demo went heavy for Syriza.

Hey neo-liberals: Tick, tick, tick, tick....

rsp

JK said...

Tom,

You don't think by 2050-2100 we'll have figured out how to capture unlimited renewable energy? And if we do… unless it's privatized (think: the air on Mars in Total Recall), shouldn't fresh water not be a problem? Won't we just desalinate ocean water?

miller B said...

@ JK

renewable energy and water desalination. we can do both with this.

Marshall Hydrothermal Recovery System


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6-_UTU_bJ0

Tom Hickey said...

I think that there are three issues.

First, available technology. Enough of that is likely already on the drawing boards or in the pipeline.

Second, ability to scale up in time to meet the challenges. Scaling is always an issue.

Thirdly. willingness to ramp up in time. So far the results have been discouraging. The problem is not even widely admitted.

Ryan Harris said...

Dani Rodrik and The Harvard crew think we need to import more low skilled workers... he posted a link to this today:
http://mobile.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/06/obama_and_the_dream_act_america_needs_much_bigger_bolder_immigration_reform_.html


So which is it? We need more cheap low skilled labor or less?

Matt Franko said...

Ryan,

If the US military would let them, the Chinese air Force would perform trans-Pacific sorties complete with mid-air refuelings and parachute people into the west coast communities to cut grass for $20 per lawn...

rsp

Ryan Harris said...

Matt, they probably would and that is the difference, the Chinese Government despite all its failings tries to create opportunities for their citizens.

Tom Hickey said...

"the Chinese Government despite all its failings tries to create opportunities for their citizens"

The Chinese govt knows that if it doesn't keep its part of the bargain the people will revolt and its the "people's army." They cannot depend on a mercenary cadre to put down revolt. This is their biggest concern.

If trust breaks down sufficiently anywhere, there is social unrest the extreme of which is revolt. While modern technology and a professional security force can isolate leaders and prevent the fomenting of revolt, when a spontaneous uprising develops, then the authorities cannot put it down without massive violence and repression that eventually undermines their legitimacy.

It can happen anywhere.